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February Medium/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

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I just like that we have 3 chances for some wintry precip within the next 10 days or so... thats all we can ask for. 

 

Pretty much. and the odds of pure snow on all 3 are terribly slim. We all know the bigger storm next week can cut but just cause the gfs says it will at d7 doesn't mean much to me. 

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I'm focusing on what's first in line myself. Monday. Until that is resolved the next one surely isn't.

we need to fast forward to Sunday. Wed-Saturday are going to be awful days if your a weenie

True Bob. One system at a time.

I am okay with the warm up. My driveway is still frozen and it is a b to get down it.

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12z gefs is pretty supportive of the op for midweek storm. Monday has a big mixed bag though. Solutions are all over the place. 

 

We better hope the euro doesn't cave to a cutter or the writing will begin today. Not saying big changes can't happen but when you start seeing ops and ens showing lotsa cutters it harder to go backwards for whatever reason. 

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12z gefs is pretty supportive of the op for midweek storm. Monday has a big mixed bag though. Solutions are all over the place. 

 

We better hope the euro doesn't cave to a cutter or the writing will begin today. Not saying big changes can't happen but when you start seeing ops and ens showing lotsa cutters it harder to go backwards for whatever reason. 

Ninja'd.  Looks like ~4 of the GEFS members support the snowier solution on Monday.  Several more have big woundup rainy cutters.  Midweek looks pretty rainy.  

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Ninja'd.  Looks like ~4 of the GEFS members support the snowier solution on Monday.  Several more have big woundup rainy cutters.  Midweek looks pretty rainy.  

 

Monday is definitely in play. 

 

Midweek is still way up in the air. My post probably sounded worse than it is. It doesn't take much to change the entire solution. Something as simple as a weaker vort does it. 

 

EPS members have been insanely bullish for the last 2-3 days and they didn't back down at all last night. They are clearly seeing "something". Probably a weaker vort with strung out precip field if I had to guess. And it's probably good I don't have access to surface panels. 51 members will make your head spin. 

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Strong signal for a "colder" system in the Feb 8-10 period.  That one is probably the best shot of all the waves coming up for the DC area.  GEFS not great for next week...kinda evolving towards several weaker frontal waves but with the boundary starting out further north, earlier runs had a more beefed up system over the weekend sinking the baroclinic zone south.  One interesting thing to watch is the GEFS does imply the low ends up on the coast and the cold comes in towards the end...whole setup right now on the GEFS reminds me a bit of March 2007. 

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Well, plenty of time for this to change.  As we've seen with the Monday event it went from rain to suppressed in one run so at least we're not out of the game.

when models start going from suppressed to cutter...its pretty much over

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it had rain last night run and of course higher qpf

The models are going to be all over the place with this type of pattern.  Way too many systems in a progressive flow.  Models wont be able to resolve all the variables at longer lead times.  Just need to watch the general trends and wait until inside 48 hours to nail down specifics.  Feb 1-15th is going to be very fun, looks like at least 4 waves maybe 5 in that period, and while not all will be snow, I highly doubt all will be rain either. 

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when models start going from suppressed to cutter...its pretty much over

It's a weird phenomenon but true most cases. 

 

It's not the N trend that is worrisome. It's the strength of the system in the middle of the country. That needs to change or one heck of a perfectly placed pv / 50-50

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Close calls when all systems have tracked North of guidance is not a great sign!

Don't have selective memory.  The storm a week before xmas trended south from 120 hours out, then at the last minute trended north again inside 24 hours, but from this range definitely was south.  There was another wave type storm in early December that I was supposed to get 50 and rain and ended up with some snow and ice up here because it trended south the last 48 hours.  The Jan 2 storm didn't really trend north.  There are a few others I can remember...some have trended north but some have trended south.  I have seen no consistent trend this winter in that regard. 

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