SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 15Z RAP... 15Z_RAP_1282014_QPF.jpg LOL, just a little 100+ mile shift between 14z and 15z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I'm moving east for my one inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Of course the RAP does its thing besr. Winterwxluvr says this will happen based on the big change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I'd have a hard time going more than 1" IMBY that's for sure. Probably less. I think that's pretty generous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I think that's pretty generous. Yeah it might be. Probably a better chance for flurries.. but when it comes to such small liquid who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Snowing here. Very small flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Snowing here. Very small flakes. Awesome! what's your temp and dp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I like 0.5" - 1" as of now...We should do 15:1, so 0.03 gets us 1/2"...looks like at least we'll get an hour or 2 of light snow I think that's reasonable... though I dunno if I'd bet on it. This is a wait to see radar later type of situation around here probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Awesome! what's your temp and dp? I'm currently 17/1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 This isnt't consistent with what it is showing What do you mean by that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I like 0.5" - 1" as of now...We should do 15:1, so 0.03 gets us 1/2"...looks like at least we'll get an hour or 2 of light snow 15-1 looks reasonable. You're right, 0.03 would get you over 0.50 inch. I think the woebegone sref mean is around .03 or 0.4 if you throw out the two highest members so you could be right. I hope so cause i have a fear our next winter weather event will be more of a icing threat than a snow one but there still is lots to work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 GEFS mean is a tad wetter than OP..gets 0.1" near Wes...probably a tad less than that for DCA What do you think down this way in Spotsylvania and Fredericksburg? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 15Z RAP... 15Z_RAP_1282014_QPF.jpg Damn it. Unrap'd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 GEFS mean is a tad wetter than OP..gets 0.1" near Wes...probably a tad less than that for DCA I'd really discourage you from using the GEFS in a situation like this. The low resolution smears out precip, especially on the edge of a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 What do you think down this way in Spotsylvania and Fredericksburg? Consider the tone of all the comments here with most of us being north of you. I think Fredericksburg is looking good right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Mount Holly's take on the situation- ...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THOUGH THIS WINTER, THE TIMING OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY CAN CHANGE THINGS AND THIS APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER EXAMPLE.THE MAIN SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHAPPEARS TO BE SLOWING SOME MORE, WHICH LEADS TO THE TROUGH AXISORIENTATION CHANGING SOME. THIS THEREFORE AFFECTS THE DOWNSTREAMFLOW SUCH THAT ASSOCIATED LIFT ESPECIALLY IN THE 700-800 MB LAYERSHIFTS FARTHER NORTHWEST. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS HAVE SHIFTED MOREINLAND WITH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION, WHICH IF CORRECT WOULD BRINGSOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE INTERSTATE95 CORRIDOR. THE NAM MAY BE TO WET ON ITS NORTHWEST EDGE, HOWEVER ANEXAMINATION OF ITS MASS FIELDS SHOWS STRONG 700-800 MB FRONTOGENETICFORCING MOVING ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY TONIGHT.THIS COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WOULD RESULT IN HEAVIER SNOWFOR THE SOUTHEASTERN AREAS. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND IS NOT QUITETHERE YET. GIVEN THE SIGNALS OF AT LEAST SOME SNOW GETTING FARTHERINLAND TONIGHT, THE POPS WILL BE INCREASED. IT DOES APPEAR THEREWILL BE A SHARP WESTERN EDGE FROM SNOW TO NO SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 That map makes no sense...Westminster gets nothing on it. Seriously, if I get anything that requires more than sweeping I will be shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Maybe that brief sunshine will help. I seem to have dropped a degree since the cloud cover came in in the last half hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Nice band setting up along the mountains down here. Coming down pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Seriously, if I get anything that requires more than sweeping I will be shocked. If you somehow get less than 6", I'll be shocked... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 WBAL just went trace-2" for metro areas. Used the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 i know...but I am using any model that helps me Works for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I do like the overall shifting of the trajectory of the precip field from WSW/ENE to a SW/NE trajectory that is what we need to see some snow forget the fact that Intellicast is a weenie radar for showing snow hitting the ground, it does show what I'm talking about http://beta.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?enlarge=true&animate=true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I do like the overall shifting of the trajectory of the precip field from WSW/ENE to a SW/NE trajectory that is what we need to see some snow forget the fact that Intellicast is a weenie radar for showing snow hitting the ground, it does show what I'm talking about http://beta.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?enlarge=true&animate=true Nice band on nexrad down by ROA. How much were they supposed to get anyways? Could be a clue. Or a wishcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The WNW flow north of Cuba that is currently visible on the atlantic satellite that I have been talking about for two days will push the storm NW enough for central MD to get 3-4 inches. You heard it here first :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I do like the overall shifting of the trajectory of the precip field from WSW/ENE to a SW/NE trajectory that is what we need to see some snow forget the fact that Intellicast is a weenie radar for showing snow hitting the ground, it does show what I'm talking about http://beta.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?enlarge=true&animate=true Just think if that stripe into Tennessee makes a beeline into D.C. later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow General Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Nice band on nexrad down by ROA. How much were they supposed to get anyways? Could be a clue. Or a wishcast. Local traffic cams show it is snowing there, picking up closer to Wytheville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Nice band on nexrad down by ROA. How much were they supposed to get anyways? Could be a clue. Or a wishcast. Growing up, back in the days of NOAA weather radio and no internet, my rule of thumb was always that DC follows ROA when it comes to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 GFS 0.05" 15z RAP - 0.05" 12 Canadian - around 0.12" 16Z RAP looks even drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Nice band on nexrad down by ROA. How much were they supposed to get anyways? Could be a clue. Or a wishcast. Really coming down right now. Was expecting only a dusting or flurries. Roads and sidewalks starting to get coated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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