rossi Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I think the GFS Ensembles will be better for the coast -Go Monmouth - right Pauly??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I have to say, no offense, but that wink is super annoying. It's in every post. I think he may have a reason to be frisky in here....snow can certainly cause you to feel that way...or maybe he finds intimacy with some posters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I think the GFS Ensembles will be better for the coast -Go Monmouth - right Pauly??? Would amount to theft . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Ukie is west and gets precip into the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The gfs was somewhat disappointing, I thought maybe it could have at least improved. Time is starting to run out for any big changes, but a scraper is still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Think this will be a D-2" event NYC S&E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Craig is not only one of the best mets out there but he's a great guy...about 20 years ago when I was a member of the Long Island Weather Observers I made an almanac for NYC and sent him and some other members of the LIWO a copy of it...He called me at home and talked to my wife to thank me for sending him a copy of the almanac which I thought was very nice on his part......It was nothing special and in those days I did it all with a type writer and copy machine...there was no spell check back then so I'll leave it at that...Hey Joe, I still have that almanac! Its from 1995. I still sometimes use it to check some old central park data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Still have time to correcr, if it is going to happen. Although, I think it has to by the 0z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 ggem is also west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 ggem is also west. How far west? SNJ area QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 ggem is also west. The fact that today's temperatures are much warmer than forecast makes me think this cold push will not be as significant as forecast and the storm could be more N&W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The fact that today's temperatures are much warmer than forecast makes me think this cold push will not be as significant as forecast and the storm could be more N&W. That doesn't have anything to do with the current threat. The cold air is coming in as progged and should be as severe as forecasted once the front clears us later today. The question is how consolidated the energy is and how quickly the trough can sharpen and deliver moisture as far north as it can. We need for the southern stream to shoot east quickly and merge with that trough so that some chance of a real coastal development exists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swataz Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Upton has introduced the chance of snow, albeit slight, into their forecast. This is a change from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 That doesn't have anything to do with the current threat. The cold air is coming in as progged and should be as severe as forecasted once the front clears us later today. The question is how consolidated the energy is and how quickly the trough can sharpen and deliver moisture as far north as it can. We need for the southern stream to shoot east quickly and merge with that trough so that some chance of a real coastal development exists. The severity of the cold air has greatly been diminished by the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Does anyone have the GFS emsembles for Wednesday as yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The severity of the cold air has greatly been diminished by the models.Outside of the city areas could still see single digits tues,wed and thurs morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Outside of the city areas could still see single digits tues,wed and thurs morning. Yeah we'll see, I'm sure areas well N&W will see single digits, but the cold has been greatly modified since even a few days ago. My area was supposed to go below zero and now it may not even drop into the single digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The severity of the cold air has greatly been diminished by the models.Outside of the city areas could still see single digits tues,wed and thurs morning. I think it's the length of the cold that he means has been diminished. This frigid pattern is clearly breaking, but I still think we see a big snowstorm in the next 2 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Does anyone have the GFS emsembles for Wednesday as yet? They just initialized. Will be some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Unbelievable. I completely gave up in this last night and now I'm sucked back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Unbelievable. I completely gave up in this last night and now I'm sucked back in. I think its likely a miss but its interesting to see the GFS may be throwing its first real stink bomb on a storm this winter so far...its the only model really that went east on the 12Z runs and its actually gone east now 3 runs in a row while most others have gone gradually NW...this is especially true down in the SE where the GFS now is showing virtually nothing where WSWs are out in parts of GA for 4 inches or more of snow. I might believe it except for the fact the reliable RGEM after being very suppressed came well N on its 12Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 GEFS mean barely brushes the SNJ coast. This threat is on life support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 GEFS mean barely brushes the SNJ coast. This threat is on life support. I would give it until 0z runs tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 We really need something from this. Snow pack here is taking a beating today with lots of grass showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 We really need something from this. Snow pack here is taking a beating today with lots of grass showing. Is it really that much warmer there? We had less snow to work with than you and the snowpack here is still at least 4-5" deep with no bare ground showing anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beez Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 We really need something from this. Snow pack here is taking a beating today with lots of grass showing. ticks me off. left charleston to hopefully see some snow up here,,,now it looks like charleston gets the big ice/snow and were left cold and dry up here. such great timing I have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 ticks me off. left charleston to hopefully see some snow up here,,,now it looks like charleston gets the big ice/snow and were left cold and dry up here. such great timing I have Those are long odds my friend. I would play the lottery tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 ticks me off. left charleston to hopefully see some snow up here,,,now it looks like charleston gets the big ice/snow and were left cold and dry up here. such great timing I have In December 09 I left OKC on December 17th, we of course got the 12/20 storm and OKC got the epic 12/24 blizzard but if that 12/20 storm had missed us I'd never have lived that one down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Is it really that much warmer there? We had less snow to work with than you and the snowpack here is still at least 4-5" deep with no bare ground showing anywhere. The snow settled a lot after the storm ended-that's the flip side of having a high ratio snow event. There was maybe half the snow depth left, plus a good amount of bare spots where snow blew away from. So I'm sure with temps torching into the 40s today as well as the sun breaking through at times, that a lot of it will be gone where I live. It's melting like crazy here in NYC too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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