eurojosh Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 It's a perfect dance of hp to the north, confluence, and good vort track. So much can go wrong but I think we end up with some snow out of the period. Weird seeing such a signal with a sketchy pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 4:35 PM, Bob Chill said: It's a perfect dance of hp to the north, confluence, and good vort track. So much can go wrong but I think we end up with some snow out of the period. Weird seeing such a signal with a sketchy pattern. im sure zwyts knows but Im sure we have had 1 or 2 double digit snowstorms in crappy patterns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Everytime you talk about the "unicorn" it makes me think about the Unicorn Key and Peele sketch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 4:35 PM, Bob Chill said: It's a perfect dance of hp to the north, confluence, and good vort track. So much can go wrong but I think we end up with some snow out of the period. Weird seeing such a signal with a sketchy pattern. We just need to get it under 180 hours...that's still sketchy time, but at least it's well under truncation. Once we get it to 144, it's Adventure Time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 4:36 PM, Ji said: im sure zwyts knows but Im sure we have had 1 or 2 double digit snowstorms in crappy patterns this is how you do it. Killer antecedent airmass and a friendly wall to the north. Even being progressive in nature the airmass leading in is legit. A tight track would still yield good snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The fact that the Euro and its ensembles have been pointing to this period for a few days does help to feel a little more confident that there will be something to track over the next week anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Nice pna spike on the heels and good pv placement. We might not be done for a while. If this next week pans out even close to what we are being fed, i could deal with a warm end to the month and then start tracking next year. Nino chances look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 4:42 PM, zwyts said: we probably flip here in the city based on this run,,,it's tricky with the high sliding off...it is still probably 5-8" for the western burbs and 3-6 for the city.....nice storm...of course not the 16-20" monster for JYO That's on the euro Just keep the track below us. That's all I ask for. I can deal with a mix. I'm becoming a 12z man as of this run. What a door to door fun period. I'm liking the height patterns shaping up in d10-15. Ops and ensembles have some support for weak ridging out west with pac energy riding over top and good pv placement in the east. Long ways out but it's fun to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 4:42 PM, zwyts said: we probably flip here in the city based on this run,,,it's tricky with the high sliding off...it is still probably 5-8" for the western burbs and 3-6 for the city.....nice storm...of course not the 16-20" monster for JYO That's on the euro GFS has a nice storm but its short duration. It would be nice to see 5-6 hours of heavy snow falling but its a 1980s event. Not specical like the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 4:47 PM, Ji said: GFS has a nice storm but its short duration. It would be nice to see 5-6 hours of heavy snow falling but its a 1980s event. Not specical like the euro Lol- you are a tough crowd. The track stayed under us. It's the only thing we should focus on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 4:42 PM, zwyts said: we probably flip here in the city based on this run,,,it's tricky with the high sliding off...it is still probably 5-8" for the western burbs and 3-6 for the city.....nice storm...of course not the 16-20" monster for JYO That's on the euro BWI looks to stay snow per sounding fwiw at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I think we should call the storm after next weekend's storm the "Green Alligator Storm." "Long-necked Geese Storm" will be a triple-phaser in early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 4:52 PM, zwyts said: the euro is pretty unlikely... especially when one considers how many times it has shown a wound up monster this year and has yet to verify once with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 4:37 PM, stormtracker said: We just need to get it under 180 hours...that's still sketchy time, but at least it's well under truncation. Once we get it to 144, it's Adventure Time. Yeah its futile to attempt to extract any details beyond 192 on the GFS. Exact track, R/S line etc forget it until its inside of truncation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 4:42 PM, Bob Chill said: Nice pna spike on the heels and good pv placement. We might not be done for a while. If this next week pans out even close to what we are being fed, i could deal with a warm end to the month and then start tracking next year. Nino chances look good. 6z was building a nice WC ridge towards the end of the run so nice to see it keep it around one run later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harv_poor Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 4:54 PM, mattie g said: I think we should call the storm after next weekend's storm the "Green Alligator Storm." "Long-necked Geese Storm" will be a triple-phaser in early March. Does your reference only make sense to those of us who have been around a few years? There is a commercial at the beginning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 4:42 PM, zwyts said: we probably flip here in the city based on this run,,,it's tricky with the high sliding off...it is still probably 5-8" for the western burbs and 3-6 for the city.....nice storm...of course not the 16-20" monster for JYO That's on the euro I kind of like this idea better than the euro but all are in play, the ensembles from last night showed north of us track runs and great storm runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 5:21 PM, zwyts said: Have you ever seen a 6"+ storm for DC with the pattern we are seeing?..I can't find any....3-6"/4-8" seems like a more reasonable ceiling...not sure about Frederick, etc...they may have gotten pummeled with a similar pattern I haven't....and I've looked pretty closely at all the 8" events since 1950. I haven't looked at all the 6" events so maybe i've missed one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Fringed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 5:27 PM, Ian said: Fringed cmc_snow_acc_east_41.png LOL, there is that ROA-LYN-RIC line again, and once again this winter, to the north of........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 5:27 PM, Ian said: Fringed cmc_snow_acc_east_41.png The dreaded southern fringe.....Good thing its still 9 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 GEFS has the storm signal for sure in d8-10 but as expected, kitchen sink of solutions. Some unfriendly tracks mixed in but some really sweet ones too. We know nothing yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 some historical facts for this winter, based on balto sun front page article , 5 in of ice on bay , icebreakers in almost daily, compared to winter of 77 when the bay froze over I believe a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 5:51 PM, Bob Chill said: GEFS has the storm signal for sure in d8-10 but as expected, kitchen sink of solutions. Some unfriendly tracks mixed in but some really sweet ones too. We know nothing yet. two other mets think coastal solution in line for I believe next weekend!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 GEFS is a weenie run through the end. Overall cold look with pieces of pac energy door to door. West tracks always a risk but it's a great run if you like tracking ghosts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 5:58 PM, Bob Chill said: GEFS is a weenie run through the end. Overall cold look with pieces of pac energy door to door. West tracks always a risk but it's a great run if you like tracking ghosts. Not really. Pretty much every event is rain with a some mixed on the front end. Lots kick the 8th-10th storm either too Far East or west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 5:56 PM, mdsnowlover said: two other mets think coastal solution in line for I believe next weekend!! who? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 5:51 PM, Bob Chill said: GEFS has the storm signal for sure in d8-10 but as expected, kitchen sink of solutions. Some unfriendly tracks mixed in but some really sweet ones too. We know nothing yet. And we won't know for another 6 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 6:02 PM, hosj III said: Not really. Pretty much every event is rain with a some mixed on the front end. Lots kick the 8th-10th storm either too Far East or west. I don't think we are looking at the same thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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