BTRWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 On 1/28/2014 at 3:20 AM, mitchnick said: hey, wtf? I've made a couple posts on that beginning around 5:15 this evening that crook! That sucks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 On 1/28/2014 at 3:21 AM, NorthArlington101 said: Better virga then nothing IMHO. Still betting on an inch. Sent from my iPod touch Virga is nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 On 1/28/2014 at 3:22 AM, nj2va said: Better virga then nothing IMHO. Still betting on an inch. Virga is nothing. I am aware. The feeling of snow on radar is better then none. Sent from my iPod touch using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Right now the storm entity has almost 750 miles to traverse. 50 miles will apparently make All the difference. It's impossible for any model or forecaster to hone it down to that degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 On 1/28/2014 at 3:20 AM, mitchnick said: hey, wtf? I've made a couple posts on that beginning around 5:15 this evening that crook! I wouldn't want to take credit for what he is pointing at as it's at around 400mb and is over us now. He should be looking at what is happening on the water vapor upstream from us. That and what is happening in Canada will decide how far north the precip gets. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 On 1/28/2014 at 3:21 AM, usedtobe said: Rgem gives me 0.09". I'd be happy with it. More often then not, I don't do well when I'm near the northern edge. Northern edge? Hagerstown will be the northern edge by this time tomorrow. Nowcasting is going to blow the roof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 For those wanting to see the 0z RGEM totals: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 On 1/28/2014 at 3:05 AM, Ian said: no offense to those who tried but this thread sucks. Thanks, Tenman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 On 1/28/2014 at 3:07 AM, usedtobe said: The storm for us sort of sucks so it's not surprising. For folks on the northern neck it looks decent but we don't have a lot of northern neck people posting. True. I just hope for a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 On 1/28/2014 at 3:28 AM, nj2va said: For those wanting to see the 0z RGEM totals: Look at that north and west extent! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 On 1/28/2014 at 3:26 AM, usedtobe said: I wouldn't want to take credit for what he is pointing at as it's at around 400mb and is over us now. He should be looking at what is happening on the water vapor upstream from us. That and what is happening in Canada will decide how far north the precip gets. . Mitch...Wes is telling you that your water vapor analysis sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 All aboard folks. Ian is bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 This is gonna trend so far NW it turns into an apps runner. Bank on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 GFS appears to be coming in a bit NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 On 1/28/2014 at 3:31 AM, mattie g said: Mitch...Wes is telling you that your water vapor analysis sucks. I didn't analyze anything....all I did was point out that there was a stream of clouds coming over us from the SW and there was a stripe of precip persistent over the I81 corridor and was questioning it Berk turned it into whatever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 GFS def west...not sure how much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 On 1/28/2014 at 3:31 AM, mattie g said: Mitch...Wes is telling you that your water vapor analysis sucks. No, I never heard Mitch's comments but if they are the same as on the JB2 tweet, then it is not so good. the precip still could come north but the water vapor feature that JB2 was looking at won't tell you much concerning it. Now if the feature starts shifting north, then maybe it would mean something but right now the the vort location and strength is what we're concerned with along with how quickly the northern stream feature swings east. We'd like the latter feature to be slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 On 1/28/2014 at 3:32 AM, Clueless said: All aboard folks. Ian is bullish. Got my broom ready. I think this is how you trick superbands to stay over you for a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 On 1/28/2014 at 3:34 AM, snowfan said: GFS appears to be coming in a bit NW. seems like the best we can do is to get an area of light qpf over us with the heavy stuff staying S&E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 ncep has been slow all day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Sure seems that way. Would be a good hit for the lower eastern shore. We'd need a solid 50-100 NW shift to get into anything really good. On 1/28/2014 at 3:37 AM, mitchnick said: seems like the best we can do is to get an area of light qpf over us with the heavy stuff staying S&E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 around 0.05" or so for DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The 0Z runs have been brutal. A really nice storm just a few hours to the south and east of the region. SMH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 On 1/28/2014 at 3:39 AM, snowfan said: Sure seems that way. Would be a good hit for the lower eastern shore. We'd need a solid 50-100 NW shift to get into anything really good. I've just about run out of weenie excuses to hold onto hope for any last minutes changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 On 1/28/2014 at 3:26 AM, Tenman Johnson said: Right now the storm entity has almost 750 miles to traverse. 50 miles will apparently make All the difference. It's impossible for any model or forecaster to hone it down to that degree. Not really and it's much more than 50 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I'd like to think positively but the edge can be a pain. If we stay there, rather than it trending better we're more likely to just get nothing probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Impressed it got this far on a model. Préparez votre mouchoirs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 It'll shift just enough NW tomorrow to put Calvert and St Mary's counties under advisory snow. Who am I kidding....time for bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The potential ice storm along the SE Coast will be worth watching. Could be a big deal down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 This thing has trended NW slowly but surely. My guess in looking at the current setup is the NW trend continues for 1-2 more model runs but probably won't come much more NW than 50-75 miles. If cold air suppresses less than expected and energy timing on the NS is a tick slower-- I think DC gets at least an inch. Just a guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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