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February 4-5th Winter Storm


Chicago Storm

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Not too worried about a large northward shift, would expect this to drop 7-12 inch snows rather than what Euro shows today, but perhaps more of concern, a significant freezing rain risk for the Ohio valley as far north as almost SPI-IND-CMH, possible half inch glaze for EVV and SDF.

 

Toronto shield may need emergency fix to remain operational, very early call is 20 cm.

Well, your call of 10-15cm (4-6") for yesterday was reasonable (I got 4"), so I hope you're right. Rain would blow.

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My thoughts on this system.  Based primarily on the GEM and GFS ensemble means height anomalies + the Euro ensemble heights w/o the anomalies shown are these.

 

#1 Based on the strength of the EPO ridge visa vi the southeastern ridge, said EPO ridge is much stronger.  Thus I don't see the western trough moving much further west than currently progged. I would give this storm about a 3 in 10 chance of moving more than a 100 miles to the NW, more like 50 miles to be honest with you.  What I think is more likely is that it will drift more south and east, and I give that solution a 6 in 10 chance of happening.  I may as well be watching this storm from Siberia instead of the northern part of the TC metro.

 

#2 This may well be the favored track of any storms that originate from a western trough thru the middle of February, if not somewhat later. It will lay down a decent snow pack to our south and keep us from instant spring come March.

 

#3 March could be epic around these parts.  Getting tired of forecasting 2-4" clippers and cold temps for my friends and family.

 

#4 Congrats to most of this subfourm  with their outstanding snowfall's this year.  While we here are very close to normal,  I think the largest snowfall at MSP for the season is 4.5" from a single storm.

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Looks perfect to me.  :thumbsup:

 

It does look nice. Hope it happens, my friend.

 

My thoughts on this system.  Based primarily on the GEM and GFS ensemble means height anomalies + the Euro ensemble heights w/o the anomalies shown are these.

 

#1 Based on the strength of the EPO ridge visa vi the southeastern ridge, said EPO ridge is much stronger.  Thus I don't see the western trough moving much further west than currently progged. I would give this storm about a 3 in 10 chance of moving more than a 100 miles to the NW, more like 50 miles to be honest with you.  What I think is more likely is that it will drift more south and east, and I give that solution a 6 in 10 chance of happening.  I may as well be watching this storm from Siberia instead of the northern part of the TC metro.

 

#2 This may well be the favored track of any storms that originate from a western trough thru the middle of February, if not somewhat later. It will lay down a decent snow pack to our south and keep us from instant spring come March.

 

#3 March could be epic around these parts.  Getting tired of forecasting 2-4" clippers and cold temps for my friends and family.

 

#4 Congrats to most of this subfourm  with their outstanding snowfall's this year.  While we here are very close to normal,  I think the largest snowfall at MSP for the season is 4.5" from a single storm.

 

And so shall it be said. If I can get to 60" and a beyond by the end of February...you guys can have all of the snow in March, and April. Boats, wagons, and dump trucks full. Deal? :D

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It does look nice. Hope it happens, my friend.

 

 

And so shall it be said. If I can get to 60" and a beyond by the end of February...you guys can have all of the snow in March, and April. Boats, wagons, and dump trucks full. Deal? :D

 

I'll take it, give me a couple of 15" dumps in March with temps around 25°, that would be much better than going out to start my truck and letting it run until it gets to operating temp while air temps are in the mid teen's to mid 20's below!!!    :weenie:

 

Obvious that I don't have remote start?  :violin:

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probably over ORD

As it stands right now, no. There is a W-E block across Southern Canada, which is why we are seeing a lot of flatter solutions. Obviously though this could change between now and then but as of right now even if it dug some it would eventually shunt East.

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