RyanDe680 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 In looking at GHD 2011, this is the image 3 days out of the projections, rather tight. Interesting to note that the amount of snow that fell in Chicago was pretty darn high the further south the storm dug to pull in the gulf moisture. Looking at the projected tracks at the time that over a foot of snow was already forecast show its hitting the tip of southern IL into southern OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 GHD is getting talked about a lot. But even though there were some suppressed runs thrown in (especially outside 120 hrs), we were seeing pretty consistent signs of a high quality phase and neg tilt tough which we just aren't seeing now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 In looking at GHD 2011, this is the image 3 days out of the projections, rather tight. Interesting to note that the amount of snow that fell in Chicago was pretty darn high the further south the storm dug to pull in the gulf moisture. Looking at the projected tracks at the time that over a foot of snow was already forecast show its hitting the tip of southern IL into southern OH. CMC & GEM? Same model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 GHD is getting talked about a lot. But even though there were some suppressed runs thrown in (especially outside 120 hrs), we were seeing pretty consistent signs of a high quality phase and neg tilt tough which we just aren't seeing now. It's the new Jan 1999. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 CMC & GEM? Same model. lol, and that image has the JMA on it. Truly worthy of joining that group. And looks like the Ukie sat that one out without a track...or just took residence in MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 GHD is getting talked about a lot. But even though there were some suppressed runs thrown in (especially outside 120 hrs), we were seeing pretty consistent signs of a high quality phase and neg tilt tough which we just aren't seeing now. Yup. I see similarities early on along the WC but after that, compare for yourself... Feb 1, 2011 vs 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 It's the new Jan 1999. yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 It's the new Jan 1999. And how many times since 1999 has that storm been even remotely replicated? Zero by my count. GHD will be no different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 the afternoon Grand Rapids AFD explained things nicely and blunt. basically if this system remains unphased the southern solutions will prevail and the more phasing we see between the polar and subtropical jet, the more north this thing will pull. so phasing really is one of the biggest factors to watch. 18z run of gfs was hinting at this. now just have to watch for trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Yup. I see similarities early on along the WC but after that, compare for yourself... Feb 1, 2011 vs 18z GFS Also with Feb 2011 the energy dug more westward, allowing for a pretty powerful hook. I recall the PNW receiving quite the arctic outbreak and snowfall. This time around it's a bit weak in terms of how the energy digs. The momentum isn't as impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Yeah there is a particular TV met in the QC that has really gone off the deep end in that regard this winter. Even posting it with a disclaimer is pretty unprofessional IMO. I know who you speak of. He's an experienced forecaster but he posts those maps via his personal page from Facebook. He will always show maps out 10-14 days with snow totals and then giving those disclaimers saying it isn't a forecast. He really should understand people with no weather savvy don't understand that. And IMO its just unprofessional at the end of the day. Storms in fantasy land go all over the place generally until we're about two or three days out if you're lucky. Models this Winter have had a difficult time even with systems within 24hrs. He'll learn I'd think at some point. He's taken a beating from some people already. Regarding the system next week...I just don't wanna see that phasing happen to darn soon and have this thing cut to far W. That'd be disappointing but I think the safe bet is still a more Southerly solution, especially with an intense Arctic high trying to poke back in but it'll be a battle royal with ridging getting going over the SE...where will that path of least resistance set up for anything to go? Its the golden question on this pup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chances14 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I wasn't around here for GHD, but how did the early January storm compare for you folks who got hit hard by both GHD and January 4-5,2014 in terms of enjoyment? being roughly 50 miles north of detroit, the January 4-5 storm far exceeded GHD imo. more snow and more wind and cold with the January storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 About the same in terms of storm impacts here. But the hype prior to the onset of GHD 2011 was unprecedented. id say the impact was a little worse this year because the storm wasn't as long a duration as GHD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 id say the impact was a little worse this year because the storm wasn't as long a duration as GHD. But GHD 2011 had worse snow/wind combined, at least for a short period of time (also, didn't you get thundersnow with GHD 2011?). So it equals out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 In looking at GHD 2011, this is the image 3 days out of the projections, rather tight. Interesting to note that the amount of snow that fell in Chicago was pretty darn high the further south the storm dug to pull in the gulf moisture. Looking at the projected tracks at the time that over a foot of snow was already forecast show its hitting the tip of southern IL into southern OH. weird, I don't recall that one being modeled as a hit here 3 days out. But my memory on these things sucks lol the afternoon Grand Rapids AFD explained things nicely and blunt. basically if this system remains unphased the southern solutions will prevail and the more phasing we see between the polar and subtropical jet, the more north this thing will pull. so phasing really is one of the biggest factors to watch. 18z run of gfs was hinting at this. now just have to watch for trends it really Is that simple. GFS shows it perfectly, what happens if the southern stream gets out in front and a northern piece is able to drop in and phase. Big height rises in front and hard left turn. If northern stream stays more progressive and out in front, it'll suppress heights and we have the euro solution. Either solution is on the table and no idea which one is more likely to happen. We really haven't had a subtropical jet to play with this winter yet so it's hard to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Just for more lulz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 But GHD 2011 had worse snow/wind combined, at least for a short period of time (also, didn't you get thundersnow with GHD 2011?). So it equals out. Yes I did get thundersnow. I agree both were kind of similar storms...though my depth after ghd was 13", after this January 5 it was 17"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Yes I did get thundersnow. I agree both were kind of similar storms...though my depth after ghd was 13", after this January 5 it was 17"! That shouldn't count for comparison purposes though, given that we had a hell of a head start before the early January storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 GHD was by far the better of the two storms here. The totals here with 2 - 3 days of LES after Jan. 6 equaled what happened with just one day/night for the GHD storm. The wind was there with both storms so not much difference there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 This is about as surefire this far out as it gets with St. Louis. Thanks to the PV. Something will have to change a lot to pull this thing North through Southern Mo. If the storm is stronger and ejects that far South like SE Texas. Then when you factor the confluence over the lakes. It will be really tough for this to end up far enough West coming out of E/SE Texas where we don't get snow and sleet before ending as snow. West for a Southern IN/OH person is definitely more of a concern in these setups. When we talk about needing a NW trend. My area needs to be in a good spot at the point where the SLP leaves Texas. If this was going to come out of Oklahoma it could be quickly going from snow to mix or rain. Coming out of Eastern Texas it will be tough for a non closed off bowling ball to go to far NW of STL period. Let alone wirh that PV causing massive confluence. and speeding things along. One reason we never get 20-25" snows the cyclones are typically moving to fast. If they are slow they are almost always to far NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 pretty bad when the nws has to issue this We have 2 seperate Michigan facebook crews posting this stuff WAY out in advance. I have one friended, the other one I don't, BUT it got linked TWICE in 2 days from friends who aren't weather enthusiasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 A little OT but I've noticed IWX hasn't even mentioned this storm in their long term discos even though the last three discussions were within their seven day range. I find that odd that nothing has been said about the possibility of a storm impacting their CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 weird, I don't recall that one being modeled as a hit here 3 days out. But my memory on these things sucks lol. That graphic looks like it's from one of the Cleveland TV stations. That graphic must have been made just before a drastic northwest shift. I don't think there was too much disappointment in Ohio from that as there was probably a good 4 day lead time here of showing nothing. In fact, I can't even recall the GHD storm, so I'm assuming it was a non event here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Secondly this system is hauling ass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 A little OT but I've noticed IWX hasn't even mentioned this storm in their long term discos even though the last three discussions were within their seven day range. I find that odd that nothing has been said about the possibility of a storm impacting their CWA. Noticed that as well in their AFD's. I think they want to play it cautious and not hype until they have a valid scientific reason to do so, unlike other forecasters who can be more sensationalist with respect to model swings and excessive qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Any takers on where the GFS and or Euro go on these next runs...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 NorthGuess I could have been a little more specific. Lol City to city track...I'm going with euro/gfs mean putting the low Shreveport up to Nashville and then west of Pittsburgh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Early guess on the 00z GFS is that it may try to come north based on how it looks at 102 hours. By how much, not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Early guess is gfs comes north and stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.