A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 part 2 of the late Dec event is a good read. euro was so consistent...ended up failing miserably. I busted way high. a gfs run came in hot and that was all she wrote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 On 1/31/2014 at 1:06 PM, A-L-E-K said: part 2 of the late Dec event is a good read. euro was so consistent...ended up failing miserably. I busted way high. a gfs run came in hot and that was all she wrote. That Dec 13-14 storm was just gut wrenching here. Hope we don't have to go through that again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 On 1/31/2014 at 1:20 PM, cyclone77 said: That Dec 13-14 storm was just gut wrenching here. Hope we don't have to go through that again. I'm talking about the 21-22 event. looks like the NW trend hit hard by 12z on the 18th. EDIT: gets real good by page 15, we start talking about all the same stuff. just like GHD just not the blizzard http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42040-december-21-22nd-winter-storm-part-2/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Top 5 CIPS analogs for this storm, based off the 0z GFS at 120 hours. February 3, 1982 January 7, 1979 January 31, 1982 February 16, 1993 February 9, 1982 Full list here: http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/thumbnails2.php?reg=MV&fhr=F120&model=GFS212 #3 will make Friv giddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 On 1/31/2014 at 1:44 PM, Chicago WX said: Top 5 CIPS analogs for this storm, based off the 0z GFS at 120 hours. February 3, 1982 January 7, 1979 January 31, 1982 February 16, 1993 February 9, 1982 Full list here: http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/thumbnails2.php?reg=MV&fhr=F120&model=GFS212 #3 will make Friv giddy. I like #3 too!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 On 1/31/2014 at 1:30 PM, A-L-E-K said: I'm talking about the 21-22 event. looks like the NW trend hit hard by 12z on the 18th. EDIT: gets real good by page 15, we start talking about all the same stuff. just like GHD just not the blizzard http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42040-december-21-22nd-winter-storm-part-2/ Went back and read the AFD'S from my office leading up to GHD, on 1/27 the 12z Euro and GFS basically totally lost/suppressed the storm, only the GEM had it. The midnight shift AFD made it seem like that was the the case with the 00z 1/28 runs too. Since we're at about that timeframe now and it took til 1/28-1/29 for the models to have more of a consensus on GHD (and about 3 days out for the models to converge on the NW solution on 12/21-12/22) we'll probably have a much better idea on next week's storm either tomorrow or Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 On 1/31/2014 at 1:56 PM, Whitelakeroy said: I like #3 too!!! Yeah, works for me too. BTW, for those that want to know why I said Friv would be happy: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lsx/?n=01_31_82 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 On 1/31/2014 at 1:06 PM, A-L-E-K said: part 2 of the late Dec event is a good read. euro was so consistent...ended up failing miserably. I busted way high. a gfs run came in hot and that was all she wrote. The euro absolutely nailed the storm track though? I think it was the lead wave that caused places more to the north to get a whole lot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman99 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 January 31 1982..the benchmark storm for St. Louis. Hours and hours of thundersnow. Shut the city down for a week. Magnificent. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Although we may be trending towards a stronger low pressure center, we have a long was to go before we get to the solutions painting the monster QPF numbers in the cold sector like with GHD, especially if they southern vort doesn't close off or shears apart before taking on a negative tilt. As it stands now, this system looks like a combination of the PVB and that early-mid December mutant storm (Toronto's ice storm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 On 1/31/2014 at 2:20 PM, Snowman99 said: January 31 1982..the benchmark storm for St. Louis. Hours and hours of thundersnow. Shut the city down for a week. Magnificent. lol Apparently Toronto got hit hard by that storm too. My parents have often told me how snowy the winter of 1982 was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 On 1/31/2014 at 3:05 PM, Ottawa Blizzard said: Apparently Toronto got hit hard by that storm too. My parents have often told me how snowy the winter of 1982 was. How could that be? Everyone knows by the end of Jan/early Feb, the sun angle only allows snow to accumulate in the late afternoon/night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 On 1/31/2014 at 2:00 PM, RCNYILWX said: Went back and read the AFD'S from my office leading up to GHD, on 1/27 the 12z Euro and GFS basically totally lost/suppressed the storm, only the GEM had it. The midnight shift AFD made it seem like that was the the case with the 00z 1/28 runs too. Since we're at about that timeframe now and it took til 1/28-1/29 for the models to have more of a consensus on GHD (and about 3 days out for the models to converge on the NW solution on 12/21-12/22) we'll probably have a much better idea on next week's storm either tomorrow or Sunday. The only thing that I would note is that I believe there were Pacific data gathering flights (once things got a bit closer to the CONUS) leading up to GHD ... so I'm sure that helped with models being able to sort a few of the pieces of the puzzle out earlier than the models will be able to with this system perhaps (regardless of the eventual outcome)...clearly there are no such flights scheduled at any point now.....filed under FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 what is this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 On 1/31/2014 at 3:26 PM, MidwestChaser said: what is this a 60 yard toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Since I'm all about superstition, this event would also occur on a Tue/Wed as it looks now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 On 1/31/2014 at 3:38 PM, Thundersnow12 said: Since I'm all about superstition, this event would also occur on a Tue/Wed as it looks now.. To pile onto the comparisons.... I was posting elsewhere about 3 weeks ago that the last time I saw the pac jet look the way it did (strength, orientation, etc.) was Jan 2011.... Didn't have the same expectations...was just pointing it out at the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Through 51hr on the GFS, no major changes with southern stream wave, northern wave is a tad slow/further west up in BC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 On 1/31/2014 at 3:51 PM, Thundersnow12 said: Through 51hr on the GFS, no major changes with southern stream wave, northern wave is a tad slow/further west up in BC. should fall within the general range of solutions we've seen from the GFS lately 0z 6z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Looks like a bit more confluence at hour 63 vs. the 6Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Think this one will come a bit further west, tad more ridging out ahead of it and little more phasing at 75hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 On 1/31/2014 at 4:01 PM, Thundersnow12 said: Think this one will come a bit further west, tad more ridging out ahead of it and little more phasing at 75hr. NW and wetter in the cold sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 trends at H5 are looking good EDIT: i'm way behind, totally ninja'd, so embarrassing. BURIED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 On 1/31/2014 at 4:08 PM, A-L-E-K said: trends at H5 are looking good EDIT: i'm way behind, totally ninja'd, so embarrassing. BURIED Looks like 24-30 for you by this time next weekend.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 classic comma head...decent pivot point for LOT...some enhancement also possible verbatim...all FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Vort seems more well defined with a bit more of a neg tilt to it than it did on yesterday's runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Bring on the mixing here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
princessugly Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 On 1/31/2014 at 4:11 PM, MidwestChaser said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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