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January 28/29th Storm Model Disco and Obs


NorthArlington101

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  On 1/28/2014 at 2:17 PM, midatlanticweather said:

 I hope it is not done trending/correcting! 

 

why would it be?..Being on the NW fringe is awesome....New England gets 200% QPF bumps at the last minute on the regular...this is what models do....Hopefully we will all be 0.5" by 18z

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Think best case is 1" BWI to Matt. For some reason I'm just not buying it this time. I do think obs about temps being warmer than initially predicted despite the low 850's means the heights are higher and a more northerly flow will indeed be in place, however to have this come even more nw is unlikely. Hope I'm wrong.

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  On 1/28/2014 at 2:18 PM, Bob Chill said:

I hope the nam is wrong. I want 3" or bust. 

 

you're good....We are so used to being too far south we forget that places like ORH expect 1-2" and get 10" on the regular...same with north jersey...

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  On 1/28/2014 at 2:23 PM, UVVmet84 said:

So the NAM isn't i lala in your opinion? I mean I think its reasonable, but if DC gets 2-3+ I'd be tickled to death and surprised.

 

no

 

this is Standard operating procedure for the entire northeast....we just arent used to it....

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  On 1/28/2014 at 2:25 PM, peribonca said:

If the GFS confirms... how long until WWA are posted?

 

GFS has a SE bias until the end....we know it will paint 0.03" all the way to Montana because that is what it does...but it will prob be too far southeast...

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