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January 28/29th Storm Model Disco and Obs


NorthArlington101

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I reported 2 inches in Severna Park which was a legitimate 2 inch measurement (no embelishment). I see a spotter in Crownsville (which is directly accross the river from me - and the exact direction the banding I experienced was coming from)also reported two inches. A co-worker who lives further out on the Broadneck Peninsula (about 8 miles away to the east of me) told me he got a legitimate 3 inches and I just saw someone in Annapolis report 3 inches which would have been down stream from him so that falls in line.

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I reported 2 inches in Severna Park which was a legitimate 2 inch measurement (no embelishment). I see a spotter in Crownsville (which is directly accross the river from me - and the exact direction the banding I experienced was coming from)also reported two inches. A co-worker who lives further out on the Broadneck Peninsula (about 8 miles away to the east of me) told me he got a legitimate 3 inches and I just saw someone in Annapolis report 3 inches which would have been down stream from him so that falls in line.

 

I don't know that it follows protocol, but I have used mode to measure for years now...I will take 10 measurements on proper surfaces....If I get 1.2" - twice, 1.4" - 5 times, 1.5"  - twice, and 1.7" - once....my total is 1.4"....usually there isn't that much variance, and if there is, I will take more measurements in more places..Plus I round to the nearest 0.25" because I am not skilled enough to measure by the 1/10th in a city, except for purposes of an official measurement to LWX..early this morning was easy...0.9" - 8 times, 1.0" - twice...the other storms have been easy, except for 1/21...I had to measure for 20 minutes to come up with a total I am comfortable with...

 

There were a lot of overmeasurements on 1/21....I know it was a hard storm...but if someone takes 10 measurements and they get 4, 4, 4.5, 4, 3.75, 5, 5.5, 6, 4, 4.25....a lot of people would report 5", but it is really probably 4.25 or 4.5 if you wanna pump up slightly...

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I don't know that it follows protocol, but I have used mode to measure for years now...I will take 10 measurements on proper surfaces....If I get 1.2" - twice, 1.4" - 5 times, 1.5"  - twice, and 1.7" - once....my total is 1.4"....usually there isn't that much variance, and if there is, I will take more measurements in more places..Plus I round to the nearest 0.25" because I am not skilled enough to measure by the 1/10th in a city, except for purposes of an official measurement to LWX..early this morning was easy...0.9" - 8 times, 1.0" - twice...the other storms have been easy, except for 1/21...I had to measure for 20 minutes to come up with a total I am comfortable with...

 

There were a lot of overmeasurements on 1/21....I know it was a hard storm...but if someone takes 10 measurements and they get 4, 4, 4.5, 4, 3.75, 5, 5.5, 6, 4, 4.25....a lot of people would report 5", but it is really probably 4.25 or 4.5 if you wanna pump up slightly...

I think a good number of people measure in grass and report the highest total they can find. Just a hunch though.

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I think a good number of people measure in grass and report the highest total they can find. Just a hunch though.

 

Could be.. but I do what zwyts did... I take 10 measurements in both grass and flat surface (sidewalk and road)... and then take the average of all of them.  Its what I did for last night's measurement that I sent to LWX via twitter

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Could be.. but I do what zwyts did... I take 10 measurements in both grass and flat surface (sidewalk and road)... and then take the average of all of them.  Its what I did for last night's measurement that I sent to LWX via twitter

 

That isnt what I do if you re-read...I use mode...not average.....and I never measure on sidewalk or road ever no matter what conditions..

 

normally, you will get most of your measurements the same.....and if you get an outlier or 2, you toss them...

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probably..grass measurements should only be taken as a last resort and you have to shave like 20% off...I measured almost 6" a couple times in the grass on 1/21..lol

I thought they try to weed outliers out but you see plenty of odd numbers so maybe not. I mentioned to Jason and Dan after the event maybe it should be a standard reminder pre game on how to measure.
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I don't know that it follows protocol, but I have used mode to measure for years now...I will take 10 measurements on proper surfaces....If I get 1.2" - twice, 1.4" - 5 times, 1.5"  - twice, and 1.7" - once....my total is 1.4"....usually there isn't that much variance, and if there is, I will take more measurements in more places..Plus I round to the nearest 0.25" because I am not skilled enough to measure by the 1/10th in a city, except for purposes of an official measurement to LWX..early this morning was easy...0.9" - 8 times, 1.0" - twice...the other storms have been easy, except for 1/21...I had to measure for 20 minutes to come up with a total I am comfortable with...

 

There were a lot of overmeasurements on 1/21....I know it was a hard storm...but if someone takes 10 measurements and they get 4, 4, 4.5, 4, 3.75, 5, 5.5, 6, 4, 4.25....a lot of people would report 5", but it is really probably 4.25 or 4.5 if you wanna pump up slightly...

 

I always try to get measurements that are off the ground and not affected by any sort of warmth via the ground, trees, houses, etc.  I have one place that is a flat lid protected from wind and it has been my best spot, not for always having the highest amount but for being consistent.  The other places i have tried to use have one thing working against them as listed above: wind, warmth, not elevated.

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I thought they try to weed outliers out but you see plenty of odd numbers so maybe not. I mentioned to Jason and Dan after the event maybe it should be a standard reminder pre game on how to measure.

 

It isn't that hard to measure...even in Mt Pleasant, I would wander around and find a few wooden decks and cartops and tables and  take like 20 measurements within a block or 2 radius, and it is pretty easy to tell what you got...you get the same measurement most of the time...or close...and it is pretty easy to figure out

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Its a dick size competition for lack of a better term.  Everyone wants to be top dog.

 

It's kinda funny at times. I'm like you. I have my spots. They are good. Rarely is there an outlier between them unless it's windy. I don't do 6 hour stuff so I just do my best and wait for the various trained spotter reports nearby and corroborate before I update my totals. Pretty simple stuff and accurate for a hobbyist. 

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I always try to get measurements that are off the ground and not affected by any sort of warmth via the ground, trees, houses, etc.  I have one place that is a flat lid protected from wind and it has been my best spot, not for always having the highest amount but for being consistent.  The other places i have tried to use have one thing working against them as listed above: wind, warmth, not elevated.

 

I have an idea situation now with 7 huge tables, wood and glass, and 2 huge grills with big extended metal surfaces on both sides...still on 1/21 I had to wander around the hood to confirm my total...

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I thought they try to weed outliers out but you see plenty of odd numbers so maybe not. I mentioned to Jason and Dan after the event maybe it should be a standard reminder pre game on how to measure.

This may be one downside of the Weather Ready Nation when NWS listens to everyone.

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I have an idea situation now with 7 huge tables, wood and glass, and 2 huge grills with big extended metal surfaces on both sides...still on 1/21 I had to wander around the hood to confirm my total...

 

Hypothetical.  Lets say you have your 7 spots that you know to have given you reliable totals no matter the type of snow or storm.  You get an average of those 7.  you then walk around to different spots that have no history and those give you totals that are lower than your 7 trusted spots avg.  Do you readjust?  Same for if the randoms were higher totals than your 7 avg?

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Hypothetical.  Lets say you have your 7 spots that you know to have given you reliable totals no matter the type of snow or storm.  You get an average of those 7.  you then walk around to different spots that have no history and those give you totals that are lower than your 7 trusted spots avg.  Do you readjust?  Same for if the randoms were higher totals than your 7 avg?

 

That doesn't happen , but if it does, I'd have to figure out why and go back to the drawing board....I use proper surfaces...there is no reason I would get different totals at some other locations... But I doubt I would adjust given my setup now...If I cant get a proper measurement using a bunch of big tables spread around, glass and wooden,  and 4 big metal grill extenders, I shouldnt be measuring...And I dont ever use average...it isnt the way I measure...If I cant get a common measurement then I keep trying and will walk around...there shouldnt be much variance on most storms...

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LWX didn't use my report...They don't like me very much ;)

They never use mine either though I think it got into the data base since Jason did in his plot of snow amounts. I've even e-mailed to complain and the next storm the same thing happened.  It's funny as they don't have many Calvert county people reporting or they choose not to use many. 

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Nice segment on the Weather Channel showing the condition of neighborhood streets in Atlanta--- it's the classic worst-case scenario for roads: first burst melts on paved segments, but as temps plunge the liquid refreezes leaving a layer of ice under the rest of the snow. The guy was sliding down the street wearing regular shoes as if he were at an ice rink. 

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