Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Wasn't GHD showing up SE of here in model land at this timeframe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Winter loving Geos is back! Happy to see that. First call...18" for the mountain top? He always loves snow, just hates the bitter cold like many of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Wasn't GHD showing up SE of here in model land at this timeframe? Yep. But not as far SE as this one is now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 That was an entirely different situation. I am not sure if the ejection will be far enough South for my area. But I am pretty sure the strength and track won't be anything like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 If I were a betting man: 50% chance of a stronger more nw solution 30% chance it becomes weaker and sheared 20% chance of a strong, more se solution (it has happened but very rare) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 If I were a betting man: 70% chance of a stronger more nw solution 30% chance it becomes weaker and sheared 0% chance of a strong, more se solution (it has happened but very rare) FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I've never seen Dee favor a southeast solution, especially when modeling doesn't support it. I wonder if it's a software issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 So now the Tennesee Valley needs to have their shovels ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 So now the Tennesee Valley needs to have their shovels ready. exactly, taking into account the 'Dee Correction', congrats Nashville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I've never seen Dee favor a southeast solution, especially when modeling doesn't support it. I wonder if it's a software issue. Usually he always shows a WI/IL in the jackpot zone.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 In a few days I'm going to regret saying this but....I feel good about this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 It's not hitting the UP so why would he even care!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 FYP c'mon dude there's at least precedent for a few percentage points: March'08 and December'04 sadly I can recall the only two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 comparison.pngThat's not a bad match honestly. I'm pretty worried this tracks too far NW for all but western OH but the southern shortwave ejects pretty far south and the northern shortwave is a bit farther east, so I guess there is still some hope from those who would benefit from a farther southeast solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 December 04 had to be one of NCEP's greatest finds ever. The ECMWF and GGEM were far to weak, the GFS had it and never lost it. Never happened since. I distinctly remember the GFS tracking the slp to Lansing on D4. Corrected a good couple hundred miles to the SE, back in the day when corrections to the SE didn't happen very often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Anyone have as a reference the blizzard from the first week of Feb, in 2011 or 2012 I think it was that hit Chicago? I'm curious as to how the paths differ and what the setup was like then..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Yep. But not as far SE as this one is now. Except for the GFS which was suppressing the heck out of it in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I distinctly remember the GFS tracking the slp to Lansing on D4. Corrected a good couple hundred miles to the SE, back in the day when corrections to the SE didn't happen very often. '04 was a 'surprise' up to the last minute for us here in central OH. The one thing I like about the euro's depiction of next week, is you can really see it building in the highs ahead of the system from the north. Just like Dec'04 we had fresh arctic air bullying in from the nw. Even if the track sucks, we could end up with a lot wintry precp in a lot of places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 GHD really is the new Jan '99...every potential major will be compared to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 It appears to me Dee's solution is riding on more of a west to east type setup rather than a standard SW dig riding NW like what we are normally use to seeing. I'm not saying this will be the case, but these are the types of setups that can lead to multiple rounds of thundersnows from the southern storms overriding the cold air in place. Just something to watch.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 A little OT, but I felt the urge to share this. This has .000001% chance of verifying, but this is a classic case of snow porn... ...and I'm off to change my pants Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 rumor has it the euro ens is well south of the OP...more of an overrunning event. Ensembles aren't out that far on the site I use. The ggem ens matches the OP pretty well though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 rumor has it the euro ens is well south of the OP...more of an overrunning event. Ensembles aren't out that far on the site I use. The ggem ens matches the OP pretty well though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 rumor has it the euro ens is well south of the OP...more of an overrunning event. Ensembles aren't out that far on the site I use. The ggem ens matches the OP pretty well though. Well that is some good news. I know that's what the pattern looked like last week for next week, west to east flow with some over running which would be good for us here. Wasn't the GGEM a little further southeast of the Euro anyway? I know it was warmer, but the track looked good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 December 04 had to be one of NCEP's greatest finds ever. The ECMWF and GGEM were far to weak, the GFS had it and never lost it. Never happened since. While not nearly as strong, there was February 4th-6th, 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 euro OP must be a loner after seeing the rest of the ens run. Cold air and HP win the battle and mean track is from western gulf off Delmarva. Solution would probably be a solid hit for the Ohio river valley, southern IN, southern OH. lol the euro will probably go like this: flat tonight, bomb tomorrow at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Well that is some good news. I know that's what the pattern looked like last week for next week, west to east flow with some over running which would be good for us here. Wasn't the GGEM a little further southeast of the Euro anyway? I know it was warmer, but the track looked good. the ggem was a bit further southeast with the track than the euro, but still would be a mess here...as expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 euro OP must be a loner after seeing the rest of the ens run. Cold air and HP win the battle and mean track is from western gulf off Delmarva. Solution would probably be a solid hit for the Ohio river valley, southern IN, southern OH. lol the euro will probably go like this: flat tonight, bomb tomorrow at 12z. Perfect. I'll take it! would rather wish for a slight jog/adjustment northwest than that dreaded SE wish! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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