Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Really coming down right now. Was expecting only a dusting or flurries. Roads and sidewalks starting to get coated. Good to hear. Looks like it will hold for some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Growing up, back in the days of NOAA weather radio and no internet, my rule of thumb was always that DC follows ROA when it comes to snow. How well does that method work from your experience? Have you noticed any particular trend relative to Downtown? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 That band over Roanoke looks sweet, seems like GFS will bust low for that area for now, has total precip under 0.1 up to 0z there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 How well does that method work from your experience? Have you noticed any particular trend relative to Downtown? I've seen it fail quite a bit with suppressed systems. With strong systems, it works pretty well, for flat waves, not so good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Bah, Wes beat me to it. Grew up just outside of DC and it seemed to work ok. And it makes sense in general. Miller B's and clippers don't tend to hit either. For Miller A's it's a good predictor (since both tend to get most snow before the CCB sets up). Works well in warm advection events. It's an ok predictor on southern stream systems b/c ROA doesn't tend to get much unless there is a NE'ly component. Although the last one has the most exceptions, which is unfortunate given the set-up today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Euro has the 0.1" contour running right through DC proper Thats great news to hear IMO... how close is the .2 contour? Wes land? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 wxbell is showing the .08-.10 contour just east of dc. Calvert is split in half with .1 / .2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Euro has the 0.1" contour running right through DC proper I keep looking at downstream RH and thinking there's no way is anything but virga. But ROA is reporting SN- and 49%. So who knows. Nasty day on the gulf coast though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Something to freshen up the ground would be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 0.25" much further....not sure how useful the globals are right now but seeing the euro "wet" and support the NAM is always encouraging I am guessing you mean much further SE of Wes reading what Bob said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 It's like half pre 6z and post 6z gym, though I'm guessing you asked because of the timestamp and missed the Thur part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 It's like half pre 6z and post 6z gym, though I'm guessing you asked because of the timestamp and missed the Thur part. Yep, I deleted the message a second after posting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Channel 9 (WUSA) must be taking the NAM full line and sinker with this accum map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Wxbell maps are pretty, but I am not sure how much I always trust the output compared to SV...SV is clearly west of there with the 0.1" countour....Also wxbell showed no precip with the 15z RAP and we get around 0.05" via NOAA...QPF every single hour and the run supported that Well, I'm hugging your SV maps for sure right now. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 JB2 bumped DC and Baltimore (and me) into this 1-3" contour. Shocking I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 DT's final call puts DC, Arlington, and most of Fairfax and PW into 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 It's 12 degrees out...if something can fall...it's gonna add up...lets just hope most don't waste on virga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 It just seems inconsistent sometimes..it is southeast on both RAP and Euro....I mean it is the same data I guess?....but I think it is all extrapolated somehow...not claiming SV maps are always better....I've seen some of them screwy... My other source looks the same as wxbell except the resolution is lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 What a mess in the south. Some schools closed at 9am. Why bother opening? I guess they did put more effort in than FFX. https://twitter.com/spann Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Wxbell maps are pretty, but I am not sure how much I always trust the output compared to SV...SV is clearly west of there with the 0.1" countour....Also wxbell showed no precip with the 15z RAP and we get around 0.05" via NOAA...QPF every single hour and the run supported that The differences between the wxbell maps and the stormVista maps are troubling. How much does SV have over my house. I'm about .11 on WxBell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 JB2 bumped DC and Baltimore (and me) into this 1-3" contour. Shocking I know. lol...based on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 lol...based on the NAM I'm treading water behind the Tracker dinghy…er boat…er yacht just in case The North Trend starts at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 hard to tell...maybe 0.14? I'll be happy with my .11 or .14. The euro and radar makes me confident we'll see snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 1-3 inch from 95 south & east is not a bad call. It's kind of splitting hairs here whether we get 0.08, 0.1, 0.12 etc... With better than average ratios (1:15 or even 1:20) it justifies the 1-3 inch call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Part of why I am dubious, is this map was horribly wrong based on NOAA text output and just looking at the model...gives DCA 0.05"...the wxbell maps are like 50 miles east with that contour Something was wrong with that RAP run. I sent Ryan Maue a note about it.. but I think the Euro qpf is right other than he has a higher resolution of it than any other source I think.. so there might be some tiny differences on the edges but it looks basically exactly the same as my other source that's not sv but I know is legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 hard to tell...maybe 0.14? I'll be happy with my .11 or .14. The euro and radar makes me confident we'll see snow. You had me at happy Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I am going to guess this was based off the NAM run (from NBC4) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Ryan says It's not the same RAP. He's running RAPv2 which is scheduled to go live on Feb 25 (currently running parallel but apparently has better skill). Said he'd update the text for now. http://ruc.noaa.gov/hrrr/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Does that mean we have a RAP battle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.