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February Medium/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

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I love the potential in this pattern. With so many players on board (which some of you have already mentioned), it's going to be very difficult for any model to narrow in on a solution till probably 72 hours in or less. There is a massive pipeline of systems out west that have not gotten into any good sampling yet and until then, this will be far from resolved. Overrunning events in the Mid Atlantic are always dicey unless you have a '03 repeat of 1040 Highs funneling down cold air for days. I always live by the old saying, "Sometimes you have to smell the rain to get the heavy snow in close situations." Unfortunately, for you guys in DC, that saying has come back to bite more often then not. I've seen enough snow this year. I would love to see you guys really cash in down there. 

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Winter is quite far from over, post 2/15 may be a different matter. Sad to see Ian climb in with the pessimissm, chiding bunch but that is mostly who is here anyway. Any thoughths of estblishing a thread limited to level headed snow and cold enthusists??

Start up that thread.  I'd be in until I'm out.

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Something I dont get about the weatherbell snowfall maps, we all know they are overdone and have some issue with the temp profiles, but sometimes its just so obvious I dont get how they made that mistake.  If there is an obvious level like 850 that is above 0, it doesnt matter that its below 0 at the surface, that is NOT snow...so why include it in the algorythm.  Shouldn't it simply require that all measured levels be below 0?  Is that too complicated?

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Something I dont get about the weatherbell snowfall maps, we all know they are overdone and have some issue with the temp profiles, but sometimes its just so obvious I dont get how they made that mistake.  If there is an obvious level like 850 that is above 0, it doesnt matter that its below 0 at the surface, that is NOT snow...so why include it in the algorythm.  Shouldn't it simply require that all measured levels be below 0?  Is that too complicated?

 

I can't put my finger on it exactly but it's clearly screwed up. I would need text output and go through all the layers manually to figure it out. Sometimes they show accum snow with warm ground and below zero 850's and also the exact opposite with cold ground above zero 850's. They are the worst snowmaps of all the models with temps on the edges. 

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Winter is quite far from over, post 2/15 may be a different matter. Sad to see Ian climb in with the pessimissm, chiding bunch but that is mostly who is here anyway. Any thoughths of estblishing a thread limited to level headed snow and cold enthusists??

There will be no one in that thread, it is an oxymoron.

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There will be no one in that thread, it is an oxymoron.

I dunno what Tenman is talking about. I like snow and extreme weather. It's my prerogative not to like cold. Next July I'm going to complain about people complaining it's hot and start a hot lovers thread.

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