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February Medium/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

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Well, plenty of time for this to change.  As we've seen with the Monday event it went from rain to suppressed in one run so at least we're not out of the game.

when models start going from suppressed to cutter...its pretty much over

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it had rain last night run and of course higher qpf

The models are going to be all over the place with this type of pattern.  Way too many systems in a progressive flow.  Models wont be able to resolve all the variables at longer lead times.  Just need to watch the general trends and wait until inside 48 hours to nail down specifics.  Feb 1-15th is going to be very fun, looks like at least 4 waves maybe 5 in that period, and while not all will be snow, I highly doubt all will be rain either. 

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when models start going from suppressed to cutter...its pretty much over

It's a weird phenomenon but true most cases. 

 

It's not the N trend that is worrisome. It's the strength of the system in the middle of the country. That needs to change or one heck of a perfectly placed pv / 50-50

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Close calls when all systems have tracked North of guidance is not a great sign!

Don't have selective memory.  The storm a week before xmas trended south from 120 hours out, then at the last minute trended north again inside 24 hours, but from this range definitely was south.  There was another wave type storm in early December that I was supposed to get 50 and rain and ended up with some snow and ice up here because it trended south the last 48 hours.  The Jan 2 storm didn't really trend north.  There are a few others I can remember...some have trended north but some have trended south.  I have seen no consistent trend this winter in that regard. 

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when models start going from suppressed to cutter...its pretty much over

The Feb 4-6 system is probably a long shot to stay all snow down your way, but I could definitely see it ending up a nice front end thump going to an icy situation.  The Feb 8-11 time looks like a really good setup at this point.  Don't react too much to any one run, models will have to figure out each wave to see how it will affect things upstream.  They can't even resolve Monday's system right now let alone nail down specifics with the mid week storm. 

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