gosaints Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Nice to know we have the main vort dialed in at 100 plus hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 lol friv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Oh and I don't really care what happens because Jesus couldn't pull this far enough west to jackpot me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 lol friv. The only thing in this kind of set-up that could really screw us on the West side of the Subforum is having the Vort max track over the Northern Texas panhandle. the Euro/GFS/GEM bring the vort into a closer track as it gets to Missouri area. But the trajectory of the Vort max out of Texas will have major implications on our weather. I always figured it would track NE/NNE for a while. But given the depth of the trough and how the vort max tracks threw Northern Mexico. I don't buy what the GFS is selling. If it wasn't for the speed of this the GFS outcome would end up screwing almost everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 As long as we avoid a sloppy piecemeal ejection of the sw (common and plenty of time to crop up), i'll remain confident in future nw shifts, not only in track, but slp development. Gonna ride this call until I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 As long as we avoid a sloppy piecemeal ejection of the sw (common and plenty of time to crop up), i'll remain confident in future nw shifts, not only in track, but slp development. Gonna ride this call until I'm wrong. You should change your avatar to John Kerry. you can have your NW trend. As long as the vort digs far enough SE to not screw me first. Or there will Back-smacks galore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The nam is still blowing up a system over the Southern plains around day 2.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Too much uncertainty right now for me to get excited. So far, to this point, temps and precip at the time of the event, as modeled so far, look good. But, at 100+ hours out, lots of time for things to change..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 you can have your NW trend. As long as the vort digs far enough SE to not screw me first. I also want the vort max to dig as far south as it can. It will allow a better chance for more moisture to get into the cold sector as its able to take on a true negative tilt, since we're not dealing with a shortwave that will already be closed off. So I'm completely with you there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I know it's an exercise in futility. But the NAM is showing an explosive set up. The day 3 system is much stronger than the gfs and other models show. Look at the vort out West then the powerful one over the PNW dropping down behind it. The vort max will end up swinging way down in Mexico probably coming out somewhere ove the Rio Grande in Texas. But with two powerhouses possibly phasing that would probably end up being a closed offf H5 bowling ball for a while before it's pulled into the PV. This screams EPIC ICE AND SNOW. This would be a radically game changer turning this thing into BEAST MODE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Just for some visual reference.. 102hr fcst off the GFS for GHD 72hr fcst.. And the SREF members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Can't wait for another snow to mess storm here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 GFS is coming in pretty hot through 81 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Looking more like the 12Z solution so far.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The gfs is stronger for sure at the upper levels but it's still confused on how to handle the vorts. Looks like it keeps getting sheared out. A strong vort actually moves ESE from the Northern Texas Pandhandle to about this point before the Northern vort over Northern MO takes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Ice ice baby (Southern Indiana) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The GFS is colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Looking more like the 12Z solution so far.... good trend at 500....lots more confluence showing up... Appears to be all ice for us too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 00z GGEM track looks close to the 12z run so far...maybe a bit north. Surface low in central KY at 120 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 00z GGEM track looks close to the 12z run so far. Surface low in central KY at 120 hours. I think it's a bit west of 12z.... gfs went a bit east....ggem a bit west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I think it's a bit west of 12z.... gfs went a bit east....ggem a bit west. Yeah I edited my post. Could be west but hard to tell given that I'm looking at 12 hour time intervals.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 00z GGEM track looks close to the 12z run so far...maybe a bit north. Surface low in central KY at 120 hours. [angrysummons/alek] needs to be 200 miles northwest [/angrysummons/alek] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Brant Miller on NBC just showed this storm basically clobbering the Chicago area.... LOL Brant Miller LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 [angrysummons/alek] needs to be 200 miles northwest [/angrysummons/alek] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Yeah I edited my post. Could be west but hard to tell given that I'm looking at 12 hour time intervals.. I'll have to check out on wxbell ..... my guess is it makes it into south central OH at that trajectory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I'll have to check out on wxbell ..... my guess is it makes it into south central OH at that trajectory Surface low looks like it's in southwest NY at 132 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 at 132 on the ggem the low is around buffalo-ish. So it goes from Lexington to Buffalo, probably cutting up thru eastern OH. I'll call it a 'wobble' west (it's only a trend if its good) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 This is getting close. The GGEM has a strong vort max over the TX/OK border trailing into Texas now on both the GFS and GGEM. The confluence showing up out front is huge because the PV and SE are elongated Parrallel to each other. So the jet is just raging. this cuases issues with shearing the system out into a weaker northern side wave vs the Southern stronger wave holding on, slowing down and amplifying after digging a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 This is getting close. The GGEM has a strong vort max over the TX/OK border trailing into Texas now on both the GFS and GGEM. The confluence showing up out front is huge because the PV and SE are elongated Parrallel to each other. So the jet is just raging. this cuases issues with shearing the system out into a weaker northern side wave vs the Southern stronger wave holding on, slowing down and amplifying after digging a bit more. 00z gfs also showing a lot more confluence. Would be good for a lot of us because it could become more w-e oriented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I almost feel as if the forecast and models won't tighten up until after tomorrow's-Saturday's storm passes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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