96blizz Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Can you please show me that on a map?On the phone, so no. But look at the H5 for both 18z GFS and NAM and the energy is def North. I want this storm too man. You seem contentious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I guess my post was ignored. Anyway, I'll wait until Monday and if there aren't any significant changes by then, I guess I'll give up on this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 GFS soon, let's see, if it's good I'll wait up for the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Good Lord you guys, enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 When looking at the GFS pay attention to the kicker and the STJ vort. You want the kicker slower or weaker and you want the STJ vort to be weaker and further north, not moving into Mexico. The weaker or delayed kicker allows for the more amplified flow. STJ interaction juices the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I know we all love snow and we have to remember not every storm will produce the goods, me personally whether we get a storm or not it will be fun just to track to see if the south cN cash in on a storm, just sit back and relax the weather will do what it wants, just in enjoy the fact we have something to track even if it doesn't produce for us.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 When looking at the GFS pay attention to the kicker and the STJ vort. You want the kicker slower or weaker and you want the STJ vort to be weaker and further north, not moving into Mexico. The weaker or delayed kicker allows for the more amplified flow. STJ interaction juices the system.Yup! GFS should start in a few minutes. Very interesting developments today to say the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I know we all love snow and we have to remember not every storm will produce the goods, me personally whether we get a storm or not it will be fun just to track to see if the south cN cash in on a storm, just sit back and relax the weather will do what it wants, just in enjoy the fact we have something to track even if it doesn't produce for us.. AGREED! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 00Z GFS Initialized... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Out to 21hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 00z GFS still a lot sharper with the trough than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 out to 57, it will be a miss south, does not look as good as 18GEFS for sure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Slightly NW than 18z. Not much precip though. Need STJ to phase in to see something to really happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Northern stream was better but no STJ phase this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Still very close to what 18z GFS op had Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I'll give it another day and see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swataz Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Still a couple of days to go, so let's see what the next 24 hours or so brings. This is half the fun, folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I'll give it another day and see what happens. getting really hard to stay optimistic after this run. We really needed a big shift to show on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricktamland Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 If anything, the 0z run backed up the 18z run, proving that the NW trend was not anomalous. Still enough time to trend IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The UKMET is definitely way west of 12Z and maybe a nose east of the 00Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Not enough tilt, it goes from this straight into a zonal flow. This run does hold onto the ball in mexico for longer. not sure what that means though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Anyone see frames from the 00z JMA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Not enough tilt, it goes from this straight into a zonal flow. This run does hold onto the ball in mexico for longer. not sure what that means though. It's not good. We need that s/w over Baha to eject and phase with the northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Anyone see frames from the 00z JMA? Unless what I'm seeing is not updated, it's SE and misses us entirely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 00z GEM started, I might stay up for a little longer lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The 00Z RGEM took a bizarre dive south with the precip in AL/GA/SC from 42-48...before that it appeared it was going to head north of all other guidance...as a result the GGEM will probably follow suite and be fairly suppressed beyond 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Navgem is a miss. JMA is a miss. GGEM is a scraper again...B&W maps already out. CRAS is a light to moderate hit. Overall trends tonight are mixed but overall not good. Let's see what the Euro shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Everything trended in the right direction, that southern vort was really lagging on this run. Notice how QPF amounts dropped off across the board but the >0.10 axis shifted slightly northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Navgem is a miss. JMA is a miss. GGEM is a scraper again...B&W maps already out. CRAS is a light to moderate hit. Overall trends tonight are mixed but overall not good. Let's see what the Euro shows. Considering how narrowly the Navgem misses its not that bad, its actually fairly close to the GFS/UKMET...I've been worried all day about how similar its been to the other models, its progressive bias is better than it used to be but still significantly present most of the time, I still think this event is a near miss but I would not be surprised if this ends up bringing some snow from I-95 east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Navgem is a miss. JMA is a miss. GGEM is a scraper again...B&W maps already out. CRAS is a light to moderate hit. Overall trends tonight are mixed but overall not good. Let's see what the Euro shows. The CRAS is basically a benchmark track but the CRAS tends to be 100 miles too far west usually with these coastals so it too implies a close miss right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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