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1/28-1/30 SE Winter Storm OBS


NavarreDon

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The precip fields are also too expansive, but I'm looking at the trends in the back edge rather than the actual position.

 

 

I said this earlier. RAP ALWAYS overestimates the snow intensity and how expansive the bands really are. It also has a NW bias with the bands. It was seen here in Atlanta. The heaviest snowbands continuously set up to the south of the city, but models were showing it north. The southern metro was 2-4 inches. The northern metro was .5-2.

 

Some people in NC will bust if they rely solely on the RAP. It overestimates storms for the most part. It did do well with Alabama though.

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Good for you.

ALL to often now meteorologist's forecast are based on a blend of the latest computer models !

I have no problems using the tools in hand to make a forecast including but not limited too a blend of the models.

Here in the Western Carolinas and NE Ga we had a meteorologist by the name of Charlie Gertz (4 WYFF NBC ) back in the late 70's till early to mid 90's. The guy was a wiz ! He successfully predicted the 88 Western Carolina & NE GA blizzard a full 2 weeks out, and he continued to forecast it till the day of the storm ! 

Back then you had to use more than a blend of the newest models,

He has since past away but he knew our region and wasn't afraid to go out on a limb !

So kudos to you SIR !

TY

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Apparently Cherokee Co, GA is opening all of their Fire Department buildings as shelter for anyone stranded on the roads that can get to one.

 

Also, All home depots are staying open for anyone stranded, so they at least have a warm building to sleep in tonight.

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The thing is local tv mets constantly down played the thread for atlanta and areas to the north. And frankly ffc, didn't help matters by NOT issueing at least an advisory for the non watch/warning counties. Again they did so twice before for snow that would last 20 minutes because of the chance of ice on the roads. But this time they didn't. And people didn't get any warnings because there weren't any actual warnings until it was too late.

 

 

I went to bed last night at 1130pm and Dahlonega had no advisory or anything.  Woke up to an advisory and by 1pm was under a winter storm warning.  The GFS sniffed this out back on the 18z run Sunday.  I kept telling my "likers" on my facebook page that we would get 1-2" and kept getting people saying that no one on TV is talking about it, etc.  It was rewarding that it all worked out since they were not getting that type of forecast from the news or the weather channel.  LOL

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Wound up with 1.75" here.  Roads were in good shape on my drive home late afternoon.  Still not terrible on my street, last I checked a couple of hours ago. 

 

We hovered near 30 degrees during the bulk of the snow, sleet, and freezing drizzle this afternoon and evening.  The combination of surprisingly "warm" temps compared to areas just to my west, along with it being daytime, and never having a period of heavy rates, kept the roads from being a disaster here.  Morning will be another story I'm sure.

 

Interestingly, while there was little ice or snow sticking to roads here earlier, I did have accumulation of slush in the pool. 

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I went to bed last night at 1130pm and Dahlonega had no advisory or anything.  Woke up to an advisory and by 1pm was under a winter storm warning.  The GFS sniffed this out back on the 18z run Sunday.  I kept telling my "likers" on my facebook page that we would get 1-2" and kept getting people saying that no one on TV is talking about it, etc.  It was rewarding that it all worked out since they were not getting that type of forecast from the news or the weather channel.  LOL

Yeah I was expecting 2" since I've been following it here.

 

But I wasn't expecting this kind of impact. I thought it would be fine.

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This is a brutal situation in Atlanta...it's hard to describe just how bad this is...you just wouldn't think 2-3 inches would shut down a city like this. You'd think there were a major disaster that happened with people walking out of their cars and leaving them...People are desperate to find shelter...hotels are booked to the brim.

 

https://www.facebook.com/groups/397839673695382/ this group alone on facebook tells the situation. It grew from 200 members to over 7000 today alone...Grim news. 

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up to 1.6" at 10:00. Flakes are a little larger now, still falling at a light to moderate rate. Temp holding at 19°. Can't wait to melt down the snow tomorrow to see what the ratios is/was.

 

My brother measured 2 inches of snow SE of Clayton while a high school teacher told me on Twitter that he got three inches.

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Still reading some war stories from down in GA about people who left work around 1:00 and still aren't home yet... either stranded, walking, or going to locations that have opened as shelters for the night. Definitely brings back memories of Raleigh 2005

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