clueless Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Next. I may be an 18z person myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 DT storm gives us 4-6" before it changes over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Day 11 nice monster Too bad we change over after some decent snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 GFS gives us a new solution every run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 DT storm gives us 4-6" before it changes over sounds like your more bullish on that one than first one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 GFS gives us a new solution every run That's exactly why no one should be living and dying every 6 hours with the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 sounds like your more bullish on that one than first one every model keeps showing it...though gotta love the euro storm on 2/5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 GFS gives us a new solution every run So does the euro. 0z euro and 12z gfs couldn't be further apart attm. I'm going with the euro control so I'm good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 GFS gives us a new solution guess every run fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 GFS gives us a new solution every run Keeps us watching until the zero hour, Winter '14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 That's exactly why no one should be living and dying every 6 hours with the models. I'm focusing on what's first in line myself. Monday. Until that is resolved the next one surely isn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I'm focusing on what's first in line myself. Monday. Until that is resolved the next one surely isn't. I just like that we have 3 chances for some wintry precip within the next 10 days or so... thats all we can ask for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 we need to fast forward to Sunday. Wed-Saturday are going to be awful days if your a weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I just like that we have 3 chances for some wintry precip within the next 10 days or so... thats all we can ask for. Pretty much. and the odds of pure snow on all 3 are terribly slim. We all know the bigger storm next week can cut but just cause the gfs says it will at d7 doesn't mean much to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I'm focusing on what's first in line myself. Monday. Until that is resolved the next one surely isn't. we need to fast forward to Sunday. Wed-Saturday are going to be awful days if your a weenie True Bob. One system at a time. I am okay with the warm up. My driveway is still frozen and it is a b to get down it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 GFS 240hr shows a stratosphere warming. I don't know if this will end up reinforcing or breaking down the current blocking pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I am more concerned that the 6z GEFS shifted north for the first time then over any run of the op. They had been a rock the last few days. Hopefully they shift back south at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Wes retired once already and this upcoming stretch of complex wx might push him into a second retirement. Not an easy task to see all the possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 GFS 240hr shows a stratosphere warming. I don't know if this will end up reinforcing or breaking down the current blocking pattern. NH_TMP_10mb_240.gif Should help to increase heights over Greenland. We will have our -NAO...by March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Well for what its worth the Canadian gives us some decent front end snow/ice before we all get screwed by rain....Back to our typical Mid Atlantic moisture laden storms but flirting with the rain line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 12z gefs is pretty supportive of the op for midweek storm. Monday has a big mixed bag though. Solutions are all over the place. We better hope the euro doesn't cave to a cutter or the writing will begin today. Not saying big changes can't happen but when you start seeing ops and ens showing lotsa cutters it harder to go backwards for whatever reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 12z gefs is pretty supportive of the op for midweek storm. Monday has a big mixed bag though. Solutions are all over the place. We better hope the euro doesn't cave to a cutter or the writing will begin today. Not saying big changes can't happen but when you start seeing ops and ens showing lotsa cutters it harder to go backwards for whatever reason. Ninja'd. Looks like ~4 of the GEFS members support the snowier solution on Monday. Several more have big woundup rainy cutters. Midweek looks pretty rainy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Ninja'd. Looks like ~4 of the GEFS members support the snowier solution on Monday. Several more have big woundup rainy cutters. Midweek looks pretty rainy. Monday is definitely in play. Midweek is still way up in the air. My post probably sounded worse than it is. It doesn't take much to change the entire solution. Something as simple as a weaker vort does it. EPS members have been insanely bullish for the last 2-3 days and they didn't back down at all last night. They are clearly seeing "something". Probably a weaker vort with strung out precip field if I had to guess. And it's probably good I don't have access to surface panels. 51 members will make your head spin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Strong signal for a "colder" system in the Feb 8-10 period. That one is probably the best shot of all the waves coming up for the DC area. GEFS not great for next week...kinda evolving towards several weaker frontal waves but with the boundary starting out further north, earlier runs had a more beefed up system over the weekend sinking the baroclinic zone south. One interesting thing to watch is the GEFS does imply the low ends up on the coast and the cold comes in towards the end...whole setup right now on the GEFS reminds me a bit of March 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Light snow monday on the euro here. Inconsequential verbatim. Little central va jackpot of 1-2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Light snow monday on the euro here. Inconsequential verbatim. Little central va jackpot of 1-2. Deliver good news for the next one. I just want to say,good luck, we're all counting on you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Light snow monday on the euro here. Inconsequential verbatim. Little central va jackpot of 1-2. it had rain last night run and of course higher qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 The euro is good if you live in Leesburg or Westminster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 The euro is good if you live in Leesburg or Westminster so that also went north:(? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 The euro is good if you live in Leesburg or Westminster barely. I see 850's above in leesburg. icy and then we know the rest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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