KeenerWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I'm so punting this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Late December storm, the Euro had ORD pegged for 15" of snow 8 days out, turned out it shifted way north and we ended up with 1.25" of rain. Euro was a south outlier on that early on if I recall, although there were a couple nice fantasy runs. GFS was smooth and relatively steady in a more northern solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The synoptics of this storm are going to depend highly on the one preceding it. A bit premature, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The synoptics of this storm are going to depend highly on the one preceding it. A bit premature, no? But thats how we like to dream here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I wonder what the farthest nw this can go? I will stand by my A+ call for this winter, but I still will be disappointed if we get rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The deep southwest/PAC drive of the trough doesn't bode well for many. The GFS has been to cold and suppressed for a week. Struggling after 48hrs just to align its heights correctly. Who are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 18z GFS has the big dog as well. I'm not concerned with track issues at present. Just want to see at this stage how many models latch on to something big in this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Who are you? Meet the mastermind behind the SE Ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I wonder what the farthest nw this can go? I will stand by my A+ call for this winter, but I still will be disappointed if we get rain! probably over ORD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 probably over ORD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 It's very ironic but IWX has scheduled their very first regional spotter training session for their CWA at Notre Dame on Feb. 4. We'll probably have a blizzard and they will have to reschedule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 probably over ORD I think right over your bank clock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Not too worried about a large northward shift, would expect this to drop 7-12 inch snows rather than what Euro shows today, but perhaps more of concern, a significant freezing rain risk for the Ohio valley as far north as almost SPI-IND-CMH, possible half inch glaze for EVV and SDF. Toronto shield may need emergency fix to remain operational, very early call is 20 cm. Well, your call of 10-15cm (4-6") for yesterday was reasonable (I got 4"), so I hope you're right. Rain would blow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Well, your call of 10-15cm (4-6") for yesterday was reasonable (I got 4"), so I hope you're right. Rain would blow. If it wasn't for our horrendous luck, I'd feel pretty good about this storm doing some nice things to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
princessugly Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Nonono, we want it more north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Ha I remember when the DGEX had 12" of snow for western IL during that may cold core event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Nonono, we want it more north. Looks perfect to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I think right over your bank clock. That would give you a chance I guess to catch up to northern IL's snowfall tallies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 My thoughts on this system. Based primarily on the GEM and GFS ensemble means height anomalies + the Euro ensemble heights w/o the anomalies shown are these. #1 Based on the strength of the EPO ridge visa vi the southeastern ridge, said EPO ridge is much stronger. Thus I don't see the western trough moving much further west than currently progged. I would give this storm about a 3 in 10 chance of moving more than a 100 miles to the NW, more like 50 miles to be honest with you. What I think is more likely is that it will drift more south and east, and I give that solution a 6 in 10 chance of happening. I may as well be watching this storm from Siberia instead of the northern part of the TC metro. #2 This may well be the favored track of any storms that originate from a western trough thru the middle of February, if not somewhat later. It will lay down a decent snow pack to our south and keep us from instant spring come March. #3 March could be epic around these parts. Getting tired of forecasting 2-4" clippers and cold temps for my friends and family. #4 Congrats to most of this subfourm with their outstanding snowfall's this year. While we here are very close to normal, I think the largest snowfall at MSP for the season is 4.5" from a single storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 That would give you a chance I guess to catch up to northern IL's snowfall tallies! Nope, it would be mostly a rainer/freezing rainer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 You know a big dog is lurking when the DGEX gets posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Looks perfect to me. It does look nice. Hope it happens, my friend. My thoughts on this system. Based primarily on the GEM and GFS ensemble means height anomalies + the Euro ensemble heights w/o the anomalies shown are these. #1 Based on the strength of the EPO ridge visa vi the southeastern ridge, said EPO ridge is much stronger. Thus I don't see the western trough moving much further west than currently progged. I would give this storm about a 3 in 10 chance of moving more than a 100 miles to the NW, more like 50 miles to be honest with you. What I think is more likely is that it will drift more south and east, and I give that solution a 6 in 10 chance of happening. I may as well be watching this storm from Siberia instead of the northern part of the TC metro. #2 This may well be the favored track of any storms that originate from a western trough thru the middle of February, if not somewhat later. It will lay down a decent snow pack to our south and keep us from instant spring come March. #3 March could be epic around these parts. Getting tired of forecasting 2-4" clippers and cold temps for my friends and family. #4 Congrats to most of this subfourm with their outstanding snowfall's this year. While we here are very close to normal, I think the largest snowfall at MSP for the season is 4.5" from a single storm. And so shall it be said. If I can get to 60" and a beyond by the end of February...you guys can have all of the snow in March, and April. Boats, wagons, and dump trucks full. Deal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 FTW I'd feel better about our chances along I-70 if that axis was shown cutting thru Nashville. I already have the congrat cards printed and postmarked to Alek, Harry, and Josh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 (sing to the tune of Woody Woodpecker) Clippers and hybrids, clippers and hybrids, every day they come by with snow, now there's a cutter, stay in the gutter, cuz we need some in Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 It does look nice. Hope it happens, my friend. And so shall it be said. If I can get to 60" and a beyond by the end of February...you guys can have all of the snow in March, and April. Boats, wagons, and dump trucks full. Deal? I'll take it, give me a couple of 15" dumps in March with temps around 25°, that would be much better than going out to start my truck and letting it run until it gets to operating temp while air temps are in the mid teen's to mid 20's below!!! Obvious that I don't have remote start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 (sing to the tune of Woody Woodpecker) Clippers and hybrids, clippers and hybrids, every day they come by with snow, now there's a cutter, stay in the gutter, cuz we need some in Toronto. LMAO!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 probably over ORD As it stands right now, no. There is a W-E block across Southern Canada, which is why we are seeing a lot of flatter solutions. Obviously though this could change between now and then but as of right now even if it dug some it would eventually shunt East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 It does look nice. Hope it happens, my friend. And so shall it be said. If I can get to 60" and a beyond by the end of February...you guys can have all of the snow in March, and April. Boats, wagons, and dump trucks full. Deal? Where are you so far with snow total's for the season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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