PB GFI Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 SREFs have a history of being too amplified. Look what happened with the last storm we had. Huh its QPF was perfect , you`re talking about specific amped members in the plume ? . Way different , The SREF couldn't have been better Printed out .78 at KBLM and 14 Plus inches fell at 20 to 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Nam looks the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 GFS at 4:30 and then off the PC and do some other things, provided the GFS doesn't go NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Nam looks the same. It slid SE a bit actually. It's the NAM. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Huh its QPF was perfect , you`re talking about specific amped members in the plume ? . Way different , The SREF couldn't have been better Printed out .78 at KBLM and 14 Plus inches fell at 20 to 1 Well, for us on the NW fringe (which is where the coast would be in this event), they were awful in last Tuesday's event. Less than 24 hours from the start, they were giving me a mean of 19" of snow. Taking out the amped members still put the mean at over 7". I barely saw a flake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 SREFs have a history of being too amplified. Look what happened with the last storm we had. It was right with the last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Lol at anyone writing this off as clouds or not a flake or SREFs are usually amped, etc. Just let things play out. As of now, we're ALL going to see some light snow on Wednesday. Upton - cloudy flurries also a really wimpy forecast the whole period - not what was advertised last week - cold is not impressive at all and the precip chances aren't either http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KOKX.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Y'all are too snow spoiled. You just got 2 events, one low end MECS in 1 week and clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Upton - cloudy flurries also a really wimpy forecast the whole period - not what was advertised last week - cold is not impressive at all and the precip chances aren't either http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KOKX.html You do know that these change, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 It was right with the last storm. Don't tell snywx that-he was expected to get 4x more snow than he got, just going off the SREFs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 18z RGEM looks about the same as 12z. Maybe a tick northwest. Don't tell snywx that-he was expected to get 4x more snow than he got, just going off the SREFs. It did a good job along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Still expecting anything from this storm at the point is a recipe for disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 It was right with the last storm. Srefs have been a train wreck for nw areas.. Tough to deny that and I'm sure everyone 40+ miles nw of the city will agree with me on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Srefs have been a train wreck for nw areas.. Tough to deny that and I'm sure everyone 40+ miles nw of the city will agree with me on that You`re prob right , it was great for us on the coast , but its edges were terrible for you guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Well, for us on the NW fringe (which is where the coast would be in this event), they were awful in last Tuesday's event. Less than 24 hours from the start, they were giving me a mean of 19" of snow. Taking out the amped members still put the mean at over 7". I barely saw a flake. I remember that lol.. Meanwhile every other model had us receiving 1" or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 You do know that these change, right? yes sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beez Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 18z gfs took a nw jog and has light accumalations into se nj. Im not totally giving up on a 1-2" snowfall into eastern monmouth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BionicMoron Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Srefs have been a train wreck for nw areas.. Tough to deny that and I'm sure everyone 40+ miles nw of the city will agree with me on that Even people 25 miles nw of the city will agree on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Lee Goldberg says light snow city south & east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Lee Goldberg says light snow city south & east. Alan Kasper says even in south Jersey it probably won't happen http://nj1015.com/cloudy-and-milder-alans-weather-blog/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Alan Kasper says even in south Jersey it probably won't happen http://nj1015.com/cloudy-and-milder-alans-weather-blog/ I guess it's over then. Thanks. Nevermind the fact that the article was written 10 hours ago which is an eternity in weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Huh its QPF was perfect , you`re talking about specific amped members in the plume ? . Way different , The SREF couldn't have been better Printed out .78 at KBLM and 14 Plus inches fell at 20 to 1 One data point is insufficient to prove your point. The SREF mean was far too wet to the NW of the urban I-95 corridor. This was largely due to a handful of very wet members that were also too far NW. This skewed the mean and gradient on the NW periphery. This is a common problem with the SREF suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 It was right with the last storm. This is an example of focusing too much of your own back yard. Assessing the accuracy of a model prog is very complex. It's not as simple as saying "well it said XX and I got about XX, so it was right." Besides the fact that most models come out with new data every 6 or 12 hours, they can be very good with some parameters or in some geographical areas but really bad in others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 One data point is insufficient to prove your point. The SREF mean was far too wet to the NW of the urban I-95 corridor. This was largely due to a handful of very wet members that were also too far NW. This skewed the mean and gradient on the NW periphery. This is a common problem with the SREF suite. Read on. Next one I wrote was it was great for the coast and bad for the edges Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Hey Joe, I still have that almanac! Its from 1995. I still sometimes use it to check some old central park data. lol...I have a copy or two left...this has been some cold winter so far in our area...I lost count of the days we had around five above...I didn't get as much snow as NYC last time...I have an inch or two left on the ground... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 n/w areas shouldn't really be paying attention at this point anyway....no one should,really...but still i don't see how srefs doing poorly away from the coast in the last storm has any bearing in this situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 18z GEFS mean is a brush with very light QPF. Probably one or two members still showing some QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 anyone north and west of Atlantic City is not going to see anything but clouds and a flurry at best - the air is way to dry so even though some radars might show precip most of it will not reach the ground in those areas with dry air and dew points so low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Wow the Nam is friggin close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Wow the Nam is friggin close Disagree, precip shield is somewhat closer, but nothing in my view fundamentally changed to make this any kind of a real threat north of m/d Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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