WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Figured it was time for a new one. I had decent luck with these last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 If the gfs ens is to be believed, it sure looks active with precip going forward. Give us that, and we will score sooner or later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 On 1/28/2014 at 12:22 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: If the gfs ens is to be believed, it sure looks active with precip going forward. Give us that, and we will score sooner or later. EPS loves the storm next week for some reason. We'll see how it goes. And also paints another 1-1.5 over us d11-15. Idk wtf happened earlier today in the disco thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 On 1/28/2014 at 12:34 AM, Bob Chill said: EPS loves the storm next week for some reason. We'll see how it goes. And also paints another 1-1.5 over us d11-15. Idk wtf happened earlier today in the disco thread. The euro does but has the northern track. the track of the D11-15 it looks like it takes a wave south of us on the sfc plot with some reflection in OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The 2nd one is the one DT likes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 On 1/28/2014 at 12:44 AM, usedtobe said: The euro does but has the northern track. the track of the D11-15 it looks like it takes a wave south of us on the sfc plot with some reflection in OH. Yea, I can't figure out where the euro is getting those snow totals. It kinda makes me think the front is jiuiced and moves laterally before dryslot and/or changeover. 18z gfs hinted at stronger hp to the north keeping us colder on the front. Hard to say how it works out. Models are all over with heights to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Anyway it's DAY11 so who cares. DT has been accurate with his lasts few long range calls but I can't tell what he bases them off of. I can't say the GFS or Euro or ensembles look more promising now than they have all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 So on the 0z GFS, we might be on the good side of the fook line. I have a feeling this run would crush us at 189+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 On 1/28/2014 at 4:31 AM, stormtracker said: So on the 0z GFS, we might be on the good side of the fook line. I have a feeling this run would crush us at 189+ ncep is only out to 165 and it does look like a decent set up at that hour, but we all know how quick that can change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 On 1/28/2014 at 4:33 AM, mitchnick said: ncep is only out to 165 and it does look like a decent set up at that hour, but we all know how quick that can change The run is stuck for me at 192 for some reason, but we are getting crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 On 1/28/2014 at 4:33 AM, mitchnick said: ncep is only out to 165 and it does look like a decent set up at that hour, but we all know how quick that can change I'm up to 192...it looks good...but truncation is coming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 On 1/28/2014 at 4:36 AM, snow. said: The run is stuck for me at 192 for some reason, but we are getting crushed Same. I wish that High was about 200 miles west though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 On 1/28/2014 at 4:36 AM, snow. said: The run is stuck for me at 192 for some reason, but we are getting crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 On 1/28/2014 at 4:37 AM, stormtracker said: Same figures the run breaks on our biggest modeled storm of the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 On 1/28/2014 at 4:37 AM, snow. said: figures the run breaks on our biggest modeled storm of the winter CAD is pretty good...but you know truncation is gonna kill that. Wish we could lock that look in. Probably as good as I've seen it modeled this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 On 1/28/2014 at 4:37 AM, mitchnick said: we switch over, but it is 1.5" QPF, mostly snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 On 1/28/2014 at 4:39 AM, stormtracker said: CAD is pretty good...but you know truncation is gonna kill that. Wish we could lock that look in. Probably as good as I've seen it modeled this year. it's probably 8-12" then we flip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 On 1/28/2014 at 4:37 AM, snow. said: figures the run breaks on our biggest modeled storm of the winter 204 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Nail biter and a lot of days.... Good hp to the north but a double edged sword. The bigger the storm the harder to score. EPS has gotten more bullish the last 4 cycles. I'll hug the higher resolution a solid snow solution for now..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 then a snow to rain event...then a 6" storm after that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 On 1/28/2014 at 4:39 AM, snow. said: we switch over, but it is 1.5" QPF, mostly snow At least its Day 8 But it sounds/looks pretty nice... wish we could lock that run in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 On 1/28/2014 at 4:40 AM, snow. said: it's probably 8-12" then we flip Yeah, but I think truncation "causes" the change over? It's a pretty big deal as modeled though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 On 1/28/2014 at 4:40 AM, snow. said: it's probably 8-12" then we flip Boy how things change in 10 hours around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I thought winter was cancelled at lunch today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 On 1/28/2014 at 4:43 AM, ravensrule said: Boy how things change in 10 hours around here. For whom? What changed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 On 1/28/2014 at 4:43 AM, Bob Chill said: I thought winter was cancelled at lunch today? Don't worry, people will be flipping again tomorrow when the GFS flips again. We can't be pendulums when the models are going from one extreme to the next with these systems...especially in this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 my snow maps have 6-8" for 2/4-5 and then 6-8" for and then 6-8" for the 2/9(Ian Bday) event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 On 1/28/2014 at 4:43 AM, ravensrule said: Boy how things change in 10 hours around here. I've haven't wavered. Chances are all I ask and these aren't even long shots. But they are scary close and that's how we roll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 On 1/28/2014 at 4:43 AM, stormtracker said: For whom? What changed? Apparently you were having happy hour at 12Z today and did not attend the MA funeral going on. I just got back from the funeral home and checked out the models for the first time today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 On 1/28/2014 at 4:43 AM, Bob Chill said: I thought winter was cancelled at lunch today? not me...I had Chicken Fried Salad 2-day for lunch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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