JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Upton is at 20 to 1 , if we squeeze out .2 , huge win agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 From HM in mid atlantic forum: A 600mb omega dendrite bomb? If gfs looks similar, I'd double qpf for totals. Well if you sufficiently make dendrites and strongly with omega, the ratios will easily double. Depends on how strong the synoptic lift is and where that convergence zone sets up. GFS naturally makes this less confident. This is going to miss our area, I think it's pretty clear. Maybe some areas can pull of a coating but it will be fighting a lot of dry air on the NW side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Austinwx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 This system, at least down south, is producing accumulating snow farther north than forecast. See the WWA's just posted for north/central Alabama where they were not expected to receive more than a dusting of snow: http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=ALZ024&warncounty=ALC073&firewxzone=ALZ024&local_place1=&product1=Winter+Weather+Advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 This is going to miss our area, I think it's pretty clear. Maybe some areas can pull of a coating but it will be fighting a lot of dry air on the NW side. NW of NYC will struggle with dry air. S&E of NYC should easily pick up an inch at least. GFS/NAM/RGEM all have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 NW of NYC will struggle with dry air. S&E of NYC should easily pick up an inch at least. GFS/NAM/RGEM all have it. I think a lot of the precip that the 4k NAM and RGEM shows falling will be virga, even for Long Island. That being said, I do think some areas could pull off an inch or two if the intensity of the 4k NAM comes to fruition. Mainly east of JFK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I think across long Island from the southern state pkwy or Sunrise Hgwy south will do better than north of those locations from west to east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I think a lot of the precip that the 4k NAM and RGEM shows falling with be virga, even for Long Island. 0.1"+ for LI would not be virga. We're looking at a good 4-6 hours of light snow, if anything, the first hour will be virga as it saturates the column. The 4km NAM on E-wall which I prefer over the one on SV picks up well on virga and still gives LI 0.1"+. NAM/RGEM/GFS aren't all going to bust because of virga. Even if we don't get as much precip, ratios will make up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beez Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 0.1"+ for LI would not be virga. We're looking at a good 4-6 hours of light snow, if anything, the first hour will be virga as it saturates the column. The 4km NAM on E-wall which I prefer over the one on SV picks up well on virga and still gives LI 0.1"+. NAM/RGEM/GFS aren't all going to bust because of virga. Even if we don't get as much precip, ratios will make up. yea,,,I feel pretty confident of 1-2" snows from long island down into monmouth cty. maybe 2-4" in and around acy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 0.1"+ for LI would not be virga. We're looking at a good 4-6 hours of light snow, if anything, the first hour will be virga as it saturates the column. The 4km NAM on E-wall which I prefer over the one on SV picks up well on virga and still gives LI 0.1"+. NAM/RGEM/GFS aren't all going to bust because of virga. Even if we don't get as much precip, ratios will make up. Even with just an inch, this is why you absolutely cannot write off storms in this pattern. Models are horrible this winter until the 36 hour window. It's frustrated even 3-4 days before a storm people stating it absolutely won't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 "More likely now for a few inches of snow from NYC south & east overnight with highest amounts central/eastern LI & coastal + south Jersey" -nick gregory via twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 So when would first flakes start in NYC/LI per guidance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 So when would first flakes start in NYC/LI per guidance? From about 1:00 AM Wed to 7:00 AM Wed with a 50% probability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 15z RAP looks to get .25 into SE Monmouth county . Chances of 2 to 4 into coastal Monmouth ' looking possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I think a lot of the precip that the 4k NAM and RGEM shows falling will be virga, even for Long Island. That being said, I do think some areas could pull off an inch or two if the intensity of the 4k NAM comes to fruition. Mainly east of JFK. Models account for virga btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Euro in a few, NAM at 3, GFS at 4:30 then it is what it is and becomes nowcasting for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 This system, at least down south, is producing accumulating snow farther north than forecast. See the WWA's just posted for north/central Alabama where they were not expected to receive more than a dusting of snow: http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=ALZ024&warncounty=ALC073&firewxzone=ALZ024&local_place1=&product1=Winter+Weather+Advisory Also, the WWAdvisories have been extended inland to the N/W this morning in VA/NC - for example, Richmond wasn't under a WWA at 4 am, but it is now. Bodes well for a bit further inland track (or at least larger snow shield) - hoping we can eke out an inch along I-95, since I live 1/2 mile from the NJ TPK, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 There could be some real winners an losers with this one. I think cutoffs will be extreme as has been the case with the last storm. You could have 3" I'm Monmouth county and zero at ewr. Same thing out on the island. Could be 2" on the extreme south fork and nothing on the north shore of Nassau. Here I'm going with a coating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 RAP shows up to an inch for NENJ and then quickly up to 4" for southern Monmouth and all of southern NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 yeah new RAP 16Z is wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 OPC 24hr surface cast http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Atl_tab.shtml how much can we shake out from this??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 yeah new RAP 16Z is wetter Yeah I think a few surprises are in store. I see snow breaking out all the way in central Tennessee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Has QPF for KJFK gone up any? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Hazardous Weather Outlook HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1140 AM EST TUE JAN 28 2014 DEZ002-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ013-014-020-021-026-027-291645- KENT-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-WESTERN MONMOUTH- EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-COASTAL OCEAN- SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON- 1140 AM EST TUE JAN 28 2014 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AN AREA OF SNOW IS FORECAST TO SLIDE NORTH AND NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. WHILE THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE WITH HOW FAR INLAND THE SNOW SHIELD GETS, SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. AS OF NOW, ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE 1 TO 2 INCHES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Euro gets some light snow back to far NW areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 How much QPF for the metro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTSCAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SOME VARIABILITY IN WIND DIRECTION THIS AFTNDUE TO THE LIGHT WIND FIELDS. SNOW ACCUMS TNGT INTO WED UP TO 1INCH.KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SOME VARIABILITY IN WIND DIRECTION THIS AFTNDUE TO THE LIGHT WIND FIELDS. SNOW ACCUMS TNGT INTO WED UP TO 1INCH.KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SOME VARIABILITY IN WIND DIRECTION THIS AFTNDUE TO THE LIGHT WIND FIELDS. SNOW ACCUMS TNGT INTO WED UP TO 1INCH.KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THRU THISEVE. SNOW ACCUMS TNGT INTO WED LESS THAN 1 INCH.KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THRU THISEVE. SNOW ACCUMS TNGT INTO WED UP TO 1 INCH.KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THRU THISEVE. SNOW ACCUMS TNGT INTO WED UP TO 3 INCHES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beez Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Euro gets some light snow back to far NW areas. great news. seems like all models now spit out at least light qpf from 95 and points south and east. I'll take 1-3" in a heartbeat considering how bleak it looked just 24 hrs ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 How much QPF for the metro? The EC increased qpf from 0.02" on the 0z run to 0.07" on the 12z run for NYC. Unfortunately, I didn't have other 0z figures, but one can probably assume similar increases near what had been the fringes of the qpf shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 And the NWS updated their snowfall map a few minutes ago, showing the up to 1" amounts along the I-95 corridor and 1-2" now as far north as most of Monmouth County. Hoping the trend is my friend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beez Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The EC increased qpf from 0.02" on the 0z run to 0.07" on the 12z run for NYC. Unfortunately, I didn't have other 0z figures, but one can probably assume similar increases near what had been the fringes of the qpf shield. thats great news. that would be around an inch for the city so id imagine coastal monmouth would probably be looking at a good 1-3" with any luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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