snowfan Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Where are you guys finding the RAP so fast? Twister is out to 2 and NCEP is out to 4 instantweathermaps.com its out 13 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 You know you lol'ed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 instantweathermaps.com its out 13 now. Not much at DCA, complete shutout at IAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 RAPpin' back to reality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Nam RAP combo. Toss the reliable models, who needs them? With all the CRAS and end of run RAP hugging these days we've hit new highs this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I'd have a hard time going more than 1" IMBY that's for sure. Probably less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I'd have a hard time going more than 1" IMBY that's for sure. Probably less. Agree... I would like more... but I think up to one inch is way to go for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Nobody puts Jonathan Ducreux in the basement Banter thread.................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 15Z RAP... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 15Z RAP... 15Z_RAP_1282014_QPF.jpg LOL, just a little 100+ mile shift between 14z and 15z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I'm moving east for my one inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Of course the RAP does its thing besr. Winterwxluvr says this will happen based on the big change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I'd have a hard time going more than 1" IMBY that's for sure. Probably less. I think that's pretty generous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I think that's pretty generous. Yeah it might be. Probably a better chance for flurries.. but when it comes to such small liquid who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Snowing here. Very small flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 15Z RAP... 15Z_RAP_1282014_QPF.jpg This isnt't consistent with what it is showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Yeah it might be. Probably a better chance for flurries.. but when it comes to such small liquid who knows. I like 0.5" - 1" as of now...We should do 15:1, so 0.03 gets us 1/2"...looks like at least we'll get an hour or 2 of light snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Snowing here. Very small flakes. Awesome! what's your temp and dp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I like 0.5" - 1" as of now...We should do 15:1, so 0.03 gets us 1/2"...looks like at least we'll get an hour or 2 of light snow I think that's reasonable... though I dunno if I'd bet on it. This is a wait to see radar later type of situation around here probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Awesome! what's your temp and dp? I'm currently 17/1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 This isnt't consistent with what it is showing What do you mean by that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I like 0.5" - 1" as of now...We should do 15:1, so 0.03 gets us 1/2"...looks like at least we'll get an hour or 2 of light snow 15-1 looks reasonable. You're right, 0.03 would get you over 0.50 inch. I think the woebegone sref mean is around .03 or 0.4 if you throw out the two highest members so you could be right. I hope so cause i have a fear our next winter weather event will be more of a icing threat than a snow one but there still is lots to work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 GEFS mean is a tad wetter than OP..gets 0.1" near Wes...probably a tad less than that for DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 GEFS mean is a tad wetter than OP..gets 0.1" near Wes...probably a tad less than that for DCA What do you think down this way in Spotsylvania and Fredericksburg? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 15Z RAP... 15Z_RAP_1282014_QPF.jpg Damn it. Unrap'd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 GEFS mean is a tad wetter than OP..gets 0.1" near Wes...probably a tad less than that for DCA I'd really discourage you from using the GEFS in a situation like this. The low resolution smears out precip, especially on the edge of a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I'd really discourage you from using the GEFS in a situation like this. The low resolution smears out precip, especially on the edge of a storm. i know...but I am using any model that helps me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 What do you think down this way in Spotsylvania and Fredericksburg? I don't have any peripheral vision...I can't even see all the way to the beltway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 What do you think down this way in Spotsylvania and Fredericksburg? Consider the tone of all the comments here with most of us being north of you. I think Fredericksburg is looking good right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Mount Holly's take on the situation- ...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THOUGH THIS WINTER, THE TIMING OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY CAN CHANGE THINGS AND THIS APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER EXAMPLE.THE MAIN SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHAPPEARS TO BE SLOWING SOME MORE, WHICH LEADS TO THE TROUGH AXISORIENTATION CHANGING SOME. THIS THEREFORE AFFECTS THE DOWNSTREAMFLOW SUCH THAT ASSOCIATED LIFT ESPECIALLY IN THE 700-800 MB LAYERSHIFTS FARTHER NORTHWEST. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS HAVE SHIFTED MOREINLAND WITH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION, WHICH IF CORRECT WOULD BRINGSOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE INTERSTATE95 CORRIDOR. THE NAM MAY BE TO WET ON ITS NORTHWEST EDGE, HOWEVER ANEXAMINATION OF ITS MASS FIELDS SHOWS STRONG 700-800 MB FRONTOGENETICFORCING MOVING ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY TONIGHT.THIS COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WOULD RESULT IN HEAVIER SNOWFOR THE SOUTHEASTERN AREAS. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND IS NOT QUITETHERE YET. GIVEN THE SIGNALS OF AT LEAST SOME SNOW GETTING FARTHERINLAND TONIGHT, THE POPS WILL BE INCREASED. IT DOES APPEAR THEREWILL BE A SHARP WESTERN EDGE FROM SNOW TO NO SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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