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January 28/29th Storm Model Disco and Obs


NorthArlington101

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Say what?

I'd rather have peaks of sunshine that might help with banding later versus having complete overcast skies all day to keep stratus virga hanging around.

 

Let me try to reword some of that...Because stratus-type clouds tend to produce light continuous precipitation, early timing of full overcast skies doesn't always help with producing precipitation. I know I still have a lot to learn and I welcome these comments trying to correct me.

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yea but i've seen some of these systems underperform down there.  probably happens more often than it doesn't.  the system is large, but it wouldn't surprise me if things don't pan out on the high end there, at least in central areas.  it's not exactly a wound up system throwing epic moisture back.

Yea, even though the ocean could enhance the precip, it could also advect warming westward along coastal areas. NWS Eastern Region has mentioned possibly more sleet and freezing rain mixing in from a recent update I read on their facebook page. https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=572774289467407&set=a.259227180822121.60708.143979475680226&type=1

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
254 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A POTENT SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OUT TO
SEA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH OUR AREA
DURING THIS TIME. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND FARTHER NORTH
AND WEST WITH PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED FROM THE SHORTWAVE. SNOW IS
ALREADY FALLING UPSTREAM ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
VIRGINIA. A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN
AREAS. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHER FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN MARYLAND AND THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE LOCATIONS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THAT LATEST RADAR TRENDS TO SEE IF THE ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE
EXTENDED NORTH AND WEST FARTHER INTO THE WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE
METROPOLITAN AREAS AS WELL AS CENTRAL VIRGINIA. FOR NOW...SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND ONE INCH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS.
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good for you.  and i didn't really care when you got shut out in dec.  enjoy the inch of snow.

I'm not sure what you're doing.  We've had a good winter out here, pretty much running neck and neck with anyone on the board.  We also had a better winter than almost everyone last year.  You have somehow found a way to gripe almost constantly.

 

To each his own, but you might try enjoying what does happen more so than complaining about what doesn't.

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I'm surprised the deep south did not close schools and businesses for the whole day, resulting in the traffic disaster down there right now...you would think an ice/snow storm slated to start mid-morning would have caused a whole day closure.

Gives those kids a real-life lesson in dealing with chaos and difficult circumstances. Builds character. Meanwhile, school systems around here will be delayed tomorrow due to sweepable snow.

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