Ajdos Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Euro is south...way south.. lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 And well the euro actually has a March 2008 CMH special redux. same ugly track ( Sorry Buckeye ) and all. Thankfully still way out there.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 It's better we get all of these crappy runs out of the way now than when both systems are within 48 hours of their onset. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Way north on the first one and way south on the second one. My how the mighty Euro has fallen by the wayside this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 If the storm ahead of it pushes the front all the way down into the gulf, like the 00z Euro is doing, then it's game over for the CR to Chicago corridor. We would need the front to hang up in the Ohio/Tennessee valley region as the bigger energy pulls out of the sw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Sorry to hear that. But, hopefully things are going well for you know. Columbus, OH set their all-time snowstorm record with the March 7-8, 2008 storm. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/iln/events/20080308/ This is the H5mb ave. height anomalies for March of 2008. Now granted I'm not very good at producing these maps, you may want to consult Don S on this. But if you look at the ridge that set up just east of Alaska, plus the strong ridge just off of CA and think back to what that may have looked like at the beginning of March 2008 you could see a strong ridge over the gulf of Alaska, with a trough over the Rockies that would have likely popped a weak ridge over the SE US. Does this familiar to what we are seeing in the Feb 2-5th 2014 time frame???? again I'm not sure, i wold like to see Don take a crack at this. I think a big storm will set up somewhere in this subfourm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 And well the euro actually has a March 2008 CMH special redux. same ugly track ( Sorry Buckeye ) and all. Thankfully still way out there.. The Euro sure blows for consistency anymore. And not just for this possible day 7+ storm. The short term changes from it this winter have been weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The chances of a big snow system somewhere from the Southern Plains to Ohio Valley/Great Lakes region is certainly there. Based on everything I have seen I would favor the Southern portion of this sub-forum. I don't think there is anything to be watching per se for areas basically North of I80 as it stands right now. The main question will be where the actual frontal boundary sets up that any potential system would work up along. The overall pattern probably will be quite interesting though right through the medium range. I think a lot of storminess is going to be working across the middle of the country. I think most of us see multiple threats in February, and that is going to cap off a pretty great Winter for areas from Iowa and Missouri and Eastward. I certainly won't say its been a great Winter for the Plains states as they have been relatively warm and way below normal snowfall. At this point for next week its just a matter of watching trends and adjusting the forecast and potential accordingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The Euro sure blows for consistency anymore. And not just for this possible day 7+ storm. The short term changes from it this winter have been weird. I agree the Euro is not king anymore, but nothing has stepped up to replace it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The Euro sure blows for consistency anymore. And not just for this possible day 7+ storm. The short term changes from it this winter have been weird. That so called upgrade they did back in Nov looks to have been a EPIC Fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 This is the H5mb ave. height anomalies for March of 2008. Now granted I'm not very good at producing these maps, you may want to consult Don S on this. But if you look at the ridge that set up just east of Alaska, plus the strong ridge just off of CA and think back to what that may have looked like at the beginning of March 2008 you could see a strong ridge over the gulf of Alaska, with a trough over the Rockies that would have likely popped a weak ridge over the SE US. Does this familiar to what we are seeing in the Feb 2-5th 2014 time frame???? again I'm not sure, i wold like to see Don take a crack at this. I think a big storm will set up somewhere in this subfourm. Here's the March 7, 2008 500H map. West coast ridge moved east. Don't know if that's gonna happen with this one, but who knows. Lots of time to sort things out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 That so called upgrade they did back in Nov looks to have been a EPIC Fail. I miss the NAM back in the day too when it was on its hot streak? and then they updated it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Here's the March 7, 2008 500H map. West coast ridge moved east. Don't know if that's gonna happen with this one, but who knows. Lots of time to sort things out. march 7, 2008 500h.gif probably not a good analogy, but gave it a shot, none the less the next 30-45 days will be fun to watch as a pattern change has to happen with the higher sun angle, eventually this pattern change will produce a good storm somewhere, I hope I'm right with the early FEB storm dropping south like the GEM is showing. The Euro suppresses every thing to far south, I think that is wrong to, it basically washes out the SE ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I miss the NAM back in the day too when it was on its hot streak? and then they updated it? OT but are you in a contest to see how many avatars you can go through in 24 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 looks like toledo received around 6" in the cmh march storm.. This will be a piece of cake for the Wyanotte magnet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 OT but are you in a contest to see how many avatars you can go through in 24 hours? At least MU took Vill to OT... Hopefully Feb doesn't turn in to as frustrating as the MU season.. Guess they were due for one these downs yrs and not overachieve.. LOL at Becky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Just looking, my initial thoughts would be a cutter would be likely, and possibly a strong one. That would be due to a pretty decent amount of energy coming out of the Southwest and the large ridge of Alaska sending what would probably be some decent shortwaves south into the Plains, to go along with a growing SE ridge. BUT, the point brought up about the confluence over much of the NE US due to the lobe of the PV extending west towards Hudson Bay does suggest a southern track isn't off the table. The ensembles show heights rising over eastern Canada and over the SE US in the 7-8 day time-frame...question is do they rise enough to allow a strong cutter to occur, or will the heights rise too slow and cause any storm track more W-E and farther south? I'm leaning a bit farther NW and possibly strong, but the farther south solution would be very interesting here for a possible ice threat. GEFS mean 180 hours: GEFS mean 192 hours...heights trying to rise and confluence trying to shift farther to the east ahead of the possible storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Just looking, my initial thoughts would be a cutter would be likely, and possibly a strong one. That would be due to a pretty decent amount of energy coming out of the Southwest and the large ridge of Alaska sending what would probably be some decent shortwaves south into the Plains, to go along with a growing SE ridge. BUT, the point brought up about the confluence over much of the NE US due to the lobe of the PV extending west towards Hudson Bay does suggest a southern track isn't off the table. The ensembles show heights rising over eastern Canada and over the SE US in the 7-8 day time-frame...question is do they rise enough to allow a strong cutter to occur, or will the heights rise too slow and cause any storm track more W-E and farther south? I'm leaning a bit farther NW and possibly strong, but the farther south solution would be very interesting here for a possible ice threat. GEFS mean 180 hours: GEFS mean 192 hours...heights trying to rise and confluence trying to shift farther to the east ahead of the possible storm. I totally agree with you. I am really surprised by tonight's output. But this is also way out there. And my local area has way more wiggle room with cutting. But given the trough I think it may be way to fast. Which would side more with cutter if it's slower. The remarkable similarity to the event in early January is crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 DGEX consistent... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The remarkable similarity to the event in early January is crazy. This is nothing like "the event in early January." January 4th, 2014 February 3rd, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 DGEX consistent... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 lol, wagons way north on the 12z GFS. All rain for LAF possibly. 0z Euro gonna be a southern outlier...by a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 What a hideous run for LAF. Just hours and hours of cold rain. I think I'd rather have the 0z Euro whiff to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 GFS way north and Euro way South...I highly doubt it ends up that north lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Congrats MDW-DTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Ugh hard to believe...I love the way the GFS looks but there is always something in the back of my mind that is telling me "IT GON RAIN' lol...Epic run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 What a hideous run for LAF. Just hours and hours of cold rain. I think I'd rather have the 0z Euro whiff to the south. It's zr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Lock it in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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