GD0815 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Same here Dont forget this storm is a big deal for many places in the nation that don't normally get this kind of winter weather, and this level of interest has nothing to do with our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Nasty strip of ZR over the deep deep south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Looks much flatter than GFS out to 54. Looks OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The southern stream wave is phasing south of previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Looks much flatter than GFS out to 54. Looks OTS. At hour 54 the southern stream energy is still over Mexico City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Lets all keep in mind this is also the NAM GFS is on deck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 At hour 54 the energy is still over Mexico City.GFS had it further North... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 How do you know it's OTS when the run hasn't even ended Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Lets all keep in mind this is also the NAM GFS is on deckYou wink a lot. The NAM has been strong and worth watching out to this range for the past few storms. I am watching closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The 00z NAM looks nothing like the 18z GFS at H5. Not even remotely similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 You wink a lot. The NAM has been strong and worth watching out to this range for the past few storms. I am watching closely. Im friendly what i can i say. But yes you are correct the NAM has improved quite a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The NAM and GFS were almost identical at H5 until the kicker came into the picture. The NAM is much stronger with it and the kicker alone is the difference maker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The NAM barely has a surface low, OTS or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The 00z NAM looks nothing like the 18z GFS at H5. Not even remotely similar. Wow, I 100% completely and utterly disagree. Did you look leading up to the event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The NAM and GFS were almost identical at H5 until the kicker came into the picture. The NAM is much stronger with it and the kicker alone is the difference maker. The northern stream was a lot more amplified on the GFS as compared to the NAM. The NAM was considerably flatter but yes the big differences came at hour 60 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Wow, I 100% completely and utterly disagree. Did you look leading up to the event? I should have clarified post hour 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The NAM barely has a surface low, OTS or not. This is more of an overrunning event, and focused well south of us. The trough has to become a lot more consolidated and sharper to promote a big coastal low development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The northern stream was a lot more amplified on the GFS as compared to the NAM. The NAM was considerably flatter but yes the big differences came at hour 60 or so. at and past 60 the NAM is not as reliable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The northern stream was a lot more amplified on the GFS as compared to the NAM. The NAM was considerably flatter but yes the big differences came at hour 60 or so. Well, by hour 60, agree that there were differences, but it had nothing to do with the backside vort and entirely to do with the kicker. Just 12 hours earlier, the runs were nearly identical. The kicker is single handedly pushing this thing out. Saw your post above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Early on in the run you could see the energy was much further South than the GFS and flatter. That is huge upstream. Hoping the GFS keeps a NW trend going tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 at and past 60 the NAM is not as reliable You want to see the NAM more amplified at this stage. The fact that it's so flat really raises an eyebrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 FWIW it definitely trended N&W from previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Early on in the run you could see the energy was much further South than the GFS and flatter. That is huge upstream. Hoping the GFS keeps a NW trend going tonight! Can you please show me that on a map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 You want to see the NAM more amplified at this stage. The fact that it's so flat really raises an eyebrow. Not really and it shouldn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 This is more of an overrunning event, and focused well south of us. The trough has to become a lot more consolidated and sharper to promote a big coastal low development. Agree. Not likely to come much further north than it is now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Take a peak at the NAM at this time range before Tuesday's storm. A LOT closer to what happened. This one looks like its in a lot of trouble... Bit pretty cool for the South! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 All of a sudden "in the NAM we trust" lol NAM is out of range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 This storm will be great for the Mid Atlantic, but as for SNE, I'm not entirely sure. I'm just saying, if we miss this storm, we better get a snowstorm before the 15th because we are entering the danger zone with a gradient pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 All of a sudden "in the NAM we trust" lol NAM is out of range Yeah I don't get it, it made a jump N&W from its previous run and it's definitely out of range. If the gfs is flat, then I'll agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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