feloniousq Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 lulz...and I had a productive workday on tap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 If the GFS confirms... how long until WWA are posted? GFS has a SE bias until the end....we know it will paint 0.03" all the way to Montana because that is what it does...but it will prob be too far southeast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 lulz...and I had a productive workday on tapRight? You read my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 yeah somehow it will still set up over katie and leesburg. Hahahahahahahaahaha. This is a DC special, remember Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I agree, just not too sure its for real. Best case in your opinion? I'd say 2" at dca. I don't think we know what the best case is tbh. Touch and go for now. Best case could still be a dusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 NAM is 2" for me and you....HI - RES shows a period of mod - heavy snow between 10pm - 1am Tried to look at the hi res NMA on wxBell but it isn't in yet. Looks to me from the regular NAM that DCA gets around .15 or so and I get .20 but the weather bell color scheme isn't very friendly to old eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 1/30/10? That one sure came north very late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 yeah somehow it will still set up over katie and leesburg. I see it with my sister now living well NW of philly...I think models had her in the 0.25" contour for 1/21 until close to gametime and she got 12-13" I think...we're just spooked...being on the NW edge with a trending storm is awesome.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I don't think we know what the best case is tbh. Touch and go for now. Best case could still be a dusting I would say go with a dusting... I am just not fully buying this 12z NAM yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Tried to look at the hi res NMA on wxBell but it isn't in yet. Looks to me from the regular NAM that DCA gets around .15 or so and I get .20 but the weather bell color scheme isn't very friendly to old eyes. Do you buy it Wes given the overall synoptics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I like the banding on the N/W side more so than the whole system drastically coming our way. Matt's right, the periphery often gets banded nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Tried to look at the hi res NMA on wxBell but it isn't in yet. Looks to me from the regular NAM that DCA gets around .15 or so and I get .20 but the weather bell color scheme isn't very friendly to old eyes. DCA http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kdca.txt IAD http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kiad.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Tried to look at the hi res NMA on wxBell but it isn't in yet. Looks to me from the regular NAM that DCA gets around .15 or so and I get .20 but the weather bell color scheme isn't very friendly to old eyes. 0.18" for DCA...0.25" contour 5-10 mi south of your house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 First thing to watch for to see if the NAM is believable will be whether that area of heavier precip really develops in western NC since that is what eventually gets aimed at us. Looks like its starting to develop to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I see it with my sister now living well NW of philly...I think models had her in the 0.25" contour for 1/21 until close to gametime and she got 12-13" I think...we're just spooked...being on the NW edge with a trending storm is awesome.. It can be awesome. I think there's a reason we don't get north trends as much as places north. I have kept it in mind throughout though.. I said we were SNE on this one a few days ago. That said I have very little confidence in the edge. It could just not happen as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 1/30/10? That one sure came north very late. yep...and 1/26/04 Ask Boston how much they were expecting from 12/5/03 or PD2 or 1/96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 It can be awesome. I think there's a reason we don't get north trends as much as places north. I have kept it in mind throughout though.. I said we were SNE on this one a few days ago. That said I have very little confidence in the edge. It could just not happen as well. hopefully we are in the 0.25" contour by this afternoon...that would give us a nice 2-4" event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 hopefully we are in the 0.25" contour by this afternoon...that would give us a nice 2-4" event .25 would be at least 4 inches. Its not like its 38 degrees like it was when 1/21 started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Hi-Res NAM looks good on radar at 15 -- looks like a band just SE of DCA? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=015ℑ=data%2Fnam-hires%2F12%2Fnam-hires_namer_015_sim_reflectivity.gif&model=nam-hires&area=namer¶m=sim_reflectivity&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 .25 would be at least 4 inches. Its not like its 38 degrees like it was when 1/21 started move east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 move east eh...enjoy this one. I will wait for next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosi76 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Hi-Res NAM looks good on radar at 15 -- looks like a band just SE of DCA? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=015%E2'> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 It can be awesome. I think there's a reason we don't get north trends as much as places north. I have kept it in mind throughout though.. I said we were SNE on this one a few days ago. That said I have very little confidence in the edge. It could just not happen as well. Sorry, I'm on Matt's team. Fully expecting to shovel my driveway tomorrow AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Looks like its starting to develop to me. I can't find a reporting station anywhere in Alabama reporting precip. That radar seems better than reality evidently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 This is def the Stormtracker storm. He never lost faith. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 eh...enjoy this one. I will wait for next week for a 31 degree mix?...cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Hi-Res NAM looks good on radar at 15 -- looks like a band just SE of DCA? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=015ℑ=data%2Fnam-hires%2F12%2Fnam-hires_namer_015_sim_reflectivity.gif&model=nam-hires&area=namer¶m=sim_reflectivity&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize= That's the most impressive image I've seen yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 That's the most impressive image I've seen yet. Certainly is... I would gather that Hi-Res NAM would support .15 or so at DCA looking at the 850 temp and MSLP maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigjohndc Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I can't find a reporting station anywhere in Alabama reporting precip. That radar seems better than reality evidently. Alex City 08:35 AM Unknown Precip 30ºF 5ºF 34% N 13 30.21 in 6:42 AM/5:11 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 for a 31 degree mix?...cool 31 degree mix > .18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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