Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,862
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Malmax64
    Newest Member
    Malmax64
    Joined

February Medium/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

Recommended Posts

I wasn't implying good. Just saying that the window of chances continues. And it's certainly not a big storm pattern because any big storm would probably be rain.

 

 

Next week is interesting and probably one the few ways DC can get a good snow without relying on coastal development. A plume of moisture from the gulf into an entrenched cold airmass is a way to score a good event when the nearest low pressure system is over 500 miles away. It could go totally to he!! or we can be in the right place at the right time. We'll see. It's a different setup than this weekend. Less complicated at the very least. 

Don't worry it seems less complicated now.  In about 2-3 days we'll all be talking about how complicated it is and how we need timing etc. etc.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.6k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Don't worry it seems less complicated now.  In about 2-3 days we'll all be talking about how complicated it is and how we need timing etc. etc.

 

If the front running precip vanishes it's a complicated mess. That piece (if for some odd reason it happens) isn't complicated. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That has always puzzled me. I can think of no reasonable reason to do that. Seems they would just as likely give us way less than we get.

BTW, go back to posting under "SNOW". I think it's got more mojo.

 

They do, it's just we don't track the days the models show nothing from two weeks out...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

. I think the models tend to want to phase things or amp systems in the longer ranges when small wrenches in the plan don't show up

Then when we get closer they pick up all the smaller scale intricate parts that can mess it up if not timed right and it falls apart. Just seems that way I have no data to back it up.

 

Good post.  I never really thought about it like that.  Makes a lot of sense.

 

. I think the models tend to want to phase things or amp systems in the longer ranges when small wrenches in the plan don't show up

Then when we get closer they pick up all the smaller scale intricate parts that can mess it up if not timed right and it falls apart. Just seems that way I have no data to back it up.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If one were to take the verbatim snow output from each 384-hour GFS run across the season and add that number together, it'd be interesting to see how that would compare to the measured snowfall over 384-hour increments starting from 0z, 6z, 12z, and 18z each day of the season.

 

 

I agree that is an interesting question :-)

 

I actually started a little side project this season based on question is "18z really happy hour" and the broader question of "How much snow was modeled versus how much actually fell" at various forecast lead times.

 

I have a script that grabs the Cobb data and stores it in a time series for each model run of 0/6/12/18z.  I do it for each model run of GFS and NAM looking and put it in 24 bins with lead times of 24, 48 and 72 plus  96 and 120 on the GFS for each DC area airport.  I have not automated it yet so I have a bunch of gaps in the data, but here is an example of the raw output from the most recent model runs

 

Screen%20Shot%202014-02-05%20at%208.31.1

 

And a visual of the 24 hour accumulated snowfall time series for the 12z GFS at 24 and 120 hr lead times.

 

Screen%20Shot%202014-02-05%20at%208.42.0

 

 

Screen%20Shot%202014-02-05%20at%208.45.4

 

I need to add the actual snowfall and will probably add some more sophisticated visualization of the data before next season as I also need to prove out some integration with web based visualization tools....so I may have some insight into that question for next season.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I agree that is an interesting question :-)

 

I actually started a little side project this season based on question is "18z really happy hour" and the broader question of "How much snow was modeled versus how much actually fell" at various forecast lead times.

 

I have a script that grabs the Cobb data and stores it in a time series for each model run of 0/6/12/18z.  I do it for each model run of GFS and NAM looking and put it in 24 bins with lead times of 24, 48 and 72 plus  96 and 120 on the GFS for each DC area airport.  I have not automated it yet so I have a bunch of gaps in the data, but here is an example of the raw output from the most recent model runs

 

Screen%20Shot%202014-02-05%20at%208.31.1

 

And a visual of the 24 hour accumulated snowfall time series for the 12z GFS at 24 and 120 hr lead times.

 

Screen%20Shot%202014-02-05%20at%208.42.0

 

 

Screen%20Shot%202014-02-05%20at%208.45.4

 

I need to add the actual snowfall and will probably add some more sophisticated visualization of the data before next season as I also need to prove out some integration with web based visualization tools....so I may have some insight into that question for next season.

 

What an awesome project and idea. Good luck with it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

GFS slides just south of us right before it gets us mid week.  Game on for that one.

Need a little amplification of the PAC ridge to get that northern stream vort to catch up with that monster gulf storm. After  seeing what happened to this weekends storm from a week out, i wouldn't get my hopes up.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

GFS slides just south of us right before it gets us mid week. Game on for that one.

We need to be in the crosshairs of the overunning precip to not rely on the complex evolution of the coastal or even runner

There's a good bit support for that but we won't know for days. I'll only bite on the chance but wirh plenty of risk. Gfs shows a great evolution but we miss the lead precip bullseye. I take comfort missing to the south on this run

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Now we have the euro and gfs ops on board and the euro ensembles look really solid. It's not nearly as complicated as the weekend system. Confluence and pos tilt vort traversing with gulf feed. It's going to be another long week. 

The less complex the better for dc. Thats something I've learned over the years about snowstorms and dc. Overrunning is a good scenario, we'll all score some snow with that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Uh... no its not.  Its a bonafide snowstorm

 

Well, this is what I see...Not like it matters anyway, just saying IT IS above freezing at the surface. 

 

Dark Blue line is the freezing line

 

post-8091-0-20022100-1391666847_thumb.pn

 

It shows most of the snowfall in the burbs as it is too warm for I-95. Though it does look cold enough at 850, so I guess it would snow. Arguing about a CMC 201HR map though is pointless lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well, this is what I see...Not like it matters anyway, just saying IT IS above freezing at the surface.

Dark Blue line is the freezing line

cmc2.png

It shows most of the snowfall in the burbs as it is too warm for I-95. Though it does look cold enough at 850, so I guess it would snow. Arguing about a CMC 201HR map though is pointless lol

Hush it's snow

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...