BTRWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Base reflectivity radar shows the edge of precip quite far to the south south, but the composite reflectivity shows some virga all the way to the MD/PA line odd enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 One thing I have noticed is the dewpoint is declining this afternoon, here in Baltimore anyway..BWI now at -9...Maybe Im wrong, but seems to me that would take a lot to overcome, and maybe the models are struggling with portraying whats virga and whats not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I'm treading water behind the Tracker dinghy…er boat…er yacht just in case The North Trend starts at 18z. You and I can make this easy. Nothing to 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Still coming down. Flakes are smaller, but intensity still about the same. Radar also appears to keep rebuilding to the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Does that mean we have a RAP battle? I'll take Doug E Fresh FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 One thing I have noticed is the dewpoint is declining this afternoon, here in Baltimore anyway..BWI now at -9...Maybe Im wrong, but seems to me that would take a lot to overcome, and maybe the models are struggling with portraying whats virga and whats not. Modeled QPF accounts for virga. But, there will be virga for awhile most likely if radar echoes reach us. Although it started snowing in Roanoke with pretty big dewpoint depressions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 17z RAP via Twister looks like 0.08 for DCA... .1 line is just east of I-95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I'm treading water behind the Tracker dinghy…er boat…er yacht just in case The North Trend starts at 18z. I'm with you in the shark water but their is a ticking time bomb on the boat, can the tracker boat crew disable it in time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Modeled QPF accounts for virga. But, there will be virga for awhile most likely if radar echoes reach us. Although it started snowing in Roanoke with pretty big dewpoint depressions. Couldnt higher elevation be a role for Roanoke seeing things fall faster? Ill defer to you, but I would think lower elevations would have a longer lag time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Modeled QPF accounts for virga. But, there will be virga for awhile most likely if radar echoes reach us. Although it started snowing in Roanoke with pretty big dewpoint depressions. I don't have evidence on hand to back it up but I think sfc RH is often a better indicator. It snows plenty with 40%+ or so, which we're already not far off of. I would worry less about dew points and more about just getting precip up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Modeled QPF accounts for virga. But, there will be virga for awhile most likely if radar echoes reach us. Although it started snowing in Roanoke with pretty big dewpoint depressions. I wonder how the lack of sun tonight, when D.C. is being modeled to receive precip, would affect the effects of the high dewpoint depressions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 It's not that bad....at 02z rapped.PNG Yeah... I am pretty much sold on us getting up to an inch and that we will have snowflakes flying... anything else will be gravy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Couldnt higher elevation be a role for Roanoke seeing things fall faster? Ill defer to you, but I would think lower elevations would have a longer lag time. If the column is uniformly dry that might be true. Probably would have to look at a skew-t. I don't have evidence on hand to back it up but I think sfc RH is often a better indicator. It snows plenty with 40%+ or so, which we're already not far off of. I would worry less about dew points and more about just getting precip up here. Yeah, 40-50% is usually a good ROT I'd say. I think we're still advecting in some drier air though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I am hoping 15z SREFs get the .1 line over or just west of DCA in the next 10 mins or so... I think that will be a good check to see if the NAM was full of it at 12z...until the start of the 18z happy hour runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 If the column is uniformly dry that might be true. Probably would have to look at a skew-t. Yeah, 40-50% is usually a good ROT I'd say. I think we're still advecting in some drier air though. Here is 12Z for Blacksburg http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/sounding?region=naconf&TYPE=GIF%3ASKEWT&YEAR=2014&MONTH=01&FROM=2812&TO=2900&STNM=72318 and Dulles http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/sounding?region=naconf&TYPE=GIF%3ASKEWT&YEAR=2014&MONTH=01&FROM=2812&TO=2900&STNM=72403 There does seem to be some similarities with the moist upper levels, but Blacksburg does look to have a thicker moist layer in the low levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Dueling RAPs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I'll take snow You win! LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 is there a RAP-Y? We totally should have RAP ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 If there's a question between models always choose the drier one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I am hoping 15z SREFs get the .1 line over or just west of DCA in the next 10 mins or so... I think that will be a good check to see if the NAM was full of it at 12z...until the start of the 18z happy hour runs Well that wasnt helpful at all... prob ~0.05 at best for DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 0.044" (1.11mm) 17z was about double that from what i saw... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 looks like 0.1" to me? .1 line was east of DCA on the NOAA maps... perhaps you have a better look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 looks like it bisects...I'll have the good maps in 5 minutes Quite possible... was 18z RAP ~0.05? 17z was almost double that (~0.09 or so) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 1.11mm...so yes Guess we pray that the 18z NAM holds on to its goofy 12z run then... sounds like we are settling in around 0.05 to 0.07 QPF... good enough for just under to around an inch at DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The hope I have about the NAM being correct from 12z was that it was the only one showing this much precip fall in E TN/ W NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 ifit doesn't dial back I'd be stunned...0.06" seems like a good over/under for us It will likely dial back from the .18 to .10 IMO. I think it will sit right at .1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 My guess is the NAM will make some happy and the GFS will slap them to reality! For real, teh fact DC could squeak out an inch from something that was SO far away on models at one time is crazy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 My guess is the NAM will make some happy and the GFS will slap them to reality! For real, teh fact DC could squeak out an inch from something that was SO far away on models at one time is crazy! Well it being so cold and SR's 12:1 or maybe even 15:1 help as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Part of me wants to say radar looks like crap, but the development northwest of Harrisonburg looks a little promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 A bit out of our area, but Im not sure why Wakefield is being slow on the uptake to upgrade OCMD/Salisbury to a storm warning...seems to be enough support for 4-6 inches around there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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