A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 6:32 PM, Thundersnow12 said: It is. Precip shield is further NW at at 0z Weds compared to 0z run as well as more more cold sector QPF across central IL. baby steppin, get a little bit stronger surface reflection and we're in business....although it sounds like we do ok as it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 6:30 PM, A-L-E-K said: hard to tell based on e-wall but sounds NW of the 0z run. Either way, suspiciously weak. On 1/30/2014 at 6:32 PM, Thundersnow12 said: It is. Precip shield is further NW at at 0z Weds compared to 0z run as well as more more cold sector QPF across central IL. 0.50"+ around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 6:36 PM, Chicago Storm said: 0.50"+ around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 GFS and Euro both look to have a nice defo/trowal signature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 6-10" for most of Northern & Central Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Not far from being a pretty impressive system looking at the cheap EURO maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 6:59 PM, gosaints said: Not far from being a pretty impressive system looking at the cheap EURO maps agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 7:00 PM, A-L-E-K said: agree have we had a system completely phase this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Congrats Madison Chicago! What a winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Euro snow maps I just pulled show from I-70 and north in MO/IL/IN with 6-12 inches from 12z Tuesday through 12z Wednesday. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 screw the euro....I'm riding the JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 classic buckeye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 6:30 PM, A-L-E-K said: hard to tell based on e-wall but sounds NW of the 0z run. Either way, suspiciously weak. If the wave doesn't close off fast enough and doesn't take on a negative tilt, a storm that weak seems plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 7:03 PM, gosaints said: have we had a system completely phase this winter? We haven't had a system completely phase in a couple winters. Not even GHD 2011 was a full phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Looking at the nam 84hr, brings up a question. Is there any meterological reason why the sw couldn't close off? That's one solution that has yet to rear it's head. If it did close off moving east what would that mean downstream for storm development...? much weaker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 lol^ chuck 'em deep. not just the 18z NAM verbatim but deep extrapolating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 LOT has already included "snow likely" wording for Tues/Tues night here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 9:13 PM, RJSnowLover said: LOT has already included "snow likely" wording for Tues/Tues night here. MKE talking watches with another N shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 9:14 PM, A-L-E-K said: MKE talking watches with another N shift I thought you were joking but nope ... SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. IF THE TRACK SHIFTS NORTH THEN EVENTUAL WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 NW trend seems be gaining steam ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 9:14 PM, A-L-E-K said: MKE talking watches with another N shift GB office said it will probably track more north too. Nothing wrong with mke mentioning if it shifts north a watch may eventually be needed. Watch will prob end up being a lock for the far se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 APX already talking we need to watch for some action next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 9:33 PM, BowMeHunter said: GB office said it will probably track more north too. Nothing wrong with mke mentioning if it shifts north a watch may eventually be needed. Watch will prob end up being a lock for the far se. agree I'm just playing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Pardon my ignorance....is this looking like it would be a "bend over and KYA goodbye" GHD type storm or more likely just a prolonged deep snow event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Only this system, GFS Things are going to be totally buried around here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 wagons west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 10:18 PM, Geos said: Only this system, GFS Things are going to be totally buried around here! driveway piles to the bottom of my mailbox right now....sheesh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The gfs has major handling issues. Because it's the only guidance that crushed the NEPAC ridge as this system dives down the backside. So it ejects much futher North than every other piece of guidance and it's own ensembles. The big change occurred at 06Z when the Heights were dramatically lower over the ridge out West. The other models don't show anything like this. So for the folks who are freaking out don't worry. I'd worry more about the chance the nam is right with that stupid wave in-between. That would be ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 10:29 PM, Angrysummons said: Low near ORD by the Monday 0z? wouldn't take it off the table but probably not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 10:29 PM, The_Global_Warmer said: The gfs has major handling issues. Because it's the only guidance that crushed the NEPAC ridge as this system dives down the backside. So it ejects much futher North than every other piece of guidance and it's own ensembles. The big change occurred at 06Z when the Heights were dramatically lower over the ridge out West. The other models don't show anything like this. So for the folks who are freaking out don't worry. I'd worry more about the chance the nam is right with that stupid wave in-between. That would be ugly. And if one doesn't understand the H5 height maps. In this case you can just compare surface maps showing where the SLP leaves Texas. And you will see the differences are massive. But if you just look at where the SLP is in the Ohio Valley you won't see the major differences. Since the GFS trackes ENE. While the other models all come out of SE Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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