BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 We've had such an epic winter, I hope Toronto is the big winner in this storm as they have been left out all year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 We've had such an epic winter, I hope Toronto is the big winner in this storm as they have been left out all year. We won't be but thanks for the kind words. Early guess is the GFS is going to be in the south camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 We won't be but thanks for the kind words. Early guess is the GFS is going to be in the south camp. Pretty solid guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 We won't be but thanks for the kind words. Early guess is the GFS is going to be in the south camp. You don't think this storm will be a big deal for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 You don't think this storm will be a big deal for us? Didn't say that. We're not going to be the big winners though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Didn't say that. We're not going to be the big winners though. I hope we at least get a 4-6" storm out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Jeez, GFS ****ed everything up this run (as far as the more amped solutions are concerned). That sheared out stream of crap over OH/IN was not there before... 00z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Didn't say that. We're not going to be the big winners though. Couldn't anybody say that at this point though? Don't think we can peg a jackpot zone with any confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 By the way Bow... I have the other half of your snow magnet !!! Bagged salt is gone, bulk is in short demand and there is still 50+ days of snow to go. Still waiting for the Biggen to set this winter as an benchmark for year to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Jeez, GFS ****ed everything up this run (as far as the more amped solutions are concerned). That sheared out stream of crap over OH/IN was not there before... 00z 12z Also notice the lack of a prominent northern stream s/w over BC. Going to need something like that to dig and phase. 0z not getting it done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Couldn't anybody say that at this point though? Don't think we can peg a jackpot zone with any confidence. If you live, or have ever lived in the City of Toronto you can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Looks like by 156 a piece of the PV is going to try and swing down and phase. Might be a little too late but it'll be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Based on 144 plot, GGEM will be north of the GFS's solution. Trough already approaching neutral tilt over the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Looks like by 156 a piece of the PV is going to try and swing down and phase. Might be a little too late but it'll be close. And it's a miss. Still a crusher for portions of the lower Ohio Valley, but everyone else is WAB (whiffed at best). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 00z GGEM is only out to 168 hours but you can tell it's going to be big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 And it's a miss. Still a crusher for portions of the lower Ohio Valley, but everyone else is WAB (whiffed at best). Based on how it looked at 120, I would have thought even wider right of a miss. 7 days to go and all the main players still look good. Timing is the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 00z GGEM is only out to 168 hours but you can tell it's going to be big. With the way the GFS has been playing catchup today with the weekend storm, and the GGEM wobbling greatly with the weekend storm, it seems almost useless to look this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 GFS can't even keep any bit of consistency. Hell look at the 500mb mean from the period in question: Either the GFS is going to score a big one, or more likely with the PNA sailing off the cliff the GGEM and the Euro will be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 By the way Bow... I have the other half of your snow magnet !!! Bagged salt is gone, bulk is in short demand and there is still 50+ days of snow to go. Still waiting for the Biggen to set this winter as an benchmark for year to come. I think that experiencing a historic winter is more memorable than one storm (unless that storm is RIDICULOUS)...but if we could GET that storm in THIS winter....wow!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 00z GGEM might be a bit south of 12z, but big storm still on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 00z GGEM might be a bit south of 12z, but big storm still on. Any graphics/links? meteocentre is still showing the 0z/28 run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doc294 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Come on baby!!!!! Give us the big hit!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Instead of GFS trending NW, it went 200-300 miles Southeast. Going to be a long week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Optimism grows as the GFS goes into miss right mode, a sure sign of all other guidance being better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I have the same feeling this far out IMBY with this one as GHD... Basically again feeling no way this thing can cut enough to effect here outside of meh unless everything aligns right and we know how hard that is to do to get a GHD like event in the MW. Sure its not the GHD storm but the potential for a high impact high moisture winter event is about as big as its been and gets since then and it's really favoring the southern and eastern sub at this time like GHD.. 4 and now 5 with this one ghd mentions in one rambling. Poor Alek just got a calf cramp in the middle of dreaming about beer and bikini's at the beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Give the GFS a break. Not only does it need to figure out the s/w speed, but also to figure out what the northern stream is doing as well. That is hard work. If you push it to hard, it may snap with cabin fever........... Bottom line-still 100+ hours out! Where going to see alot of flip-flopping amongst the models for the next 3-4 days. We've seen how horribly the models have performed this season and this is no different. I expect a wide variety of solutions until atleast Saturday, lol. Timing and phasing are key with this event. In some aspect it does resemble the GHD 11 storm IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EvansvilleAce Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 no ice please... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Instead of GFS trending NW, it went 200-300 miles Southeast. Going to be a long week. And might I add the Ensembles moved SE also. http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=180&Day=&RunTime=00&Type=pnm And yes...it will be a long flip flopping week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 This reminds me of a good ol' fashion east coast goose chase. Gonna be a while before the models catch on to this baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 yeah this is not going to be easy to say the least on the models and us huggers until we get the first two events out of the way. lots of waffling which is to be expected. 7+days out... exciting none the less especially for the LAF through toledo/detroit crew to really add to their record snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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