nj2va Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 GGEM has 2-4" next Wednesday and has a low off the coast of SC at hour 240 throwing snow up to central VA. Based on 500 maps, it doesn't look like it'd be coming up the coast but at least it has a low off the coast this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 18z gefs has a big signal for a coastal d9-11. Not all are good solutions but who cares. A lot of support at long leads for "something for somebody" along the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 A day 10 storm you say? It wouldn't be a model run without it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Symblized Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/29/2014 at 10:24 PM, jums300 said: I'm a real rookie at this, so bare with me...When we're talking about these runs right now, are we talking about the GFS? The NYC forum has a good thread on model timing: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39231-model-info/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 12:04 AM, Symblized said: The NYC forum has a good thread on model timing: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39231-model-info/ Thank you! This is really helpful! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/29/2014 at 10:51 PM, psuhoffman said: It's actually the opposite it seems the more amped the wave Monday gets the more it forces the baroclinic zone south for the wed storm. That's what I was thinking as well. I think the recent model runs that looked good for next Wed. all had the first system on Mon. stronger and further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Another "epic pattern" with the payoff always ten days away. I'm sure Icez is stoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 12:25 AM, PhineasC said: Another "epic pattern" with the payoff always ten days away. I'm sure Icez is stoked. He is. As usual. I'm stoked for 50 on Saturday and making my car black again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Just wondering why DK is speculating on next week. Not very prudent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 12:11 AM, HighStakes said: That's what I was thinking as well. I think the recent model runs that looked good for next Wed. all had the first system on Mon. stronger and further north.They have. I think it's a combo of a stronger Monday system suppressing the flow behind it just enough to bring the boundary south some but also prevent a more amped system wed. Each wave will impact the following so runs will bounce around a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/29/2014 at 10:35 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Amen. Surely nobody needs reminding that cad usually gets stronger as we get closer. Some parts of the area do very well with this setup. Be nice to see that thing get to Knoxville and jump to the coast "Some parts of the area..." I wonder who that might be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I've been away a few days so if this has been talked about, I'm sorry but perhaps we shouldn't be greedy here. Wouldn't it be better to get that Wednesday storm to run inland some (sacrifice it, if you will) and get it in a better 50/50 position to allow the 9th/10th to bomb out and slow down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 So does anyone know if this is "sudden and warm" enough to help us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Front end thump on 0z for wednesday Edit: Tuesday Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Here's where things are starting to firm up a little: first system is not dead, but looking pretty bad. Second thing looks like front end snow/ice, change to rain. Unicorn time DT storm looking like the best out of the 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 Tuesday looks fun on the current gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 4:16 AM, stormtracker said: Here's where things are starting to firm up a little: first system is not dead, but looking pretty bad. Second thing looks like front end snow/ice, change to rain. Unicorn time DT storm looking like the best out of the 3 Tuesday would be a big winter storm as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 4:16 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: Tuesday looks fun on the current gfs seems real close to being something better with a few minor tweaks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 4:17 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: Tuesday would be a big winter storm as modeled. very cold surface for everyone, even I95 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Pretty nasty ice storm as modeled on the GFS, even for the metro areas....cold the old weenie lore of CAD gets colder closer be in play? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 4:19 AM, mitchnick said: very cold surface for everyone, even I95 corridor On 1/30/2014 at 4:19 AM, stormtracker said: Pretty nasty ice storm as modeled on the GFS, even for the metro areas....cold the old weenie lore of CAD gets colder closer be in play? GMTA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 4:19 AM, stormtracker said: Pretty nasty ice storm as modeled on the GFS, even for the metro areas....cold the old weenie lore of CAD gets colder closer be in play? Looks like a good snow thump prior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Long duration as well....especially NW Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Major ice storm on gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 4:19 AM, stormtracker said: Pretty nasty ice storm as modeled on the GFS, even for the metro areas....cold the old weenie lore of CAD gets colder closer be in play? That is absolutely not weenie lore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 4:16 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: Tuesday looks fun on the current gfs As modeled now, it does look fun. Certainly not ideal (all snow), but definitely not wall to wall rain. I'd take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 4:20 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: That is absolutely not weenie lore. Sometimes...but I shouldn't have used the word lore. It doesn't always pan out, but most of the time it really does get a bit colder when CAD is involved the closer we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 the southern stream looks fine....it's the ragged looking vortex in Canada that's not giving us any help http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=141ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_141_500_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 4:21 AM, stormtracker said: As modeled now, it does look fun. Certainly not ideal (all snow), but definitely not wall to wall rain. I'd take it. I personally love 3-4 snow followed by a good dose of freezing rain. Actually it's my favorite. White concrete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 PERFECT timing on the GFS, the night before is COLD, clouds stream in early morning just before sunrise, precip gets heaviest while the sun is down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.