buckeye Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Ewwww, looks like an ugly ice storm for CMH. Weird to see the GFS as the more northerly model. 12z showed .47 freezing rain....this looks like it would warm up and alleviate any icestorm threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 The idea of a partial/sloppy vort ejection leading to the main vort hanging way back and digging into oblivion isn't something we haven't seen before and appears to be gaining favor. We're still well into no-mans-land model range (see how much they are struggling with this weekends event) but the trends aren't good for anyone in the subforum looking for a major. I totally disagree. This is very favorable for the I70 crowd to get crushed at the very least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 wagons north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 18z GFS is farther north. Surface low is in eastern Ohio at 156 hours. so the sfc low went more south but the overall snow swath grew NW? b/c looking at the snow maps the heavy snow axis took quite a jump NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Would at some point like to see the models close off a mid level center with this thing. So far that's the main missing ingredient that'll turn this from a decent snowstorm to a monster. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I totally disagree. This is very favorable for the I70 crowd to get crushed at the very least. i might have jumped the gun. Gonna be playing a lot of xbox saturday watching the snow and model trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Don't forget the pre-Christmas hype that turned into a huge torch for many and a moderate snowstorm for the upper midwest. The energy is pretty far west, some differences up north with the sampling and we are talking about +10 therms visiting many. Nothing is off the table.Been a tough winter for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 so the sfc low went more south but the overall snow swath grew NW? b/c looking at the snow maps the heavy snow axis took quite a jump NW Surface low looked farther north to me than 12z. Not huge but noticeable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Surface low looked farther north to me than 12z. Not huge but noticeable. 850 low passes over far NW OH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 i might be the only angrysummons fan on the board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Surface low looked farther north to me than 12z. Not huge but noticeable. a lot of factors to come together for this to come farther NW. for once that arctic high needs to not sink so far south. need to watch how amplified the SE ridge becomes with possible -pna pattern in place. also eariler phasing with northern stream energy. models are goin to continue to struggle with these details for several days until the system begins to get sampled somewhat. my overall gut is telling me this will play the southern solution like Euro has but as a forecaster you have to look at trends and all possibilities. i mean just look at this weekend storm and how it is still flip flopping around. winter storms are WAY more complex creatures than spring time severe weather systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I like my position here in Elkhart county with the upcoming systems, both this weekend and next week. -PNA will certainly mean more zonal/sw flow if it continues and enhances chances for a big dog for a number of us in our forum. Getting difficult to figure out where to place snow removed from parking lots around here now. The mounds are already huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Oh my. 18z GFS could come further north. Much better alignment/phasing at 114hr. Northern stream wave further west. Gosh does this image bring back memories. still some work to do with that northern stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 i might have jumped the gun. Gonna be playing a lot of xbox saturday watching the snow and model trends Yeah, no biggie. With the phase potential and the models being all over the place with the PV placement over Southern Canada thi still have a wild range of possible outcomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I'm fearing the southern solutions may be the right call. And why is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 00z runs last night must have ingested some bad data based on the trends since then. We'll know for sure with tonight's 00z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 For the life of me I will never understand why any meteorologist would post snowfall maps on a facebook page when a system is more than 48hrs out. To many factors can change, heck many factors can change with 12-18 hours. Its just not a wise thing to do because viewers will think that's the forecast the meteorologist is given....then when it doesn't happen they get grief on their FB page... Gee I wonder why. I just don't get it. I know there is this rush to be first nowadays but the atmosphere has to many variables. As for the upcoming system next week....I'm still in the camp of generally favoring the Central or Southern Midwest for something decent happening eventually whether its next Tuesday or as late as the end of next week. Yeah there is a particular TV met in the QC that has really gone off the deep end in that regard this winter. Even posting it with a disclaimer is pretty unprofessional IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Still too early to say much. But I will puke if we get a repeat of GHD, or something similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Still too early to say much. But I will puke if we get a repeat of GHD, or something similar. lol I had that same thought earlier. Couldn't stomach another one like that especially so soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 From LOT AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE TRANSITION INTO A MORE -PNA PATTERN...COULDFAVOR A STRONG STORM SYSTEM OR TWO ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERNPORTION OF THE COUNTRY. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SUCH A SYSTEMCOULD DEVELOP ACROSS TEXAS BY TUESDAY...THEN SHIFT NORTHEASTWARDSOMEWHERE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. NOT TOO SURPRISING THAT THE MODELSARE JUMPING BACK AND FORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS WILL LIKELYCONTINUE TO BE THE CASE FOR A LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS GIVEN THECOMPLEXITIES WITH THIS EVOLVING WEATHER PATTERN. GIVEN THEUNCERTAINTIES...I HAVE CHOSEN TO STICK WITH THE GOING FORECAST FORSNOW CHANCES. NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL NOT NECESSARY BE IMPACTED BYTHIS SYSTEM...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS HIGH ENOUGH...THAT I FELTLOWERING POPS AT THIS TIME WAS UNJUSTIFIED. THERE ARE SEVERALVARIABLES THAT COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE ACTUAL TRACK OF THISSYSTEM...SUCH AS: 1.) HOW AND IF THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW PATTERNACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CANADA INTERACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM EARLYNEXT WEEK...AND 2.) HOW PRONOUNCED THE EVOLVING RIDGING ACROSS THESOUTHEASTERN CONUS BECOMES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Still too early to say much. But I will puke if we get a repeat of GHD, or something similar. lol I had that same thought earlier. Couldn't stomach another one like that especially so soon. I'll provide the buckets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I'll provide the buckets. you mean wagons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 And why is that? The energy digs into Mexico, I don't like the chances of this flinging our way. It would need to be a pretty steep hook. Just in terms of how this winter has been going with these hookers, it's quite a bit further south than systems which have paid off for us. It's still way early to tell, but I definitely have my concerns for my chances of cashing in. I think Chicago is still in it, though. At least for something. Well, really, this far out, we're all "still in it" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I wasn't around here for GHD, but how did the early January storm compare for you folks who got hit hard by both GHD and January 4-5,2014 in terms of enjoyment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 you mean wagons Good point. There's going to be a ton of puking happening. Buckets may not be enough to handle it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 lol I had that same thought earlier. Couldn't stomach another one like that especially so soon. I've been playing worse case scenarios, just for fun. I think I'd rather have a whiff/graze to the south than go through another sleet bomb. No offense to the posters up north of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I wasn't around here for GHD, but how did the early January storm compare for you folks who got hit hard by both GHD and January 4-5,2014 in terms of enjoyment? About the same in terms of storm impacts here. But the hype prior to the onset of GHD 2011 was unprecedented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I wasn't around here for GHD, but how did the early January storm compare for you folks who got hit hard by both GHD and January 4-5,2014 in terms of enjoyment? GHD was a massive amount of sleet here. Jan 5, 2014 was all snow, and plenty of it. No contest for LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 About the same in terms of storm impacts here. But the hype prior to the onset of GHD 2011 was unprecedented. Especially after Jim Cantore spotted thundersnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I've been playing worse case scenarios, just for fun. I think I'd rather have a whiff/graze to the south than go through another sleet bomb. No offense to the posters up north of course. none taken Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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