Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I kinda expected the gfs to be light and broad brushed. Hardly a shocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 JB2's call. Dusting-2" or Virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Woah woah... could you explain what you mean by omega dendrite bomb? Whatever it is, I want it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 GFS has a SE bias until the end....we know it will paint 0.03" all the way to Montana because that is what it does...but it will prob be too far southeast... as predicted....around 0.05 - 0.06" for DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
budice2002 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 as predicted....around 0.05 - 0.06" for DCA What about IAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Woah woah... could you explain what you mean by omega dendrite bomb? Well if you sufficiently make dendrites and strongly with omega, the ratios will easily double. Depends on how strong the synoptic lift is and where that convergence zone sets up. GFS naturally makes this less confident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 What about IADEither same or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I'm happy if I see a flake or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Simple, toss the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 as predicted....around 0.05 - 0.06" for DCA 0.1" all the way into PG county now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 What about IAD Virga deformation band within a few miles to the SE of the airport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Are you all seriously complaining about this? This outcome wasn't even close yesterday. I'll gladly take light qpf with high ratios. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=024ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_024_precip_p24.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 What time are the SREF's again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 14z RAP is like 0.25 at DCA I think so at least... maybe its 0.20? The QPF lines are so tightly clustered around I-95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 What time are the SREF's again? 09z are already out... 15z is just after 2pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 14z RAP is like 0.25 at DCA It looks like a nice back end pivot to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 14z RAP is like 0.25 at DCA I think so at least... maybe its 0.20? The QPF lines are so tightly clustered around I-95 With omega ratios jack that up to 5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 With omega ratios jack that up to 5 inches. No... at best would be 3" with 0.2 QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 With omega ratios jack that up to 5 inches. No, not really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Team Tracker. And you laughed. All the bandwagoners are welcome aboard. I'm putting them in steerage though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 So far for DCA: 12z NAM -- ~0.18 12z Hi-Res NAM -- ~0.15 12z RGEM -- ~0.12 12z GFS -- ~0.06 14z RAP -- ~0.20 Would seem pretty good agreement for an inch or just under... perhaps more if we catch a lucky break Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 09z are already out... 15z is just after 2pm Cool. Thank you sir. Interesting day unfolding. Expected Ian's 3-5 flakes, so I'm happy to ride this trend today. I'm already looking forward to the happy hour run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Nam RAP combo. Toss the reliable models, who needs them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Woah woah... could you explain what you mean by omega dendrite bomb? #ODBstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Team Tracker. And you laughed. All the bandwagoners are welcome aboard. I'm putting them in steerage though. May I at least have a cup of porridge sir? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 #ODBstorm http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h2zgB93KANE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 All the bandwagoners are welcome aboard. I'm putting them in steerage though. Nobody puts Jonathan Ducreux in the basement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 RAP running....looks good, but just out to 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 RAP running....looks good, but just out to 9. Where are you guys finding the RAP so fast? Twister is out to 2 and NCEP is out to 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Nobody puts Jonathan Ducreux in the basement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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