donsutherland1 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 thats great news. that would be around an inch for the city so id imagine coastal monmouth would probably be looking at a good 1-3" with any luck That seems reasonable to me. Hopefully, things will verify on the higher end of the range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I expect some backbuilding of the radar returns overnight as the slp moves NE way offshore and the upper level trof approaches. The current radar/satellite suggests game on for a couple of inches southeast of NYC. Looks like a close call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 There's some pretty heavy snow taking place right now near Atlanta, which models suggested would get brushed as the heavy snow/ice went south of them. I'd say that's a good sign for us down the road that perhaps this could be a bit west of the model consensus still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 There's some pretty heavy snow taking place right now near Atlanta, which models suggested would get brushed as the heavy snow/ice went south of them. I'd say that's a good sign for us down the road that perhaps this could be a bit west of the model consensus still. And winter storm warnings were just extended to the northernmost counties in GA, implying more precip on the northern edge, at least down in GA. A positive sign, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fwarder Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Its snowing pretty good in milford, de per traffic cams, but that was modeled. Just not sure about the timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Its snowing pretty good in milford, de per traffic cams, but that was modeled. Just not sure about the timing. It does not appear to have been snowing there at all either now or earlier today. Any chance camera was not from DE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJCoast Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 WWA extended north into Ocean County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beez Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 18z nam is a tad drier and moves precip out a bit faster. looks more like the 12z gfs run. no real surprise there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fwarder Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 It does not appear to have been snowing there at all either now or earlier today. Any chance camera was not from DE? it is snowing just west of there, check out the cams http://www.trafficland.com/city/DOV/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 18z nam is a tad drier and moves precip out a bit faster. looks more like the 12z gfs run. no real surprise there 1-2" for much of Long Island particularly south/east, around 1" for the city, coating/dusting north and west. South of I-195 and east of I-95, maybe some spots to 3". Looks good to me. We will need a lot of luck to see more than this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 1-2" for much of Long Island particularly south/east, around 1" for the city, coating/dusting north and west. South of I-195 and east of I-95, maybe some spots to 3". Looks good to me. We will need a lot of luck to see more than this. JM, so we are good for our 1-2 inches. Interestingly as one travels South to North on the Meadowbrook, snow will diminish which is the opposite we usually see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Upton going with 1-3 inches areawide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 a half inch would put me ay 30 for the year, i hope we get that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Upton going with 1-3 inches areawide. Not quite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Advisory for 2-4" for all of Suffolk. I think they are being a little bullish but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swataz Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 WWAs for Suffolk have just been posted by Upton: http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NYZ078&warncounty=NYC103&firewxzone=NYZ078&local_place1=&product1=Winter+Weather+Advisory#.UugWBhAo5hE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 a half inch would put me ay 30 for the year, i hope we get that I'm sitting on 29.5" also. 30" sounds so much better. We're right on the 1" line from the NWS and anything that falls will accumulate and make everything look beautiful again. Could be pretty slick out there tonight and in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 KBLM, looking like .16 at 15 to 1. If we get 2 , will get me to 38 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 it is snowing just west of there, check out the cams http://www.trafficland.com/city/DOV/index.html I don't see snow on any of those cams. Can you post a screen grab of what you are seeing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I'm sitting on 29.5" also. 30" sounds so much better. We're right on the 1" line from the NWS and anything that falls will accumulate and make everything look beautiful again. Could be pretty slick out there tonight and in the morning. I'm 2" from 30". I'm still fairly pessimistic about this one but it'll be interesting to watch unfold. It could have some nice surprises down in S NJ and over the twin forks. I think dry air still eats a lot of it up northwest of there. The air continues to get drier-dew is now -11 at Central Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Closest snow visible on traffic cams is south and east of Elizabeth City, NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Austinwx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I'm 2" from 30". I'm still fairly pessimistic about this one but it'll be interesting to watch unfold. It could have some nice surprises down in S NJ and over the twin forks. I think dry air still eats a lot of it up northwest of there. The air continues to get drier-dew is now -11 at Central Park. The NWS in Birmingham echoed your dewpoint concerns this morning in their AFD: "AS THE OVERRUNNING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUE TO INCREASE...THE COLUMN WILL BEGIN TO MOISTEN FROM THE TOP DOWN. IT`S INTERESTING THOUGH THAT DEWPOINTS ARE SO VERY DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AT THE CURRENT TIME...WITH BELOW ZERO DEWPOINTS IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SOUTH. IN FACT...THOSE DEWPOINTS ARE WAY DRIER THAN ANY OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY PICKING UP ON. WILL THIS IMPACT OUR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM TODAY? WE`LL HAVE TO SEE AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY. JUST AS AN EXAMPLE HOWEVER...OBSERVATION LOCATIONS IN SW MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA HAD SINGLE DIGIT DEWPOINTS...BUT WERE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER TEENS VERY QUICKLY AS PRECIPITATION REACHED THE SURFACE. WE ARE EXPECTING SOMETHING VERY SIMILAR TO OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS AND PRECIP REACHES THE SURFACE. THE DRIER THAN EXPECTED AIRMASS MAY ONLY PROLONG THE INEVITABLE BY A COUPLE OF HOURS...AS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF WINTER PRECIP REMAIN ON THE TABLE THIS MORNING." FYI, after this discussion came out, Birmingham had a 0 degree dewpoint at 9AM that shot up to 14 by 11:00 with snow, and the NWS hoisted WSW's for counties on the northern fringe that were expected to only get a dusting. Granted, WSW criteria down there is laughable by our standards, but perhaps our coastal areas can eek out a 2-3 inch surprise like they did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I'm starting to wonder if that big ridge out in the atlantic could be offering resistance for this to shoot ots. Just enough for a graze. Think thats possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I'm starting to wonder if that big ridge out in the atlantic could be offering resistance for this to shoot ots. Just enough for a graze. Think thats possible? If the system was a little more consolidated and slower, this could have rounded the corner and given us all a nice storm. Notice though how sheared looking the precip is down south and the positive tilt of the trough-that will cause it to turn a little but mainly head ENE out to sea. The pattern is too progressive to allow a turn and the energy is too spread out to allow for a powerful storm. It's just a ton of overrunning mainly from the warm Gulf over the cold dome which is abnormally far south. In Orlando today it's almost 80F-that air is overrunning air in the low 20s over the Carolinas and GA and triggering tons of snow/ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Mount holly THE MAIN SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPEARS TO BE SLOWING SOME MORE, WHICH LEADS TO THE TROUGH AXIS ORIENTATION CHANGING SOME. THIS THEREFORE AFFECTS THE DOWNSTREAM FLOW SUCH THAT ASSOCIATED LIFT ESPECIALLY IN THE 700-850 MB LAYER SHIFTS FARTHER NORTHWEST. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A RIBBON OF 700-850 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. THIS LIFT ALSO REACHES INTO A GOOD PORTION OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. AN EXAMINATION OF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THE AIRMASS BELOW 700 MB MOISTENING UP WITH TIME. DESPITE RATHER LOW SURFACE DEW POINTS, SOME SNOW HAS BEEN REACHING THE GROUND THIS AFTERNOON WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THE 12Z STERLING, VA RAOB SHOWED THE MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MB HOWEVER BELOW THIS LEVEL IT IS VERY DRY. THE ASSOCIATED LIFT SHOULD EVENTUALLY OVERCOME THIS AS THE MOISTURE ABOVE IS SQUEEZED OUT. IN ADDITION, THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE IS LOWER TO THE GROUND AND THE MAXIMUM LIFT INTERSECTS INTO AT LEAST A PORTION OF THIS DURING THE NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RATHER FLUFFY SNOWFALL, AND POTENTIALLY AN AREA OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES. ONE OF THE CHALLENGES THOUGH PERTAINS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE SNOW SHIELD REGARDING HOW MUCH ENDS UP NOT REACHING THE GROUND. THE NAM MAY BE TO WET ESPECIALLY ON ITS NORTHWEST EDGE AND ITS HIGHER THAN REALITY DEW POINTS COULD BE A FACTOR IN ITS HIGHER QPF ESPECIALLY FARTHER NORTHWEST. IT DOES APPEAR THERE WILL BE A SHARP WESTERN EDGE FROM SNOW TO NO SNOW, AND WE TRIED TO DEPICT THIS IN OUR POPS/QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS. IT IS VERY COLD, THEREFORE THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY STICK TO ALL UNTREATED SURFACES. SINCE THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD AMONG THE MODELS AND AFTER COLLABORATION THIS AFTERNOON, THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED WEST AND NORTHWARD A TIER OR SO OF COUNTIES/ZONES. BASED ON THE QPF FORECAST AND USING HIGHER RATIOS, WE UPGRADED SUSSEX COUNTY IN DELAWARE AND CAPE MAY COUNTY IN NEW JERSEY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. THE START TIME IS A BIT IFFY AS IT MAY A TAKE LONGER FOR THE SNOW TO REALLY GET GOING ESPECIALLY FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. FOR THE AREAS ADJACENT TO THE ADVISORY IT LOOKS LIKE AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATES, HOWEVER WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE WESTERN EDGE ALONG WITH RATIOS. GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE FARTHER WEST, WE OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE THESE AREAS ATTM IN THE ADVISORY AND ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WE USED A NAM/GFS MOS BLEND THEN MADE SOME MAINLY MINOR TWEAKS. THE HOURLY GRIDS INCORPORATED THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE INTO THIS EVENING TO HELP ASSIST WITH TRENDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Hi guys, I created a blog for this minor storm. Here is the link. http://liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&topicid=71898&groupid=10&Itemid=179 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DRVTS Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Upton; OVERALL...A LIGHT SNOW EVENT IS FORECAST...WITH LOW-END ADVISORYCRITERIA LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS SUFFOLK COUNTY NY...MAINLY THEEAST END. TOWARD NYC...AROUND AN INCH IS POSSIBLE. DESPITERELATIVELY LOW QPF VALUES...THE SNOW/WATER EQUIV SHOULD BE UPAROUND 20:1 AT TIMES DUE TO THE COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE AND A RATHERDEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. WORST CASE SCENARIO FOR NYC IS ABOUT 3INCHES...WITH 5 ACROSS EASTERNMOST LONG ISLAND. HELD OFF ON THEADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN NEW LONDON COUNTY AT THIS TIME...AND EVENINGSHIFT CAN REASSESS THE POTENTIAL NEED FOR ONE THERE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 18.7 degrees, I'll take my 1-2 inches if we get it here and I'll be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 New RAP gives us close to nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 verifies well with reports down south, radar trends and dewpoints, i would take the under on one inch for everywhere except maybe eastern suffolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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