SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 barely. I see 850's above in leesburg. icy and then we know the rest Well, plenty of time for this to change. As we've seen with the Monday event it went from rain to suppressed in one run so at least we're not out of the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Another day, another solution. On to happy hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Close calls when all systems have tracked North of guidance is not a great sign! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Reforms off of ACY. Parts of SNE get destroyed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Well, plenty of time for this to change. As we've seen with the Monday event it went from rain to suppressed in one run so at least we're not out of the game. when models start going from suppressed to cutter...its pretty much over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 it had rain last night run and of course higher qpf The models are going to be all over the place with this type of pattern. Way too many systems in a progressive flow. Models wont be able to resolve all the variables at longer lead times. Just need to watch the general trends and wait until inside 48 hours to nail down specifics. Feb 1-15th is going to be very fun, looks like at least 4 waves maybe 5 in that period, and while not all will be snow, I highly doubt all will be rain either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 when models start going from suppressed to cutter...its pretty much over But it doesn't sound like a cutter yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 when models start going from suppressed to cutter...its pretty much over It's a weird phenomenon but true most cases. It's not the N trend that is worrisome. It's the strength of the system in the middle of the country. That needs to change or one heck of a perfectly placed pv / 50-50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 But it doesn't sound like a cutter yet. Miller B = NOT GOOD! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 GFS happy hour will save us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Close calls when all systems have tracked North of guidance is not a great sign! Don't have selective memory. The storm a week before xmas trended south from 120 hours out, then at the last minute trended north again inside 24 hours, but from this range definitely was south. There was another wave type storm in early December that I was supposed to get 50 and rain and ended up with some snow and ice up here because it trended south the last 48 hours. The Jan 2 storm didn't really trend north. There are a few others I can remember...some have trended north but some have trended south. I have seen no consistent trend this winter in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 GFS happy hour will save us... Or, yaknow, the next seven days of model runs. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 ensembles will be colder then everyone's back in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 seems like the daytime runs have been crappy and the night time runs have been awesome the past several days. Dosent mean much but just an observation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Or, yaknow, the next seven days of model runs. Sent from my iPhone LOL. Yeah that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 ensembles will be colder then everyone's back in I'm still in. Far from resolved. Heck, a cutter or miller b with a decent hp to the north gets us all in on the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 when models start going from suppressed to cutter...its pretty much over The Feb 4-6 system is probably a long shot to stay all snow down your way, but I could definitely see it ending up a nice front end thump going to an icy situation. The Feb 8-11 time looks like a really good setup at this point. Don't react too much to any one run, models will have to figure out each wave to see how it will affect things upstream. They can't even resolve Monday's system right now let alone nail down specifics with the mid week storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 seems like the daytime runs have been crappy and the night time runs have been awesome the past several days. Dosent mean much but just an observation Sun angle ruins the daytime model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 end of euro run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 seems like the daytime runs have been crappy and the night time runs have been awesome the past several days. Dosent mean much but just an observation Yea I was just thinking that, it has been that way for a few days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 GGEM has a nice storm at day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 end of euro run Do tell... is that the Feb 8-11 threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 good god. euro is going to deliver ian a big bday present Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 end of the euro run is good if you like cold, all snow 8-12" events metro wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Woah... Ian is going to like the end of the EURO... very nice snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 good god. euro is going to deliver ian a big bday present 10 day euro blizzards verify quite a bit for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 end of the euro run is good if you like cold, all snow 8-12" events metro wide when you use that icon...i expected a HECS. not a 8-12 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 good god. euro is going to deliver ian a big bday presentBut his present will go from 10" to 1" over the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I knew it was coming when it was snowing good in shreveport @ 216 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 when you use that icon...i expected a HECS. not a 8-12 lol we arent getting a HECS this year...have you not figured that out yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.