wxmeddler Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Well I'll be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 My point and click shows 60% chance of snow tonight with up to 1 inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 14z RAP def moved a little west with the western edge. It's almost as if the RAP model also has late hours of chaos uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 It's probably because of the type of pattern needed to get a slider. Jan is often suppression awareness month here. Some of the same biases and such are probably still present but we definitely are SNE way less than SNE. IAN - Suppression awareness month (SAM) LOL!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 12z RGEM meteogram for DCA -- http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Washington&mod=gemreg&run=12&var=prcp〈=en&map=us Looks like 3mm of snow, or .12 QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 lol...Rap'ed Looks like the "heavier" snow comes in around 8 along I-95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 So far for DCA: 12z NAM -- ~0.18 12z Hi-Res NAM -- ~0.15 12z RGEM -- ~0.12 That seem right so far zwyts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 So the 700-500 deform /convergence from dc to snj is interesting. Anyone plot Bufkit and look at omega in snow growth zone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I wish I had hourlies but here's 10pm and 1am respectively on the nam. DC looks good for some mod snow. Best lift doesn't push to my yard...well, at least not until 18z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 So the 700-500 deform /convergence from dc to snj is interesting. Anyone plot Bufkit and look at omega in snow growth zone? Talk dirty to me, nightcalls with HM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 What are the temps like during Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 So the 700-500 deform /convergence from dc to snj is interesting. Anyone plot Bufkit and look at omega in snow growth zone? BWI 6z - Sorry cut off the top there a bit that's -10 at 600mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Yes, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I want dca to get 2-4 inches. Anything to help the cwg winter forecast to fail miserably +1. After that school closing article I'm 100% rooting for their failure. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welbane Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 What are the temps like during 50s yesterday will limit accum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Can't wait to be GooFuS'd and EURO'd... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 A 600mb omega dendrite bomb? If gfs looks similar, I'd double qpf for totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Updated AFD from LWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC1015 AM EST TUE JAN 28 2014.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGIONTODAY...ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH. BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONSWILL CONTINUE FOR TODAY WITH MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE SINGLEDIGITS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE TEENS ELSEWHERE.A POTENT SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAYWILL CAUSE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEASTCOAST. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THESHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THIS TIME. LATESTGUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITHPRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED FROM THE SHORTWAVE. A PERIOD OFACCUMULATING SNOW IS MORE LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTOTHE WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS. HIGHERACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN MARYLAND WHERE A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH WITH THISSYSTEM AND THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND NORTH AND WEST WITH THEHIGHER QPF TOTALS. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR UPDATESREGARDING THE STORM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 GFS not having it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 A 600mb omega dendrite bomb? If gfs looks similar, I'd double qpf for totals. Woah woah... could you explain what you mean by omega dendrite bomb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 50s yesterday will limit accum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 GFS coming with a significant expansion to our NW of the precip but doesn't get us the heavier stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I kinda expected the gfs to be light and broad brushed. Hardly a shocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 JB2's call. Dusting-2" or Virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Woah woah... could you explain what you mean by omega dendrite bomb? Whatever it is, I want it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
budice2002 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 as predicted....around 0.05 - 0.06" for DCA What about IAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Woah woah... could you explain what you mean by omega dendrite bomb? Well if you sufficiently make dendrites and strongly with omega, the ratios will easily double. Depends on how strong the synoptic lift is and where that convergence zone sets up. GFS naturally makes this less confident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 What about IADEither same or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I'm happy if I see a flake or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Simple, toss the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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