mitchnick Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 18Z NAM http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=024ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_024_precip_ptot.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 i don't have high res yet but it sure looks like dca hits .15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 i don't have high res yet but it sure looks like dca hits .15 Wes is getting crushed after 10pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 18Z NAM actually pushes the .1" line to the west around us but contracts the .25" and .5" lines to our south and east vs. 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 So we have more models on the low end with 0.05-0.1 and the NAM on the high end with 0.15. Sure seems like a good forecast is around an inch in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I can probably speak for the board (except for Ji) when I say a 2-3 hour period of snow with temps in the teens that drops between .5 - 1" of snow would be pretty awesome in my book. It would stick to everything instantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Greensboro and Winston-Salem reporting snow; that wasn't really supposed to happen this early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Wes is getting crushed after 10pm I've only seen the low res version and was happy with it though it did seem drier to the southeast of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Mike Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Mt Holly upgraded Sussex DE and Cape May to Warning 3-5 Other counties on the peninsula further north added in advisory for 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I've only seen the low res version and was happy with it though it did seem drier to the southeast of me. Hi-Res gets 0.25" into the southern half of Calvert county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Wes is getting crushed after 10pm The bright banding feature on the simulated radar is tad to my south. Still I get over .15" which would easily give me 2 inches and might give me 3 if it is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 obligatory sat pic.....nice expansion of clouds to our west in the Ohio Valley http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/us_comp/us_comp_big.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 It would be nice to see the rgem bump @ 18z as well. Not kidding either. I like the rgem overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The bright banding feature on the simulated radar is tad to my south. Still I get over .15" which would easily give me 2 inches and might give me 3 if it is correct. Y'all don't happen to have a NAM qpf spit out for KEZF? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 obligatory sat pic.....nice expansion of clouds to our west in the Ohio Valley http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/us_comp/us_comp_big.html That sat loop makes me want to punch the baja vort right in the mouth for staying home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 kind of a dry look so far to the radar across the carolinas. of course, it's early and all, but i'd be curious to see if they suffer some of the same appalachian filtering effect that we do with that upper level energy swing through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 It would be nice to see the rgem bump @ 18z as well. Not kidding either. I like the rgem overall. So what did it bump us/me to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Sun is peaking again convecting our atmosphere for tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 So does this mean we like the NAM for winter precip now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Sun is peaking again convecting our atmosphere for tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 kind of a dry look so far to the radar across the carolinas. of course, it's early and all, but i'd be curious to see if they suffer some of the same appalachian filtering effect that we do with that upper level energy swing through. They do have the ocean on their side at least in the eastern regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 So does this mean we like the NAM for winter precip now? Only if it verifies, I'd still like to see the GFS wet up a big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 that's all part of the northern shortwave lagging just a bit behind schedule. Adding some lift and energy on the nw edge of the shield. It's probably why ROA seems to getting a bit of a surprise. They have to have an inch by now? Not sure about ROA, looks like ground is white from cameras. Blacksburg looks '1ish' from the cameras. Heck,even I've had a few flurries at 1 and it is just now flurrying again with 10dbz over me on the very NW side of precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 So what did it bump us/me to? Yoda will post the pencil and crayon maps first. I don't have 18z high res yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosi76 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Hi Res NAM looks good Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I can probably speak for the board (except for Ji) when I say a 2-3 hour period of snow with temps in the teens that drops between .5 - 1" of snow would be pretty awesome in my book. It would stick to everything instantly. Just what I'm thinking. Initial snowfall in the last storm was wasted in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Sun is peaking again convecting our atmosphere for tonight. Say what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Only if it verifies, I'd still like to see the GFS wet up a big. nam is definitely huggable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Yoda will post the pencil and crayon maps first. I don't have 18z high res yet. Wes was asking about the RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 They do have the ocean on their side at least in the eastern regions. yea but i've seen some of these systems underperform down there. probably happens more often than it doesn't. the system is large, but it wouldn't surprise me if things don't pan out on the high end there, at least in central areas. it's not exactly a wound up system throwing epic moisture back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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