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1/28-1/30 SE Winter Storm OBS


NavarreDon

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Thank you for posting, this thing appears to be dead on.  I received exactly 2.5"

 

On a side note, anybody else watching this precip move back over Florida and South Georgia right now?  Intriguing. 

 

 Although it has largely been downplayed due to the first wave having just played out, I've been interested in and posting about the potential from the 2nd wave for a couple of days due to its "sleeper" potential because the model consensus has been teasing the coast from Brunswick to SAV to CHS with it for a couple of days, with some runs actually making it onshore. IF any precip. actually were to make it back to the coast, it would be wintry through tomorrow morning for most all coastal sections perhaps down as far as Brunswick. How often does that happen, especially from back to back systems? Everyone on the coast down to Brunswick is below 32 now (I'm at 30) and temp.'s will either hold about steady or fall a couple of degrees before that wave's precip. possibly impacts the area. Then there could be a degree or so of evap. cooling.

 

 TLH has been getting on and off IP for a number of hours. That's the general direction from which the precip would move. Also, in addition to Metal's reports of ZR/IP, one can see precip. coming back in from the SW over west and south of Waycross. There has been persistent virga over SAV for a number of hours but there has been just enough dryness to evaporate it. All of this seems to be related to that 2nd GOM wave and should be monitored for possible wintry effects on/near the coast. The forecasted position of the associated surface low off of the FL coast tomorrow would be consistent with SE coastal wintry events of the past

 

 

 From NWS CHS just a little while ago (6:47 PM), an excellent discussion addressing this:

 

 THE NEXT MAJOR CHALLENGE DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS THE   POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE SC/GA   COAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT ENE TO A   POSITION OFF THE GA COAST BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. ALOFT A 250 MB JET   STREAK WILL REMAIN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH MODERATE UPPER   LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. ANOTHER WAVE   OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONT OFF   THE FL COAST AND EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE CONCERN IS A SHARP BACKING IN THE 900-800 MB LAYER AFTER 06Z WITH   SSW FETCH DEVELOPING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK OVERRUNNING AND   SATURATION IN THIS LAYER. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH OMEGA TO SUPPORT   FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE   SC/GA COAST. THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW IS QUITE LOW DUE TO A LACK OF   APPRECIABLE MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE /-10 TO -20C/.   SLEET IS ALSO NOT TERRIBLY LIKELY SINCE THE UPWARD VERTICAL   VELOCITIES WILL BE SO LIMITED. WE ADDED MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE TO OUR COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT BUT DID NOT INCLUDE   ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO   MONITOR TRENDS TO DETERMINE IF THIS PRECIP ACTUALLY DEVELOPS AND   AFFECTS LAND AREAS...AT WHICH POINT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY   BE NEEDED DUE TO FRESH ACCUMULATIONS.  

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 Although it has largely been downplayed due to the first wave having just played out, I've been interested in and posting about the potential from the 2nd wave for a couple of days due to its "sleeper" potential because the model consensus has been teasing the coast from Brunswick to SAV to CHS with it for a couple of days, with some runs actually making it onshore. IF any precip. actually were to make it back to the coast, it would be wintry through tomorrow morning for most all coastal sections perhaps down as far as Brunswick. How often does that happen, especially from back to back systems? Everyone on the coast down to Brunswick is below 32 now and temp.'s will either hold about steady or fall a couple of degrees before that wave's precip. possibly impacts the area. Then there could be a degree or so of evap. cooling.

 

 TLH has been getting on and off IP for a number of hours. That's the general direction from which the precip would move. Also, in addition to Metal's reports of ZR/IP, one can see precip. coming back in from the SW over west and south of Waycross. There has been persistent virga over SAV for a number of hours but there has been just enough dryness to evaporate it. All of this seems to be related to that 2nd GOM wave and should be monitored for possible wintry effects on/near the coast. The forecasted position of the associated surface low off of the FL coast tomorrow would be consistent with SE coastal wintry events of the past

 

 

 From NWS CHS just a little while ago (6:47 PM), an excellent discussion addressing this:

 

 THE NEXT MAJOR CHALLENGE DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS THE   POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE SC/GA   COAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT ENE TO A   POSITION OFF THE GA COAST BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. ALOFT A 250 MB JET   STREAK WILL REMAIN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH MODERATE UPPER   LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. ANOTHER WAVE   OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONT OFF   THE FL COAST AND EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE CONCERN IS A SHARP BACKING IN THE 900-800 MB LAYER AFTER 06Z WITH   SSW FETCH DEVELOPING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK OVERRUNNING AND   SATURATION IN THIS LAYER. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH OMEGA TO SUPPORT   FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE   SC/GA COAST. THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW IS QUITE LOW DUE TO A LACK OF   APPRECIABLE MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE /-10 TO -20C/.   SLEET IS ALSO NOT TERRIBLY LIKELY SINCE THE UPWARD VERTICAL   VELOCITIES WILL BE SO LIMITED. WE ADDED MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE TO OUR COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT BUT DID NOT INCLUDE   ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO   MONITOR TRENDS TO DETERMINE IF THIS PRECIP ACTUALLY DEVELOPS AND   AFFECTS LAND AREAS...AT WHICH POINT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY   BE NEEDED DUE TO FRESH ACCUMULATIONS.  

This certainly won't help with the bridge situation in Charleston if this does come to pass

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697

WWUS42 KCHS 300141

WSWCHS

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC

841 PM EST WED JAN 29 2014

GAZ116>119-137>141-300945-

/O.EXT.KCHS.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140130T1000Z/

INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-COASTAL CHATHAM-LONG-

INLAND LIBERTY-COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-COASTAL MCINTOSH-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PEMBROKE...FORT MCALLISTER...SAVANNAH...

TYBEE ISLAND...LUDOWICI...HINESVILLE...HALFMOON LANDING...

TOWNSEND...DARIEN

841 PM EST WED JAN 29 2014

..WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY

* IMPACTS...OCCASIONAL LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE FOR DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS...

AND MAY RESULT IN SOME DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER LINES.

* LOCATIONS...COASTAL SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

* ACCUMULATIONS...OCCASIONAL LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED

ACROSS THE WARNING AREA. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A TENTH

OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

UNLESS ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY...DO NOT DRIVE TONIGHT. IF YOU MUST

DRIVE...BRING WARM CLOTHES AND A WINTER WEATHER SURVIVAL KIT. IF

YOU MUST VENTURE OUTSIDE...DRESS WARMLY. EXERCISE CAUTION WHEN

WALKING ON SIDEWALKS...DRIVEWAYS AND PARKING LOTS. MANY INJURIES

OCCUR DUE TO SLIPS AND FALLS ON SNOW AND ICE.

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Very light precip. has begun here in Savannah. I think it is sleet. I see a patch of heavier returns approaching quickly. If it makes it here intact, it will be interesting to see if it is in the form of sleet. That could make things very slippery in a hurry with 30 degree temp.'s. Metal said he had sleet from it.

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Very light precip. has begun here in Savannah. I think it is sleet. I see a patch of heavier returns approaching quickly. If it makes it here intact, it will be interesting to see if it is in the form of sleet. That could make things very slippery in a hurry with 30 degree temp.'s. Metal said he had sleet from it.

It just arrived here and is moderate sleet that isn't melting on the pavement. This could get dangerous real quickly for travel. Sleet wasn't predicted. Only the chance for ZR.

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 I'm really shocked at how cold it is. 10 degrees already. I'm pretty much the coldest spot in all of GA.  The low temp forecast could bust by 10 degrees or so. It's about 10 degrees colder here than in Atlanta.

Yeh, I was checking out a station (Harmony, NC) on Wunderground and it dropped 5 degrees in one hour. It's close to 10° there right now!  The closest station to me is dropping in excess of 1° and hour for the past couple hours.

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