Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Long range doesn't look quite as dismal on the GEFS today. Certainly a storm signal around Valentine's Day with a +PNA/-NAO/weak -AO and a s/w moving through the eastern CONUS. West based -nao is starting to consistently show on ops and ensembles from this week into the future. Even though the euro d9-10 storm looks warm, the main reason is lakes low influence and ridging into the maritimes. GEFS much better @ h5 for us obviously but this signal is gaining momentum. I doubt we "won't" be tracking things for the next couple weeks. Teleconnections seem to be unusually in our favor for not having any extended warmth this winter. The nao is particularly tough to model outside of medium leads but I don't think all guidance pointing towards some semblance of favorable blocking is a blip or coincidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Expect epic trolling if it fails to deliver I'm going to troll you for not trolling me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'm going to troll you for not trolling me. Sorry, work got in the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 this CFS2 temp map, 850's, has been going the wrong way....OK, writing's on the wall http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/usT850MonInd1.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Might be time to move onto the valentines day unicorn. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 this CFS2 temp map, 850's, has been going the wrong way....OK, writing's on the wall http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/usT850MonInd1.gif At least now it's showing a solution that makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Instead of cluttering up the weekend thread. I'll keep posts about the Wed-Thurs thread in here. EPS run is too good to be true so take it as that. But it shows precip beginning around 7pm tues lasting through 1pm friday on the means. Obviously it won't happen like that but the most encouraging thing is the temps. We barely lose 850's on the averages and the surface is really cold for the first 24 hours or so. Looks like a big overunning event followed by lp tracking from the se and off the coast verbatim on the means. I'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Instead of cluttering up the weekend thread. I'll keep posts about the Wed-Thurs thread in here. EPS run is too good to be true so take it as that. But it shows precip beginning around 7pm tues lasting through 1pm friday on the means. Obviously it won't happen like that but the most encouraging thing is the temps. We barely lose 850's on the averages and the surface is really cold for the first 24 hours or so. Looks like a big overunning event followed by lp tracking from the se and off the coast verbatim on the means. I'm in. What about my backyard in Salisbury? Do we get some fun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 What about my backyard in Salisbury? Do we get some fun? yep, looks like snow through somewhere between 168-174. 850's are close though throughout on the averages but a flip to rain back to snow when the low gets north of us. It really hard to say how it shakes out The one thing that looks strong is a nice overunning snow into entrenched cold air. If that even happens I'll stop caring about anything beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelScott Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Seems like this run of the GFS is gonna be a big hit for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Seems like this run of the GFS is gonna be a big hit for all. Now we have the euro and gfs ops on board and the euro ensembles look really solid. It's not nearly as complicated as the weekend system. Confluence and pos tilt vort traversing with gulf feed. It's going to be another long week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Da hell the GFS doing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Da hell the GFS doing? all this "storm delay" is just giving us less hours to sleep. I stayed up long nights for the feb 8-10 storm...and now i have to extend that into next week. Tough hobby lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelScott Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Now we have the euro and gfs ops on board and the euro ensembles look really solid. It's not nearly as complicated as the weekend system. Confluence and pos tilt vort traversing with gulf feed. It's going to be another long week. Yup. Looks like a big snow/ice event for my latitude. Snow to ice then back to snow at the end. The previous run had the HP much further south in the plains, and it was stronger, too. Ideally we get the storm to come up the coast a bit more and that high to get in place a little faster than what 18z depicts, and then everyone wins. Good signs at this point imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Da hell the GFS doing? The same thing the euro did but it's quicker coming in and leaving. Still a 36 hour all snow event. Just lock that sh!t up now please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Damn..its a long duration type deal too for mid week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The same thing the euro did but it's quicker coming in and leaving. Still a 36 hour all snow event. Just lock that sh!t up now please. This would more than make up for the death of Uni. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 This would more than make up for the death of Uni. I take some comfort into the front end overunning. That's one of the more classic ways we get a moderate event. GFS/GEFS/Euro/EPS now show this potential. How the coastal works gets muddy and tricky. But if we can score a slug running through the tn valley into entrenched cold I'm good right there. PDII style storm would be a big bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 good thing it is only 6-7 days away It's a lock until it isn't. Right now it's a lock. Lets see how many runs in a row give us overunning before the rug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 We have to get one of these storms. Just please... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I'm punting the whole period, because I need to go to sleep before 2am....every storm that shows up at day 6+ keeps me up longer... If only I really believed it.... maybe a couple days but this one will suck us both down the timesuckdrain. You know it and I know it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 good thing it is only 6-7 days away Yes, but it's only 2 days away from being 5 days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 not really...models tend to give us way more snow than we get... I don't need one of the crazy HECS, or even a MECS. Just another 2-4 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 not really...models tend to give us way more snow than we get... That has always puzzled me. I can think of no reasonable reason to do that. Seems they would just as likely give us way less than we get. BTW, go back to posting under "SNOW". I think it's got more mojo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 Yes, but it's only 2 days away from being 5 days away And this day is almost over. So it's really like only 6.5 days away so it's like 2 days from being 4.5 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anyweather Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I'm punting the whole period, because I need to go to sleep before 2am....every storm that shows up at day 6+ keeps me up longer... Have you tried coffee? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 EPS now mostly below normal through the entire 15 days. The warmup seems to keep getting pushed. EPS caved to the GEFS this time. We'll see how it shakes out. Looks like we get enough ridging in the sw and higher heights near the pole to keep us in good shape temps wise for snow chances. EPS is pretty wet d10-15 too. It's not a classic pattern at all but one that has cold nearby and gulf/pac open for businesses. ETA: EPS snow output very bullish for next week. yea, I know I know....we've heard this before. DC is 2" on the means for the weekend and 5" for next week. Only one member shows no snow for next week. That isn't very common at this lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 I just think the models have certain biases in the longer range...and they tend to show events that are unsupported by the pattern I guess they have cold biases. Otherwise, you'd think they would show plenty of storms that are warmer than they end up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I just think the models have certain biases in the longer range...and they tend to show events that are unsupported by the pattern. I think the models tend to want to phase things or amp systems in the longer ranges when small wrenches in the plan don't show upThen when we get closer they pick up all the smaller scale intricate parts that can mess it up if not timed right and it falls apart. Just seems that way I have no data to back it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 It's a pretty bad PAC....and it gets worse....I think a 1-3/2-4" type event seems the most likely in the next 2 weeks, perhaps more than 1....but I highly highly doubt DC gets an event over 4" I wasn't implying good. Just saying that the window of chances continues. And it's certainly not a big storm pattern because any big storm would probably be rain. Next week is interesting and probably one the few ways DC can get a good snow without relying on coastal development. A plume of moisture from the gulf into an entrenched cold airmass is a way to score a good event when the nearest low pressure system is over 500 miles away. It could go totally to he!! or we can be in the right place at the right time. We'll see. It's a different setup than this weekend. Less complicated at the very least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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