Deck Pic Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I am guessing you mean much further SE of Wes reading what Bob said yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 It's like half pre 6z and post 6z gym, though I'm guessing you asked because of the timestamp and missed the Thur part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 It's like half pre 6z and post 6z gym, though I'm guessing you asked because of the timestamp and missed the Thur part. Yep, I deleted the message a second after posting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 wxbell is showing the .08-.10 contour just east of dc. Calvert is split in half with .1 / .2. Wxbell maps are pretty, but I am not sure how much I always trust the output compared to SV...SV is clearly west of there with the 0.1" countour....Also wxbell showed no precip with the 15z RAP and we get around 0.05" via NOAA...QPF every single hour and the run supported that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Channel 9 (WUSA) must be taking the NAM full line and sinker with this accum map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Wxbell maps are pretty, but I am not sure how much I always trust the output compared to SV...SV is clearly west of there with the 0.1" countour....Also wxbell showed no precip with the 15z RAP and we get around 0.05" via NOAA...QPF every single hour and the run supported that Well, I'm hugging your SV maps for sure right now. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 JB2 bumped DC and Baltimore (and me) into this 1-3" contour. Shocking I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 DT's final call puts DC, Arlington, and most of Fairfax and PW into 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 It's 12 degrees out...if something can fall...it's gonna add up...lets just hope most don't waste on virga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Well, I'm hugging your SV maps for sure right now. haha It just seems inconsistent sometimes..it is southeast on both RAP and Euro....I mean it is the same data I guess?....but I think it is all extrapolated somehow...not claiming SV maps are always better....I've seen some of them screwy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 It just seems inconsistent sometimes..it is southeast on both RAP and Euro....I mean it is the same data I guess?....but I think it is all extrapolated somehow...not claiming SV maps are always better....I've seen some of them screwy... My other source looks the same as wxbell except the resolution is lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 What a mess in the south. Some schools closed at 9am. Why bother opening? I guess they did put more effort in than FFX. https://twitter.com/spann Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Wxbell maps are pretty, but I am not sure how much I always trust the output compared to SV...SV is clearly west of there with the 0.1" countour....Also wxbell showed no precip with the 15z RAP and we get around 0.05" via NOAA...QPF every single hour and the run supported that The differences between the wxbell maps and the stormVista maps are troubling. How much does SV have over my house. I'm about .11 on WxBell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The differences between the wxbell maps and the stormVista maps are troubling. How much does SV have over my house. I'm about .11 on WxBell. hard to tell...maybe 0.14? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 JB2 bumped DC and Baltimore (and me) into this 1-3" contour. Shocking I know. lol...based on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 15Z RAP... 15Z_RAP_1282014_QPF.jpg Part of why I am dubious, is this map was horribly wrong based on NOAA text output and just looking at the model...gives DCA 0.05"...the wxbell maps are like 50 miles east with that contour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 lol...based on the NAM I'm treading water behind the Tracker dinghy…er boat…er yacht just in case The North Trend starts at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 hard to tell...maybe 0.14? I'll be happy with my .11 or .14. The euro and radar makes me confident we'll see snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 1-3 inch from 95 south & east is not a bad call. It's kind of splitting hairs here whether we get 0.08, 0.1, 0.12 etc... With better than average ratios (1:15 or even 1:20) it justifies the 1-3 inch call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I'll be happy with my .11 or .14. The euro and radar makes me confident we'll see snow. Not sure if it is worth asking Ryan about his maps or Matt Rogers about SV's..usually they are way closer even if subtle differences Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Part of why I am dubious, is this map was horribly wrong based on NOAA text output and just looking at the model...gives DCA 0.05"...the wxbell maps are like 50 miles east with that contour Something was wrong with that RAP run. I sent Ryan Maue a note about it.. but I think the Euro qpf is right other than he has a higher resolution of it than any other source I think.. so there might be some tiny differences on the edges but it looks basically exactly the same as my other source that's not sv but I know is legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 hard to tell...maybe 0.14? I'll be happy with my .11 or .14. The euro and radar makes me confident we'll see snow. You had me at happy Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Something was wrong with that RAP run. I sent Ryan Maue a note about it.. but I think the Euro qpf is right other than he has a higher resolution of it than any other source I think.. so there might be some tiny differences on the edges but it looks basically exactly the same as my other source that's not sv but I know is legit. normally they are closer,.,..not that it usually makes a difference...i mean it will probably just come down to radar and rates and banding and snow growth...I could see anything from just flying flakes and a cartopper to 1"+ if we can get 0.07" or so in here...The NAM is obviously an outlier right now with its liquid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I am going to guess this was based off the NAM run (from NBC4) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Ryan says It's not the same RAP. He's running RAPv2 which is scheduled to go live on Feb 25 (currently running parallel but apparently has better skill). Said he'd update the text for now. http://ruc.noaa.gov/hrrr/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Does that mean we have a RAP battle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Base reflectivity radar shows the edge of precip quite far to the south south, but the composite reflectivity shows some virga all the way to the MD/PA line odd enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 One thing I have noticed is the dewpoint is declining this afternoon, here in Baltimore anyway..BWI now at -9...Maybe Im wrong, but seems to me that would take a lot to overcome, and maybe the models are struggling with portraying whats virga and whats not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I'm treading water behind the Tracker dinghy…er boat…er yacht just in case The North Trend starts at 18z. You and I can make this easy. Nothing to 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Still coming down. Flakes are smaller, but intensity still about the same. Radar also appears to keep rebuilding to the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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