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February 4-5th Winter Storm


Chicago Storm

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Going to limit myself to the first storm on the EURO tonight.

 

 

LoL..  Yeah right lol, its only like 10:30 their compared to 12:30 back at home...  So sorry for the OT, Hoosier - slow night anyways ;)  How are you liking it out and up there?    I imagine (well I know you do by your post) you miss home but a few yrs away I would think would be cool and you should really extend the winter season out there I would think compared to back in Toronto.   I know it's not your snow but its still a thrill to watch snow fall and its not like you're only there on a week or so vacation so the snow and pack is definitely yours all winter.  I wish you luck this winter out there, fun, and good school grades the rest of this yr..   Oh yeah and I really need to get a Saskatchewan deer hunt crossed off by bucket list.  My old arse isn't getting any younger and you just never know what life is going to deal you the next day. 

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I think that experiencing a historic winter is more memorable than one storm (unless that storm is RIDICULOUS)...but if we could GET that storm in THIS winter....wow!!!

In all honesty the snows of this season haven't been very difficult to deal with. Right now I'm searching for the wow factor storm, something to just make the winter the best of the best for many decades.

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In all honesty the snows of this season haven't been very difficult to deal with. Right now I'm searching for the wow factor storm, something to just make the winter the best of the best for many decades.

 

I pretty much agree..  Wow factor storm (especially here and a little more) is needed to make this winter historic but everybody's interpretation of historic is different. Still a nice swath of haves+ this winter, throw in the cold, winds/drifting, snow, and its been pretty historic for sure for that swath with lots of potential and time left to add to that. 

 

Rough night of models watching for me and wiwx..  first two events kinna going meh and 3rd a whiff.

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LoL..  Yeah right lol, its only like 10:30 their compared to 12:30 back at home...  So sorry for the OT, Hoosier - slow night anyways ;)  How are you liking it out and up there?    I imagine (well I know you do by your post) you miss home but a few yrs away I would think would be cool and you should really extend the winter season out there I would think compared to back in Toronto.   I know it's not your snow but its still a thrill to watch snow fall and its not like you're only there on a week or so vacation so the snow and pack is definitely yours all winter.  I wish you luck this winter out there, fun, and good school grades the rest of this yr..   Oh yeah and I really need to get a Saskatchewan deer hunt crossed off by bucket list.  My old arse isn't getting any younger and you just never know what life is going to deal you the next day. 

 

Thanks Bowme. It is awesome to get the models so much earlier but it's been a long day anyway so going past 11:30 local time might kill me. Who cares what the EURO shows anyway? D8 and it's going to shift 1000 times. 

 

I haven't actually seen a flake of snow in about 3 weeks on account of this PNA ridge quashing everything in sight. That's the biggest adjustment. The long stretches of absolutely no precipitation. For a weather lover, it sucks. But we've had some nice near blizzard conditions back in November so it hasn't been all bad. Still, GLOV wx > prairie wx times 10. Could never live out here permanently just because of that unless I got a big $$$ job.

 

Haven't seen much deer but we have huge jack rabbits just wandering in the street. You'd love to shoot those.

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I pretty much agree..  Wow factor storm is needed to make this winter historic but everybodys interpretation of historic is different. Still a nice swath of haves+ this winter, throw in the cold, winds/drifing, snow, and its been pretty historic for sure for that swath with lots of potential to add to that. 

 

Rough night of models watching for me and wiwx..  first two events kinna going meh and 3rd a whiff.

 

Events are still up in the air, we may be in a bit of a screw zone though, hopefully the Euro disagrees.

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Events are still up in the air, we may be in a bit of a screw zone though, hopefully the Euro disagrees.

 

 

 

screw zone factor is pretty high for sure, but we've dealt with that all winter and still have  a tad over 40" (most being nickle and dime  - but I've had  enough times where it ripped to keep me cool for sure.)   Sure beats last winter so far no matter what..  Finally broke 10" of snow last yr  on this date...wow.  I guess at least we have no worries yet of a hard left turn giving us precip type issues (but I think I'd rather be worrying about that than having to worry if its going to be a  partly or mostly cloudy storm lol.)

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Thanks Bowme. It is awesome to get the models so much earlier but it's been a long day anyway so going past 11:30 local time might kill me. Who cares what the EURO shows anyway? D8 and it's going to shift 1000 times. 

 

I haven't actually seen a flake of snow in about 3 weeks on account of this PNA ridge quashing everything in sight. That's the biggest adjustment. The long stretches of absolutely no precipitation. For a weather lover, it sucks. But we've had some nice near blizzard conditions back in November so it hasn't been all bad. Still, GLOV wx > prairie wx times 10. Could never live out here permanently just because of that unless I got a big $$$ job.

 

Haven't seen much deer but we have huge jack rabbits just wandering in the street. You'd love to shoot those.

 

 

Yeah not sure how I'd do with that prairie wx climate compared to here.  Probably  kinna like how SNE views our MW area compared to theirs.  Yeah they beat us on big storms hands down, but most of that area can't compete with the cold and snow pack days which is first and foremost to me in winter..  I need as many snow cover days as possible..  nothing worse than having brown grass in winter.. We got 2+ good months of fall and spring for that ugliness with bald tree's tossed in.   

 

lol I can't kill rabbits or small game for some reason, (Jack rabbit mount though, hmm lol) just yummy deer and I still don't like doing it but know it has to be done for many reasons...  Tried small game and bird hunting but just couldn;t pull the trigger on them...    

 

Hopefully the new pattern and a wet snowy spring evolves for you.  I have no use for a +pna  I imagine out there its even worse as a snow nut..    Take care man and hope the future treats you right and makes you happy, you deserve it.

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Not sure if a similar signal is getting into the operational models, but the ESRL ensembles are now showing a brief period of +PNA centered around the time of the storm, then the PNA is forecast to tank again after the storm.

Sent from my SCH-I535

 

Per that the EPO even goes briefly + at the same time? From what i understand though nothing else really supports that with either of them? Granted the models have more then once tried to tank the PNA and failed miserably and thus see the post a few days ago by Don S in the main forum? Currently they are blowing it big time with the AO. So yeah i am not to sure how much i would trust modeling with all of this at this range?

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Not sure if a similar signal is getting into the operational models, but the ESRL ensembles are now showing a brief period of +PNA centered around the time of the storm, then the PNA is forecast to tank again after the storm.

Sent from my SCH-I535

 

Per that the EPO even goes briefly + at the same time? From what i understand though nothing else really supports that with either of them? Granted the models have more then once tried to tank the PNA and failed miserably and thus see the post a few days ago by Don S in the main forum? Currently they are blowing it big time with the AO. So yeah i am not to sure how much i would trust modeling with all of this at this range?

The ESRL ensembles have been all over the place in recent days and apparently don't have as good a track record as other models but thought it was interesting to see the +PNA. May have to take it with a grain of salt, but it's clear that all the models/ensembles are struggling with this pattern.

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0z ECMWF is going to be significantly different during this period too.

 

At 168hr the main disturbance in Mexico...New wave diving into the west coast...And the northern stream is lol worthy.

 

 

Reminds me of the GHD storm when at first Alek called it the Mexican blizzard, or something like that lol.  Northern stream lol worthy isn't a good sign.

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Gawd I thought I hated -NA0 with a passion, but +PNA can get bent with it.

 

 

Oh yeah.. A +PNA is often as terrible as a -NAO is especially the stronger it is. Problem is the ridge is too far inland which naturally forces the storm track to far east for most of us west of Detroit. Have to rely on clippers. For here i have found it is best when the PNA is as close to neutral or even slightly negative wont kill us with the -EPO/+NAO...

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