WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2014 Author Share Posted February 6, 2014 On 2/6/2014 at 4:50 PM, Ji said: I remember Raleighwx saying earlier this winter that none of his analogs showed a -NAO. he was right. Terrible Atlantic all winter http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_ensm.shtml Last year's neg NAO did nothing. Nothing. This year has been a better winter, by far, than last. Too much emphasis around here is placed on trying to get an 18" snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 On 2/6/2014 at 5:19 PM, yoda said: Lock the 12z GGEM please.. 37mm (~1.5" QPF) of snow... the H in NE does just enough to keep us in a snowstorm with good enough temps The most important thing is less interaction with the gl low. The gfs would be a good hit without it as well. Still would probably mix but certainly a more frozen outcome than as depicted. I think we should all accept a mixed event though if anything at all. Sure it could trend better but a retreating hp cannot be overlooked regardless of the gl low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 On 2/6/2014 at 5:28 PM, Bob Chill said: The most important thing is less interaction with the gl low. The gfs would be a good hit without it as well. Still would probably mix but certainly a more frozen outcome than as depicted. I think we should all accept a mixed event though if anything at all. Sure it could trend better but a retreating hp cannot be overlooked regardless of the gl low. True, we should all accept that we will mix and temper our expectations accordingly. FWIW, 12z UKIE at 144 has a 1033 H around Buffalo and a 1011 L in the GOM south of Mobile AL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 GEFS has the typical mixed bag of solutions. Take your pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I think it is pretty clear we might scrape an inch here or there...If we are lucky maybe a mixy 2-4" storm....but beyond that any sizable storm is complete fantasy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 On 2/6/2014 at 5:35 PM, Bob Chill said: GEFS has the typical mixed bag of solutions. Take your pick. I'll pick the Canadian at 168 hrs. Alex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 On 2/6/2014 at 5:37 PM, mitchnick said: I'll pick the Canadian at 168 hrs. Alex 0% chance a big storm is happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 On 2/6/2014 at 5:37 PM, zwyts said: I think it is pretty clear we might scrape an inch here or there...If we are lucky maybe a mixy 2-4" storm....but beyond that any sizable storm is complete fantasy I think we're on the same page with this one. A good hit requires a front running piece that is now absent. I don't think it's coming back either. So we rely on a coastal type system with a retreating hp and an added bonus of a possible gl glow screwing up midlevel flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 On 2/6/2014 at 5:39 PM, zwyts said: 0% chance a big storm is happening sorry, the correct question would have been "what is hopeless" thanks for playing....we have some great parting gifts like screen saver panels of the JMA model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 On 2/6/2014 at 5:39 PM, zwyts said: 0% chance a big storm is happening Lol.... Modeled snow again showing up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 On 2/6/2014 at 5:39 PM, zwyts said: 0% chance a big storm is happening See you in a few minutes for the Euro. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 On 2/6/2014 at 5:35 PM, Bob Chill said: GEFS has the typical mixed bag of solutions. Take your pick. This pattern is unusually unpredictable. Fast flow off the pacific with little in the way of ridging in the west and no real western Atlantic block has always been a forecast nightmare sometime even into the day 2 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 On 2/6/2014 at 5:57 PM, usedtobe said: This pattern is unusually unpredictable. Fast flow off the pacific with little in the way of ridging in the west and no real western Atlantic block has always been a forecast nightmare sometime even into the day 2 range. it is almost useless and wasted breath to keep watching for things 5+ days out given the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 On 2/6/2014 at 5:39 PM, zwyts said: 0% chance a big storm is happening Its very unlikely but DC has lucked its way to at least a moderate snowfall in flawed patterns before. Feb 2006 and Jan 2011 come to mind. I totally understand that pessimism given recent history but you never see it coming until it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 It's a pretty big hit for far NW burbs...high sliding off and low to our west hurts...still shows the front end thump again...I imagine this will trend worse for DC as we get close in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 On 2/6/2014 at 6:34 PM, zwyts said: It's a pretty big hit for far NW burbs...high sliding off and low to our west hurts...still shows the front end thump again...I imagine this will trend worse for DC as we get close in As long as we get like as 3-5 incher in front I dont mind really.... yes, we all want it to be all snow, but we must take what we can get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 On 2/6/2014 at 6:36 PM, yoda said: As long as we get like as 3-5 incher in front I dont mind really.... yes, we all want it to be all snow, but we must take what we can get It probably won't happen...my guess is mostly sleet/rain for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 156 is nicely cold @ 850 for everyone but retreats @ 162. Zero right overhead @ DC. Plenty of precip in front. About .8 areawide. DC would be mostly snow up to 162 as well. It's a great fantasy run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 On 2/6/2014 at 6:38 PM, zwyts said: It probably won't happen...my guess is mostly sleet/rain for us That is true the way this winter has gone... but I was stating if there was a supposed thump... i am sure most of us would take a 2-4/3-5 and run with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 On 2/6/2014 at 6:38 PM, zwyts said: It probably won't happen...my guess is mostly sleet/rain for us It's pretty cold the night before and leading in. I suppose verbatim you could say the retreating airmass overperforms. It's almost all snow for DC. Cut it in half and still a solid run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 On 2/6/2014 at 6:34 PM, zwyts said: It's a pretty big hit for far NW burbs...high sliding off and low to our west hurts...still shows the front end thump again...I imagine this will trend worse for DC as we get close in yup. what's the thump looking like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 On 2/6/2014 at 6:34 PM, zwyts said: It's a pretty big hit for far NW burbs...high sliding off and low to our west hurts...still shows the front end thump again...I imagine this will trend worse for DC as we get close in I suspect you're right about it trending worse but we still could see accumulating snow on the front end. This is one of those cases where I usually get screwed even more than DCA. The guys way out north and west could be super happy, for them it's a great run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 And there is no GL low on this run. F that thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 On 2/6/2014 at 6:38 PM, zwyts said: It probably won't happen...my guess is mostly sleet/rain for us Travel if it happens? We will probably get slop best case scenario. We can easily head up to HGR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 On 2/6/2014 at 6:41 PM, stormtracker said: yup. what's the thump looking like? 6+ verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 On 2/6/2014 at 6:42 PM, Bob Chill said: And there is no GL low on this run. F that thing. Then what low to the west is zwyts talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Gonna buy my valentines day card at the Hagerstown outlets on the day of the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Big ticket event, just likely not all snow except the favored 81 area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 On 2/6/2014 at 6:42 PM, stormtracker said: Travel if it happens? We will probably get slop best case scenario. We can easily head up to HGR. i might drive to western leesburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 On 2/6/2014 at 6:43 PM, yoda said: Then what low to the west is zwyts talking about? There's a weak wave over the great lakes but no closed circ. @ 150 there's a 1002 but it's north of north dakota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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