Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,862
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Malmax64
    Newest Member
    Malmax64
    Joined

February Medium/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.6k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

18Z GFS again showing significant icing for western MD and Eastern WV valley locations Tuesday night. That solution keeps coming up on models. If we can lay down some snow on Monday, maybe it will be 28 instead of 31 degree FZRA overnight.

ETA: And, the model does it again on Saturday for the same areas. Long duration ice storm with 24 hours of freezing precip.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Something weird going on with my wunderground forecast for the week after this one.  I mean, I hope it's right, but no way....

 

Tuesday Night
nt_flurries.gif Partly cloudy with a few scattered snow flurries. Low 22F. Winds light and variable.
Wednesday
flurries.gif Mostly cloudy with scattered snow flurries mainly during the morning. High 38F. Winds light and variable.
Wednesday Night
nt_flurries.gif Mostly cloudy in the evening then scattered snow flurries possible after midnight. Low near 25F. Winds light and variable.
Thursday
snow.gif Periods of light snow. High 36F. Winds N at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 60%. About one inch of snow expected.
Thursday Night
nt_snow.gif Cloudy with some light snow. Low 22F. Winds NNW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 60%. About one inch of snow expected.
Friday
snow.gif Cloudy with some light snow. High 33F. Winds NW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 50%. Snow accumulations less than one inch.
Friday Night
nt_snow.gif Periods of light snow. Low 16F. Winds NNW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 60%. 1 to 3 inches of snow expected.
Saturday
snow.gif Light snow during the morning will taper off as a few snow showers during the afternoon. High around 35F. Winds NW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 60%. Snow accumulations less than one inch.
Saturday Night
nt_chancesnow.gif Becoming partly cloudy later with any flurries or snow showers ending by midnight. Low 22F. Winds WNW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 30%.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Is it just me or GEFS trending colder for the Feb 9 event?

The entire evolution of the period is complicated and very much unknown. We are going to see all kinds of looks. The euro has been showing multiple pieces ejecting for a couple days. Now the gfs is going that way. Heights to our north and progress of the vort are unresolved.

The period will likely produce frozen precip here. Beyond that is tricky but a nice all snow coastal is very low probability as it stands right now.

Gefs members show a myriad of possibilities. Expect every op run to toss out something new every 6-12 hours for a while.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

And of course 2 minutes after I post the gfs spits out a perfect miller b for our latitude.

It's a stout hp in front. That's why I feel odds of frozen are solid. Confluence and heights north of us will bounce all over. Lets just relish the run for now and expect it to be gone in 6 hours.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

a miller B developing over coastal SC? Don't think so...

Glad to see a snowy solution, even with my location going over to rain.

If a bowling ball closed ul low actually happens then it's a viable solution overall. That big 1040hp gets locked in for a bit and puts the brakes on an easy cut.

The period is still wide open but tricky as F. Good times

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well... thats a new wrinkle :lol:

 

GFS tonight keeps a nice 1040H in Quebec and away to snow we go... though the transfer takes a LONG time... its a nice Day 8 solution from the 00z GFS tonight... very snowy... too bad it will change at 06z

 

Yeah, have to say now *that* wasn't exactly what I expected.  In a good way!  I thought something might be up when it seemed that high was in a better place and the precip was coming in more from the south.  That, and the vort was really diving south compared to previously.

 

 

And of course 2 minutes after I post the gfs spits out a perfect miller b for our latitude.

It's a stout hp in front. That's why I feel odds of frozen are solid. Confluence and heights north of us will bounce all over. Lets just relish the run for now and expect it to be gone in 6 hours.

 

That confluence seemed to be getting stronger in the last couple or so cycles of the GFS, if I've interpreted things somewhat correctly.  I believe others noted the Euro had better confluence the past few runs compared to the GFS.  So this could be a trend, or could just be bouncing back and forth.  But after pushing the low as far west as Chicago, it's backed off from that extreme (I think there was even a run where the surface low appeared to actually move *northwest*, maybe the time it ended up in Chicago).  It may...make that probably will...change again, but I'm glad to see that a good solution can still be depicted in the op GFS.  It was getting pretty bad seeing a cutter time after time the past couple of days.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If a bowling ball closed ul low actually happens then it's a viable solution overall. That big 1040hp gets locked in for a bit and puts the brakes on an easy cut.

The period is still wide open but tricky as F. Good times

 

I agree, as modeled.

 

Just have a hard time seeing that in reality.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...