The_Global_Warmer Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The GFS ejects the SLP over ENE Texas/Southern Arkansas.The rest of them from Brownsville up to TX/LA border. I am going to say that the GFS is wrong. Doesn't mean it can't come North. But it's not coming out of NE Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The GFS ejects the SLP over ENE Texas/Southern Arkansas. The rest of them from Brownsville up to TX/LA border. I am going to say that the GFS is wrong. Doesn't mean it can't come North. But it's not coming out of NE Texas. disagree, in my experience, models are often too far south with lee side cyclogenisis in this kind of 500 mb setup, especially with the modeled 850 thermal gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Watching and waiting... looks like a fun week. After that, I'm ready for Morch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Ugh. Time to punt yet another one to Chicago and Detroit. Time for more rippage posts in IL/IN. Yay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Ugh. Time to punt yet another one to Chicago and Detroit. Time for more rippage posts in IL/IN. Yay. Just be thankful you don't live in Fargo or Omaha. I'd rather have to deal with rain than go through utterly cold and dry weather like they've had (in the case of Fargo, clippers notwithstanding). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Ugh. Time to punt yet another one to Chicago and Detroit. Time for more rippage posts in IL/IN. Yay. 5 days out and your punting?? Never!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 5 days out and your punting?? Never!! The writing is on the wall, Steve. Unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 If the surface low actually comes out of the western Gulf, then it will make it a bit more difficult to hook enough in time to cause ptype problems here. But there are no guarantees...GHD came out of southern TX/western GOM and we know how that turned out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 currently favoring a track just east of DTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 If the surface low actually comes out of the western Gulf, then it will make it a bit more difficult to hook enough in time to cause ptype problems here. But there are no guarantees...GHD came out of southern TX/western GOM and we know how that turned out here. This system is going to have more of a NE or NNE trajectory compared to the thing coming tomorrow. The big question mark will be where it ejects from, I don't think it will be as far north as the GFS currently. This thing digs too far south for it to come out of NE Texas. Somewhere near Houston would make a bit more sense currently looking at the 500mb pattern projected at the time of ejection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 My current take on this: Axis of delight will be IRK-ORD-MBS-YYZ, 10-15 inches with 15-20 pockets with lake enhancement. Mostly mixed or frozen STL-SPI-LAF-CLE but still 4-7 inch snows in total for this zone Heavy freezing rain swath a little further south could include HUF, IND, CMH Flooding rains south central to Ohio valley esp ne AR, se MO, KY The northward trend has probably reached its end game now, might even see a slight return south but seems to be locking in to an almost ideal track for the northern half of this forum (excluding the further north MN and WI readers who might see 4-7). About 6-10 for IA during a less active early stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Not focusing on anyone's backyard in particular...there are some pretty exciting solutions on the 18z GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Not focusing on anyone's backyard in particular...there are some pretty exciting solutions on the 18z GEFS. Yeah some classic Central Lakes cutters (ie. Lower Michigan). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 My current take on this: Axis of delight will be IRK-ORD-MBS-YYZ, 10-15 inches with 15-20 pockets with lake enhancement. Mostly mixed or frozen STL-SPI-LAF-CLE but still 4-7 inch snows in total for this zone Heavy freezing rain swath a little further south could include HUF, IND, CMH Flooding rains south central to Ohio valley esp ne AR, se MO, KY The northward trend has probably reached its end game now, might even see a slight return south but seems to be locking in to an almost ideal track for the northern half of this forum (excluding the further north MN and WI readers who might see 4-7). About 6-10 for IA during a less active early stage. That it is an unusual track for the heaviest snows. I think it would be more like ORD-FNT-YYZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*IndyMeso* Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Just so you all are aware, Someone managed to swipe Indy's Channel 13 (WTHR) copyrighted logo and images and changed the snowfall map to match early numbers of 30+ inches. WTHR has apparently taken to Twitter but let your fellow friends and family fakes are circulating. I just don't get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Just so you all are aware, Someone managed to swipe Indy's Channel 13 (WTHR) copyrighted logo and images and changed the snowfall map to match early numbers of 30+ inches. WTHR has apparently taken to Twitter but let your fellow friends and family fakes are circulating. I just don't get it. That's just crazy.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chances14 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 yea now people are resorting to faking snowfall maps. good lord Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*IndyMeso* Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 yea now people are resorting to faking snowfall maps. good lord I don't get it. Why is THIS storm getting people so crazy? I've never seen it this bad as to people photoshopping maps. What are they getting out of it? I could go on for days but this is ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 lol, weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I don't get it. Why is THIS storm getting people so crazy? I've never seen it this bad as to people photoshopping maps. What are they getting out of it? I could go on for days but this is ridiculous. Maybe it was the amount of snow that have made some people go crazy.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Anyone have any graphics handy for the ice potential with this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Multiple meltdown warnings for this storm out side of the weather forum word issued. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 It's always funny to see folks who insist it will or won't shift this way or that & then look at their location...lol. Even the NWS offices sometimes get caught up in subjective thinking. There's way to much involved with this system for anyone to be thinking that a particular shift or particular model solution will take place: PV coming from Asia needs to be sampled ....the piece of PV in East Canada & whether it stays or moves NE is another issue ...all the pieces of the system have yet to be sampled ...we have two shortwaves to get out of the way & what they do can have impacts on this system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I don't get it. Why is THIS storm getting people so crazy? I've never seen it this bad as to people photoshopping maps. What are they getting out of it? I could go on for days but this is ridiculous. I think a lot if people "forgot" about winter until the "polar vortex" arrived. Now everyone is hypersensitive, and acting like the fantasy storms don't show up every couple weeks on the models. Didn't hear a peep out of the general public when the euro showed 20+ inches in December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The GFS is having issues handling the vort max. It plows it through Northern Mexico into SW New Mexico. Then jumps to Northern Texas as the dominant wave. I don't think that is likely. Gonna go with no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 So here is what it looks like at H5 in 6 hour increments. Vort max is over the far SW corner of NM. Then six hours later it's over Northeast New Mexico about to roll through the Northern Texas Panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Im liking the potential with this one...but Im worried we are jinxing it by focusing so intensely on it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 So here is what it looks like at H5 in 6 hour increments. Vort max is over the far SW corner of NM. Then six hours later it's over Northeast New Mexico about to roll through the Northern Texas Panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Lol nice battle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I don't think that is going to be enough to pull main vorticity out of Northern Mexico/SW NM to the Northern Panhandle of Texas in 6-8 hours as it starts to slide Eastward. But there will obviously be a NE vault as it leaves Northern Mexico. Unless a flatter more shallow trough shows up with the energy not digging near as much. But at this point all of the models shows the vort max coming out of the SW with the main vort taking over NE of the previous track. Just not jumping 400 miles in 6 hours and then fumbling around with the energy as much. Obviously people in Chicago want the 12z and 18z GFS to be right. While the rest of us want all of the other guidance to be right. So I guess we wait until more guidance comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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