AppsRunner Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Southwest corner of PA at 192 hours, on the 12z Euro. Though, again...it looks to have a few different lp centers. It's not fully consolidated in the frames before that and there's still a large stripe of .5-.75" of 6hr. QPF running from IL into Western OH. If there's a better LP with this open gulf there's going to be some ridiculous precip totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 Southwest corner of PA at 192 hours, on the 12z Euro. Though, again...it looks to have a few different lp centers. It's one main SLP until it hits the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 It's not fully consolidated in the frames before that and there's still a large stripe of .5-.75" of 6hr. QPF running from IL into Western OH. If there's a better LP with this open gulf there's going to be some ridiculous precip totals. That's a pretty good 6 hour total though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Those on the NW fringe of this would still get good snows, thermodynamic profile would suggest better than 10:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Like where I'm sitting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 You can tell this is going to be a "big dog" where ever it goes. When the models got this kind of look long range, you know something big is coming. May outclass the early January storm no matter the geographical location. I agree about potential. The model consensus on showing something big is pretty impressive given that's it's a week plus away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 euro really presses in the high pressure ahead of the big dog, as a result all of ohio except for the extreme south eastern edge remains mostly in the 20's thru the whole event. absolute mess here in central ohio....probably smelling snow during an icestorm. Love to see those highs keep modeling stronger....or weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 That's a pretty good 6 hour total though. Just took a look at WxBell totals... there's a bullseye of 18" near Dayton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Fairly impressive set up on the 12z Euro. Look how it splits the PV, and a piece comes south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 hour 216 back well below zero again.... unrelenting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Just took a look at WxBell totals... there's a bullseye of 18" near Dayton. yep central IN, western OH clocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Fairly impressive set up on the 12z Euro. Look how it splits the PV, and a piece comes south. 1:28 12z Euro 168.gif 1:28 12z Euro 192.gif when I saw the trough going neg tilt over central TX at 168 I thought this puppy was cutting up thru Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Like where I'm sitting I don't it's way too cold out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Just took a look at WxBell totals... there's a bullseye of 18" near Dayton. I think a bullseye around here is well deserved after all of the below zero temps and 1-3 inch snows. We deserve a bigdaddy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Like where I'm sitting we're pretty good...would prefer to be 50 miles north but i won't complain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I'll take a hit of the Euro. 1.2" of qpf here, probably reasonable ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I think a bullseye around here is well deserved after all of the below zero temps and 1-3 inch snows. We deserve a bigdaddy! the southeastern heavy snow gradient is Columbus...imagine that. I'm starting to think it's default mechanism in the modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 This has NW trend written on it I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 This has NW trend written on it I think. If a sloppy piecemeal ejection of the southwest vort can be avoided, I think it's pretty much a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 This has NW trend written on it I think. I agree, although there is fresh arctic HP building in front of it from the north and northwest so there may be many outside the ideal track that see some kind of mess....someone gets an icestorm out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Winter loving Geos is back! Happy to see that. First call...18" for the mountain top? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 we're pretty good...would prefer to be 50 miles north but i won't complain Sure you would, Alek. Don't worry, Chicago and south is locked into a good shot at this storm, especially if the weekend storm is strong enough (though that's currently showing a weakening trend on the models). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Winter loving Geos is back! Happy to see that. First call...18" for the mountain top? If it can track like the GFS and not come out in pieces like Alek said, I should be good for at least a foot! Like to see ratios between 10-13:1. Powder is boring now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 if the weekend storm is strong enough (though that's currently showing a weakening trend on the models). lol. GFS/GGEM and other guidance disagrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 If it can track like the GFS and not come out in pieces like Alek said, I should be good for at least a foot! Like to see ratios between 10-13:1. Powder is boring now. 12"+ of cement. And Alek's third 12"+ storm of the winter. Crazy!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Feb 3-4 can take a rest, but Feb 5 looks very much like a widespread 10-15" snowstorm for this forum. And that includes Toronto. A storm in 1863 dropped 18" around the same dates (Feb 5-6) in T.O., so if U.S. members can find any weather records from that winter, might be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Sure you would, Alek. Don't worry, Chicago and south is locked into a good shot at this storm, especially if the weekend storm is strong enough (though that's currently showing a weakening trend on the models). I'm not exactly waivering (see page 1)...we've all read this book before. SW ejecting into an explosive plains baroclinic zone with a wide open gulf (look at those massive southerly waa vectors) and southeast ridge = amped. Not saying i'll get rain or anything, i'm just saying I favor stronger/nw solutions at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 the southeastern heavy snow gradient is Columbus...imagine that. I'm starting to think it's default mechanism in the modeling. Lock it in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Feb 3-4 can take a rest, but Feb 5 looks very much like a widespread 10-15" snowstorm for this forum. And that includes Toronto. A storm in 1863 dropped 18" around the same dates (Feb 5-6) in T.O., so if U.S. members can find any weather records from that winter, might be interesting. here ya go: Another good snow, though not nearly so great as that in January, hit Cincinnati and other sections of Ohio on February 5, 1863. Totals at various Cincinnati locations ranged from 8.3 inches to 14 inches with one person there reporting 9.5 inches of snow from 4:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m. that day while temperatures hovered between 30 and 34 degrees all day. Urbana in ChampaignCounty got 8.25 inches from February 5-6. College Hill in Cincinnati reported 5 inches more snow on February 22. Cleveland received 18.6 inches of snow for the entire month of February, 1863 and 14 inches more in March of that year. Seasonal snowfall for 1862-1863 came to 80.6 inches at Medina and a whopping 103.5 inches at Millersburg in HolmesCounty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Roger you are very amusing when you speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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