peribonca Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The hope I have about the NAM being correct from 12z was that it was the only one showing this much precip fall in E TN/ W NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The hope I have about the NAM being correct from 12z was that it was the only one showing this much precip fall in E TN/ W NC. ifit doesn't dial back I'd be stunned...0.06" seems like a good over/under for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 ifit doesn't dial back I'd be stunned...0.06" seems like a good over/under for us It will likely dial back from the .18 to .10 IMO. I think it will sit right at .1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 It will likely dial back from the .18 to .10 IMO. I think it will sit right at .1 15z SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 My guess is the NAM will make some happy and the GFS will slap them to reality! For real, teh fact DC could squeak out an inch from something that was SO far away on models at one time is crazy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 My guess is the NAM will make some happy and the GFS will slap them to reality! For real, teh fact DC could squeak out an inch from something that was SO far away on models at one time is crazy! Well it being so cold and SR's 12:1 or maybe even 15:1 help as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Part of me wants to say radar looks like crap, but the development northwest of Harrisonburg looks a little promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 A bit out of our area, but Im not sure why Wakefield is being slow on the uptake to upgrade OCMD/Salisbury to a storm warning...seems to be enough support for 4-6 inches around there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 A bit out of our area, but Im not sure why Wakefield is being slow on the uptake to upgrade OCMD/Salisbury to a storm warning...seems to be enough support for 4-6 inches around there. It is our area! People live here too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The nam looks pretty good, not great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 NAM looking pretty similar out to 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 surface obs where it is snowing are not impressive you have to get into GA before you get any where near a couple of inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 NAM'ed at happy hour again based of radar sim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 sim rad doesn't look bad should be similar qpf to 12z I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 18z NAM 0.1" contour runs from western balt burbs through IAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 18z NAM 0.1" contour runs from western balt burbs through IAD good news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 18z NAM 0.1" contour runs from western balt burbs through IAD Impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 18z NAM 0.1" contour runs from western balt burbs through IAD Around an inch and a half with ratios? Sweet. Sent from my iPod touch using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Hello NAM, I love you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 the whole system is a whole lot drier than what was progged yesterday we will be lucky with the .1" qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 18z NAM 0.1" contour runs from western balt burbs through IAD Not sure if it means much but I checked the obs in SE thread. Lots of surprised folks that were supposedly on the western edge getting good snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Not sure if it means much but I checked the obs in SE thread. Lots of surprised folks that were supposedly on the western edge getting good snows. sure can't hurt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 30.40 and falling slowly, going to be very close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Not sure if it means much but I checked the obs in SE thread. Lots of surprised folks that were supposedly on the western edge getting good snows. It means the GFS needs to join the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Not sure if it means much but I checked the obs in SE thread. Lots of surprised folks that were supposedly on the western edge getting good snows. also, it's the stuff in eastern TN that we should be concerned with better the expansion there the better we'll be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Still pretty nice look on the NAM sim radar, if we get a few hours of steady snow from this it'll be a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 MDZ013-014-290400-/O.EXB.KLWX.WW.Y.0008.140128T2300Z-140129T1100Z/PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ANNAPOLIS253 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO6 AM EST WEDNESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HASISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW... WHICH IS IN EFFECTFROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY.* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES.* TIMING...TONIGHT. THE STEADIEST SNOW WILL BE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.* TEMPERATURES...TEENS.* WINDS...NORTH-NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I keep looking at downstream RH and thinking there's no way is anything but virga. But ROA is reporting SN- and 49%. So who knows. Nasty day on the gulf coast though. The dry air is not necessarily at the surface, so I wouldn't use that as a tool for determining whether or not it's too dry at the surface to precipitate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 30.40 and falling slowly, going to be very close. I doubt we drop below 30.30 at least until after midnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 also, it's the stuff in eastern TN that we should be concerned with better the expansion there the better we'll be that's all part of the northern shortwave lagging just a bit behind schedule. Adding some lift and energy on the nw edge of the shield. It's probably why ROA seems to getting a bit of a surprise. They have to have an inch by now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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