snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Cold sector QPF looks like garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 gfs snow total thru 144 hrs http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014013000&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Looks pretty far north... Buries Chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Positive tilt trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Kind of looks like a garbage run to me though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 4:19 AM, Jrad08 said: Looks pretty far north... Buries Chicago Most of that is from the D2-3 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Looked like there was more energy being dumped into the trough/phasing at 102+ hours which led me to believe it would lead to a farther north solution but not really playing out like that later in the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 GFS is a disorganized mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 4:19 AM, JoMo said: Positive tilt trough It looks like it's neutral tilt for a bit around 126 but that lobe swinging around the PV overwhelms it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 4:23 AM, snowstormcanuck said: Most of that is from the D2-3 storm.You are correct... I think the gfs is having trouble adjusting after the first storm... Seems a little warm and lack luster return moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
princessugly Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 4:18 AM, ILSNOW said: gfs snow total thru 144 hrs http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014013000&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=144 Lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Total garbage for YYZ on that run. I think that run was way too north, though. I'll start buying it when I see some more consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 4:28 AM, WestCoaster said: Total garbage for YYZ on that run. I think that run was way too north, though. I'll start buying it when I see some more consistency. Sfc low goes from SE KY to DC to near Long Island NY. That's way too far north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 4:31 AM, snowstormcanuck said: Sfc low goes from SE KY to DC to near Long Island NY. That's way too far north? I believe people are confusing both storms. Latest GFS is a great hit for WNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 4:31 AM, snowstormcanuck said: Sfc low goes from SE KY to DC to near Long Island NY. That's way too far north? Oops, I meant south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 GEM at 144 has a 1009 over northern AL with an inverted sfc trough extending into the OV. I think it's safe to say the "big dog" potential of this storm is starting to fade a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 4:37 AM, snowstormcanuck said: GEM at 144 has a 1009 over northern AL with an inverted sfc trough extending into the OV. I think it's safe to say the "big dog" potential of this storm is starting to fade a bit. Not an unfair statement to make at this point as long as nobody punts. That was ridiculous. Plenty of time to go with many model runs left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 4:37 AM, snowstormcanuck said: GEM at 144 has a 1009 over northern AL with an inverted sfc trough extending into the OV. I think it's safe to say the "big dog" potential of this storm is starting to fade a bit. Don't punt this thing yet. Gfs is doing horrible at handling it. If euro and Canadian follow well that's a different story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 gfs looked much less phased at 500....good for us folks worrying about a nw shift. Looks like it also keeps cmh below freezing the entire time. Probably a lot of ice. Hopefully the 18z was the pinnacle of northwest phased solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 4:37 AM, snowstormcanuck said: GEM at 144 has a 1009 over northern AL with an inverted sfc trough extending into the OV. I think it's safe to say the "big dog" potential of this storm is starting to fade a bit. I don't need or want a big dog, I just want a wet one. A big dog to me implies a hard left turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 4:41 AM, Jrad08 said: Don't punt this thing yet. Gfs is doing horrible at handling it. If euro and Canadian follow well that's a different story No punting. Still looks likely to be a decent snow producer. Also remains a smaller chance for a more memorable storm. But whether the models shift north or south, starting to see some consistency develop where the trough is just too progressive, and there's not enough development of the upper level low, for copious amounts of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 4:45 AM, Angrysummons said: which makes the run impossible. upper level heights don't support that. It just is disorganized. you might want to loop the 18z 500 if you want to see disorganized which makes the phase idea less possible. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 4:44 AM, buckeye said: I don't need or want a big dog, I just want a wet one. A big dog to me implies a hard left turn. To me, a big dog is a big dog. Don't matter which way he's running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 4:50 AM, snowstormcanuck said: To me, a big dog is a big dog. Don't matter which way he's running. ...but it does matter which side he's taking a dump on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 4:44 AM, buckeye said: I don't need or want a big dog, I just want a wet one. A big dog to me implies a hard left turn. if you have a little dog I'd have its poncho on the ready if you don't want a wet dog. o wait you said you wanted a wet dog, guess have the shampoo on the ready to squirt it down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 4:52 AM, buckeye said: ...but it does matter which side he's taking a dump on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 4:53 AM, BowMeHunter said: if you have a little dog I'd have its poncho on the ready if you don't want a wet dog. no poncho thanks....gotta be wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 4:43 AM, buckeye said: gfs looked much less phased at 500....good for us folks worrying about a nw shift. Looks like it also keeps cmh below freezing the entire time. Probably a lot of ice. Hopefully the 18z was the pinnacle of northwest phased solutions. An ice storm it is. A good thing it's so far out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Canadian drops 6-8 for central ohio before it winds up and clobbers New York Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 4:50 AM, snowstormcanuck said: To me, a big dog is a big dog. Don't matter which way he's running. you're right SC, I just looked thru the ggem panels on wxbell....moderate event down here....like 6". Low gets to about PIT and transfers. About a third of the juice it was pumping out on the 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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