Hoosier Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Much more organized/developed system on the 12z Euro compared to the 00z run. Track looks fairly similar give or take but strength change is more noticeable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Much more organized/developed system on the 12z Euro compared to the 00z run. Track looks fairly similar give or take but strength change is more noticeable. How bad is it for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 How bad is it for us? buried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 How bad is it for us? QPF is like .9...all snow I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 buried Ah. Just needs to hold then, for another 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Ah. Just needs to hold then, for another 5 days. You were also buried 5 days out before GHD haha Sfc low position actually looks close to the 12z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The euro has a nice look for Iowa as it begins to eject from the southwest, but it just slides eastward too much and doesn't have much of a left turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Ice is going to be the big with this storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Here comes ____, insert name for this storm. Papageorgio? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 LOT slightly tinkered with my grid forecast. Both Tuesday & night were listed as "snow likely." Now, it's... Tuesday: Snow Likely. Tuesday Night: Snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT STORM ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHTAND WEDNESDAY AS THIS LOW PASSES OVER THE AREA. EC AND GFS ARE INGENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TEMPS ALOFT...GFS ISA LITTLE WARMER AND IMPLIES A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERNTIER ON WEDNESDAY...EC IS NOW COLDER WITH ALL SNOW. BOTH MODELSPLACE A STRONG DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREAWITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED ALONG THIS DEFORMATION ZONE...ANDWITH THE SO-CALLED "WRAP AROUND" SNOW PATTERN FOLLOWING THE PASSAGEOF THE SURFACE LOW. HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINSWILL EXTEND EASTWARD AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WILL ADRYING AND EVENTUAL CLEARING TREND TO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY ANDFRIDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Caplan's extended microcast has 20"+ here counting next two systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Hype really starting to spread for this one. People are citing maps from TV showing 20 inches of snow between now and Thursday. My colleague said this storm won't happen because TWC's forecast only had a 30% chance of snow Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 LOT sounds pretty confident in the currently advertised consensus track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Hype really starting to spread for this one. People are citing maps from TV showing 20 inches of snow between now and Thursday. My colleague said this storm won't happen because TWC's forecast only had a 30% chance of snow Tuesday. I learned not to trust TWC for local forecasts with snow long ago either way... too many times expecting 6-10" in the morning as a kid and waking up to fog and 34. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 LOT sounds pretty confident in the currently advertised consensus track. Looks your going to go BACK to BACK jackpots! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The Euro is starting to look like how I envisioned this. Not sure why it hooks East so fast. I suppose it's getting shunted Eastward with the fast flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Looks your going to go BACK to BACK jackpots! Let's make it a threesome with next weekend's forecast system. Then let's turn to spring and svr wx mode! :But seriously, let's keep in mind met Gil Sebenste's thoughts today that the models are too far south and see if his concern verifies with the upcoming storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Captain obvious here...but...Model systematic bias is to be too far southeast with the sfc reflection track with these kind of systems. Usually the tilted low level circulation ends tucked more underneath the pv anomaly when it lifts northeast and takes on a neutral/negative tilt...with said wave being stronger than modeled. So...I would adjust the sfc low track about 50-100 miles farther northwest than the model(s) show. Now how much ridging/confluence/phasing/etc obviously will remain unknowns into the weekend. I'm expecting a wintry mix locally...will be fun to watch regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 thanks for the input. mke also with some reasoning behind their north lean in the latest afd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Captain obvious here...but...Model systematic bias is to be too far southeast with the sfc reflection track with these kind of systems. Usually the tilted low level circulation ends tucked more underneath the pv anomaly when it lifts northeast and takes on a neutral/negative tilt...with said wave being stronger than modeled. So...I would adjust the sfc low track about 50-100 miles farther northwest than the model(s) show. Now how much ridging/confluence/phasing/etc obviously will remain unknowns into the weekend. I'm expecting a wintry mix locally...will be fun to watch regardless. This would also tighten up the mid level circulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Captain obvious here...but...Model systematic bias is to be too far southeast with the sfc reflection track with these kind of systems. Usually the tilted low level circulation ends tucked more underneath the pv anomaly when it lifts northeast and takes on a neutral/negative tilt...with said wave being stronger than modeled. So...I would adjust the sfc low track about 50-100 miles farther northwest than the model(s) show. Now how much ridging/confluence/phasing/etc obviously will remain unknowns into the weekend. I'm expecting a wintry mix locally...will be fun to watch regardless. The one thing I like is this will be plowing into a strong 1030+ COLD high pressure (more like Jan 99 which had LP in MI yet we know the results). NOTE TO ALL: NO. I am not calling for Jan 99. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I learned not to trust TWC for local forecasts with snow long ago either way... too many times expecting 6-10" in the morning as a kid and waking up to fog and 34. +1 Been there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The one thing I like is this will be plowing into a strong 1030+ COLD high pressure (more like Jan 99 which had LP in MI yet we know the results). NOTE TO ALL: NO. I am not calling for Jan 99. very true. Had about 22" of snow with the Jan '99 storm here and the sfc low track just west of me. Unfortunately cold air doesn't look as cold or deep in advance of this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Migr17 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 mke also with some reasoning behind their north lean in the latest afd. They seem excited. They don't even want to talk about tomorrow it seems. GRB also heavily favoring north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 DVN also sniffing out a possible north trend....and slower ejection from the SW short and simple...but I agree with both...if the euro is good for anything this season, it would be the first to sniff the slower ejection IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Reminds me of DVN on the January 5th system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 18z GFS looks like it will be a little SE/weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 DVN also sniffing out a possible north trend....and slower ejection from the SW short and simple...but I agree with both...if the euro is good for anything this season, it would be the first to sniff the slower ejection IMO Was the 12z Euro slower? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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