Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

Wednesday storm possiblities


Mitchel Volk

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 432
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Sharpen that trough at 500 a little more then then NYC and Li and most of NJ would get a decent snow fall. Again let's see what the other models do. At this time I think it is 50/50 chance for NYC to get an inch plus.

one question - yes an inch worth could fall out of the sky above the city BUT how long does it take to moisten up the levels with the dry low dewpoint air in place to get it to reach the ground ? :whistle: I think on some of the radars there will be precip BUT it won't be reaching the ground

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sonewhat? It's really close with a couple more runs to go.

im not concerned with the precip field that will change from run to run...location of the low still sucks, trough not sharp enough...what has changed enough to make people think this is coming up the coast in any real way....?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

one question - yes an inch worth could fall out of the sky above the city BUT how long does it take to moisten up the levels with the dry low dewpoint air in place to get it to reach the ground ? :whistle: I think on some of the radars there will be precip BUT it won't be reaching the ground

Agree-big time virga on the northwest fridge

Link to comment
Share on other sites

we have a hat trick of meteorologists still expressing serious interest in this threat... Volk, Allen, Gregory.

 

"00z NAM computer model brings moisture from offshore storm even closer. I will stress again that this needs to b watched" -nick gregory via twitter

https://twitter.com/NickGregoryFox5 :weenie:  

 

then there is Bernie Rayno saying no way

 

https://twitter.com/AccuRayno

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Trough is actually getting sharper with each run if you look at the 500mb charts.

i agree the trough is stronger on the NAM....i just think most of the difference here is just an extended precip shield on the northern fringe, and not enough in the way of fundamental differences, especially this close to the storm.  If we were 5 days out, maybe I'd feel differently...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

even taking the expanded precip into consideration on the NAM (which is the best case scenario depicted in days), there is no serious qpf above the mason/dixon line.

Compare to the 1/26 0z NAM - precip barely makes it out of North Carolina. Tonight's has .2 up through NJ and LI.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

even taking the expanded precip into consideration on the NAM (which is the best case scenario depicted in days), there is no serious qpf above the mason/dixon line.

 

This isn't going to be 6"+ for anyone here, no one is expecting that. Most people are tracking this storm for the possibility of 1-3" from NYC S&E.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This isn't going to be 6"+ for anyone here, no one is expecting that. Most people are tracking this storm for the possibility of 1-3" from NYC S&E.

hard for me to see more than an inch or so....i guess when people talk about being in business or needing to be watched, i was thinking they meant more than snow showers.  Sure NYC, PHL, NJ could see a minor accumulation..

Link to comment
Share on other sites

https://twitter.com/NickGregoryFox5 :weenie:  

 

then there is Bernie Rayno saying no way

 

https://twitter.com/AccuRayno

 

i mentioned nick gregory and craig allen because they tend to be reasonably conservative.  it's not like snow88 is making the comments.  but, yeah, a significant event seems highly unlikely.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

hard for me to see more than an inch or so....i guess when people talk about being in business or needing to be watched, i was thinking they meant more than snow showers.  Sure NYC, PHL, NJ could see a minor accumulation..

 

South and east of NYC, pretty much all the models have accumulations there.

 

New RGEM ticked NW.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...