The_Global_Warmer Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I think this has about a 3% chance of happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The Gem has about the same handling. By splitting the vorticity apart and having a stronger 2nd wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 ECMWF came NW and is more organized than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 ECMWF came NW and is more organized than the GFS. Not much cold sector precipitation due to the positive tilted trough, but it is a good change for those to the north who were getting blanked on the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 ECMWF came NW and is more organized than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I hope this storm doesn't leave the SE fringe having on to long. Because it's still I'd say about 95% more likely it's more organized and further NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Just looking at the 06z up to this point I expect this to be a more amped up run. Edit: way more amped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Just looking at the 06z up to this point I expect this to be a more amped up run. Edit: way more amped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Low tracks from Texarkana to Cincinati to Akron, looks great for north of a line from KC to North of STL to North of Indy to Akron. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Best part about this, it doesn't transfer to the coast until it is well east of the region by in large. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The differences over the Pacific are absurd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 wagons of snow on the 6z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Piles on my driveway this time next week might be as high as 6-7 feet!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Yup, I'll take my medicine, shouldn't have punted this one. If we get the current model forecast with storm 1 and storm 2 together, plus my current snowpack= Historical depths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Chuck Gaidica has started pimping this one and he upgraded storm 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Yup, I'll take my medicine, shouldn't have punted this one. If we get the current model forecast with storm 1 and storm 2 together, plus my current snowpack= Historical depths. you'll be worrying about rain before all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Rain line pretty close for a time on the 6z GFS, for LAF. Good stuff. Interesting that the GFS is leading the north pack with this storm. Usually that's not the case, in the still medium range. Obviously lots of time to go though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 6z gfs. Just looking at the individual ens members I only counted 2 that were more amped than the OP, all the rest were southeast, a few significantly so.....but who the hell knows at this point. GFS has yet to have two consistent runs in a row. Meanwhile euro ens, including 00z, have been steadfast with a low to WV. Of course the way this winter has been, if the FIM was the only model showing a Chicago to Detroit hit, it woulld score the coupe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 without going out too far in the future...i'm just not seeing any major players to prevent heights in the east front rising even further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 lol, you made me look at the FIM. Just for fun and entertainment value, which is what most of these models are right now, but...it's a fairly big hit of something wintry for LAF. Looks like it takes the low overtop CVG to the northeast corner of OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 So I guess we're wagons NW again. 00z models from 1/29/14 definitely ingested some bad data. FWIW (not an awful lot), the 06z DGEX has mixing issues here with the low tracking just SE of Detroit. Very narrow corridor of heavy snow though (along a LAF-TOL-DTW line NW to along a FNT-SBN-STL line), as majority of the precipitation is in the warm sector Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 without going out too far in the future...i'm just not seeing any major players to prevent heights in the east front rising even further. I agree with you on that map verbatim . Things that could help beat down heights, the sw lobe of the vortex modeling stronger and further sw, stronger confluence, and a quicker northern stream. But yea, if the above map verifies....that's game over for anyone southeast of a line from CLE...to Indy...I would imagine the slp would even be stronger. Confluence should keep it from going too far crazy north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 without going out too far in the future...i'm just not seeing any major players to prevent heights in the east front rising even further. A few things stick out on that map and are as follows; 1) Weak SE ridge anomaly. We can see the plume of warmth driving from the Gulf thru the SE. Argues for a suppressed track. 2) Plenty of cold air across Canada. Part of the PV situated across Hudson Bay with widespread cold anomalies thru out the region. 3) Two waves of energy at play. Timing is key in determining the strength and track of the LP. Still ways out but these factors stick out amongst all the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 A few things stick out on that map and are as follows; 1) Weak SE ridge anomaly. We can see the plume of warmth driving from the Gulf thru the SE. Argues for a suppressed track. 2) Plenty of cold air across Canada. Part of the PV situated across Hudson Bay with widespread cold anomalies thru out the region. 3) Two waves of energy at play. Timing is key in determining the strength and track of the LP. Still ways out but these factors stick out amongst all the models. the southeast ridge eventually pops but it's in response to the digging shortwave, not the other way around. I guess the other question is what is causing the gfs to go neg so fast....is it the phasing in of the northern branch? If so, like you said...timing timing timing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 the southeast ridge eventually pops but it's in response to the digging shortwave, not the other way around. I guess the other question is what is causing the gfs to go neg so fast....is it the phasing in of the northern branch? If so, like you said...timing timing timing The SE ridge is always there; however, its weak and thus its effects are negated. Once the S/W begins digging, it sort of pops out of hiding like you said, and drives a plume of warmth out ahead of it. Models this far out tend to be too progressive or slow. These types of situations arent correctly modeled this far out and you end up getting a wide variety of solutions, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Latest GFS looks like .35 to .50 over NE IL. 850's are pretty cold throughout, and surface temps look to be in the 20's,. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 nothing groundbreaking from the 12z GFS but 500mb heights a bit higher in the east compared to 6z EDIT: trying to look for changes somewhat earlier in the run before looking too far down the pipe. Also looks a bit stronger at 850 at this point as well, a little backing as well over the plains. 6z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Pretty nice run for LAF. Just needs to hold for another 5-6 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Nice not to see a massive shift with this run...moderate to huge hit for many EDIT: i still think it trends NW with time but we aren't seeing signs of a sloppy piecemeal ejection or anything which is nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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