Stevo6899 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 When yoy say confluence, your talking about stuff in Canada? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I almost feel as if the forecast and models won't tighten up until after tomorrow's-Saturday's storm passes... And the system now going threw the Southern plains on day 3. Which drags the cold air further South and beats down heights to prevent this from amplifying to hard out West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 And the system now going threw the Southern plains on day 3. Which drags the cold air further South and beats down heights to prevent this from amplifying to hard out West. Congrats DC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 When yoy say confluence, your talking about stuff in Canada? yes, that horizontal yellow streak on the 500 chart above that looks like a ceiling over the great lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Congrats DC? Nah. but it could have implications it was a bit stronger on the GFS but nothing like the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Geos do you have GGEM for this storm. QPF/Snowfall? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Well if this fails D9 looks interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Euro looks stronger out West through 72hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 00z Euro has the surface low ejecting from coastal Texas/western GOM. Friv will like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I think we've congratulated every city from STL to WSH on this post at some time or another... lets stop handing out prizes because this thing is still jumping east/west, north/south Wait til this thing samples the first wave this weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I think we've congratulated every city from STL to WSH on this post at some time or another... lets stop handing out prizes because this thing is still jumping east/west, north/south Wait til this thing samples the first wave this weekend... True, agreed.. But congrats! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The Westerlies are just roaring as this ejects into that tremendously long zone of confluence and gets sheared out. There is very little time for any cyclone development. But in return is much colder but can still be relatively wet. This will be a big time winter storm for our sub forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 06z nam is going to look like it's ready to pull out an epic bomb at 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Thiis has so much potential. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The nam is showing the potential. Look at this two powerful vorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 06z gfs is coming in way different than 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 A lot more organized but a ways to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 i'm gonna get buried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 i'm gonna get buried I punted this one already so I just have to sit back and shut up until whatever happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 i'm gonna get buried I think you're gonna be right about the NW trend ultimately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I think you're gonna be right about the NW trend ultimately. We'll see. The emerging hints at late game storm development as the remnant sw hits the trailing front over the southeast has me feeling a little about my call as it would probably prevent 500mb heights in the east from rising like I thought. That said, these types of redevelopments are often overdone and scoot east pretty quick and the NAM already looks to be backing off it's earlier aggressive runs. Also won't be surprised if the sw trends a good bit slower. Such a long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Even worse it will be in Mexico for a while right before it ejects. And as it tracks down the California coast for like 2-3 days. This is going to be terribly modeled. Well it already is. So much waffling. But it showing signs of slowing down a bit. I think this is going to dig more. There is so much energy in the trough. They will get a better grasp on phasing soon. But this has a hook look to it as the trough goes negative and swings NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I think this is going to dig more. There is so much energy in the trough. They will get a better grasp on phasing soon. But this has a hook look to it as the trough goes negative and swings NE. I'd feel even more confident about future NW shifts if we were seeing any kind of guidance suggesting the trough goes negative....we just aren't and it's probably not gonna happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Man I wish they still did data gathering flights in the Pacific like they did back in 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Even worse it will be in Mexico for a while right before it ejects. And as it tracks down the California coast for like 2-3 days. This is going to be terribly modeled. Well it already is. So much waffling. But it showing signs of slowing down a bit. I think this is going to dig more. There is so much energy in the trough. They will get a better grasp on phasing soon. But this has a hook look to it as the trough goes negative and swings NE. Very similar to a system in early December...I think Hoosier would remember this too as he kept bringing up the point about some of the energy going into data void regions of mexico...while we were still waiting on sampling from more energy to come in from the Pac.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Very similar to a system in early December...I think Hoosier would remember this too as he kept bringing up the point about some of the energy going into data void regions of mexico...while we were still waiting on sampling from more energy to come in from the Pac.... IIRC writing was on the wall with that one before it even got into Mexico...sloppy vort ejection with the ULL detached well northwest of the SLP. Hopefully we don't do that again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The 102hr image off the 6z GFS with H5 vorticity is scary close to GHD with the phasing and the negative tilt wave ejecting out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 IIRC writing was on the wall with that one before it even got into Mexico...sloppy vort ejection with the ULL detached well northwest of the SLP. Hopefully we don't do that again. yeah...things were ubber progressive and I believe there ended up being a transfer to a main coastal LP off Delmarva....but the transfer had been fairly well advertised in the models...There haven't been as many hints at the swift transfer with this setup...but there also haven't been many members showing anything going sub 1000...in the OV. One thing of note (if one deems the setups similar) was that it did end up cutting more than what models had showed even 24 hours previous to it's impacts. And filed under FWIW, but the RAP (not including the last hour of it's runs H17, H18), picked up on the slow ticks west with a little stronger surface reflection and a degree of less earlier transferring than most of the other guidance....but obviously all filed under FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doc294 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The nam is showing the potential. Look at this two powerful vorts. This has a sick convergence in the central plains. Look how tight those flows are into New York. Those two vorts look like slingshots at the ready Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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