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February 4-5th Winter Storm


Chicago Storm

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Giving the NAM some respect, it did catch the Boxing Day blizzard back out on the east coast in 2011. Every other model had dropped it going out to sea-- the NAM set the trend out 60 hours of bringing the mother up the coast.

This very well may go well nw, but c'mon, going back to 2011 to respect the nam?  Hell I probably could find a coupe from the FIM and CRAS in the past three years lol

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This very well may go well nw, but c'mon, going back to 2011 to respect the nam?  Hell I probably could find a coupe from the FIM and CRAS in the past three years lol

 

 

That's the problem...how is one supposed to know when the 72-84 hour NAM will score a coup?

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I remember an event in early December where the Euro pounded my area for many consecutive runs (don't know if it was 5 days), and then it jumped ship elsewhere. So I wouldn't put faith in that just yet.

 

euro, ggem, uk,  have all placed this somewhere in sw PA around 96 hrs and the gfs is trending in that direction.    Yes, they could all be wrong and the 18z 84 hr nam could be right.   anything is possible in this game....and I'm being serious.    But I've never seen the nam NOT overdo a storm at some point in it's run.  

 

Where the nam usually scores a coupe like this is in the 36 hours leading up to the storm.  When it shoots nw of other guidance at that point, (inside 36 hrs, that's when I worry)

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You caught up in it too, huh? Whatcha thinking now...rain with 1-2" backside?

 

 

lol

 

Too early for specific amounts but a generic several inches looks good at this point.  We may or may not have to fight mixing but one thing I have a hard time believing is plain rain.   

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That's the problem...how is one supposed to know when the 72-84 hour NAM will score a coup?

 

 

it's obvious well before 72 hours that the NAM was going to be better than the Euro or GGEM...the problem i have is that there's really no good reason to think the NAM has a better handle on energy sitting over the ocean than the Euro or GGEM.

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Hopefully MKE  catches on to this rocket science model bias and reads the GB afternoon AFD.

PRECIP-WISE...THE M.O. OF THE PAST COUPLE SYSTEMS HAS BEEN FOR  EACH TO LOOK LIKE A BETTER PCPN PRODUCER THAN IT/S PREDECESSOR  WHEN VIEWED FM A FEW DAYS OUT...ONLY TO END UP WITH A SWD SHIFT IN  THE PCPN ON THE MODEL RUNS LEADING UP TO THE EVENT. DESPITE SOME  EARLY MODEL RUNS INDICATING NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW TDA IN E-C  WI...WE ARE ENDING UP WITH PRETTY MUCH A NUISANCE EVENT. NOW THE  TUE-WED SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE TRACKING A LITTLE FARTHER S AS  WELL...WITH THE SYSTEM NEXT WEEKEND LOOKING LIKE A BETTER PCPN  PRODUCER. HAVE TO WONDER IF LATER EVENTS WILL END UP PRIMARILY  BYPASSING THE AREA TO THE S AS WELL. AS SUCH...USED NOTHING MORE  THAN CHC POPS IN THE LONG-TERM PART OF THE FCST.  
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Heart configuration on this beauty from the past too...

 

EDIT: and no, not saying a repeat of that storm is coming. Just remember the heart shape to it.

 

attachicon.gifvday 2007.gif

 

you're kind of proving my point above.  If the nam scores a coupe, it'll be inside 36 hours.  That  actually shows how the nam/eta sucks beyond that.   Every model fcked that storm up....in fact I think it almost came down to a nowcast situation.   we were suppose to get a foot of snow according to the forecasts the night before....we all know what happened :axe: ...well not for you guys... :snowing:

 

by the way that kind of looks like a broken heart...maybe it was accurate for us

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Hopefully MKE  catches on to this rocket science model bias and reads the GB afternoon AFD.

PRECIP-WISE...THE M.O. OF THE PAST COUPLE SYSTEMS HAS BEEN FOR  EACH TO LOOK LIKE A BETTER PCPN PRODUCER THAN IT/S PREDECESSOR  WHEN VIEWED FM A FEW DAYS OUT...ONLY TO END UP WITH A SWD SHIFT IN  THE PCPN ON THE MODEL RUNS LEADING UP TO THE EVENT. DESPITE SOME  EARLY MODEL RUNS INDICATING NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW TDA IN E-C  WI...WE ARE ENDING UP WITH PRETTY MUCH A NUISANCE EVENT. NOW THE  TUE-WED SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE TRACKING A LITTLE FARTHER S AS  WELL...WITH THE SYSTEM NEXT WEEKEND LOOKING LIKE A BETTER PCPN  PRODUCER. HAVE TO WONDER IF LATER EVENTS WILL END UP PRIMARILY  BYPASSING THE AREA TO THE S AS WELL. AS SUCH...USED NOTHING MORE  THAN CHC POPS IN THE LONG-TERM PART OF THE FCST.  

 

 

i mean that is what has happened but this is pretty light on actual meteorology, not to mention comparing totally different system types/patterns. 

 

but they're the pros and GB is way north

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Light on the meteorology yes, but sometimes KISS and pattern recognition in the models is the way to go instead of saying like MKE is  already with several inches looking likely way to early.  If I had all the several inches look likely and busted early forecast I would have 60+ inches of snow this winter..

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