Zelocita Weather Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 But the trend has most defintely been our friend & NAM & GFS were near carbon copies last night. You dont think this is real? If the GFS follows closely Ill buy a 1-2" or so, if not nada....although the RGEM/GGEM have been basically saying the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 If the GFS follows closely Ill buy a 1-2" or so, if not nada....although the RGEM/GGEM have been basically saying the same thing. seems like the NAM always manages to come up with one of its over the top solutions no matter what question now is how many media outlets and the NWS will buy into it http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2014012812/namconus_reflectivity_us.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 this one looks like a gutter ball on the water vapor loop...it needs to start a more northward trend or it's on to the next event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Looking at the snow showing up in SW Virginia right now. Most stations west of the Blue Ridge reporting overcast despite returns overhead, but I don't believe the precip shield was expected to be that far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Looking at the snow showing up in SW Virginia right now. Most stations west of the Blue Ridge reporting overcast despite returns overhead, but I don't believe the precip shield was expected to be that far west. It most definitely was not expected to be that far West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Wow. Nowcasting time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_12z/rloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_12z/rloop.html Looks like the 4KM NAM was the only one. Could it finally score a point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 NAM well N&W, brings a 1-3" storm for most of the Metro, more east...0.1" QPF line going to about KMMU I think DeBlasio should preemptively close schools. Trend is undeniable here. 12" here we come!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Wait I thought this was a miss? Gee.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The RGEM appears to be about .10 for NYC....more on LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DRVTS Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Looks like the 4KM NAM was the only one. Could it finally score a point? On the sim, Is 0700v019 Is that 8pm eastern? What is the 019? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 RGEM looks similar to the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 On the sim, Is 0700v019 Is that 8pm eastern? What is the 019? 07Z = 2 AM on frame 19. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Yup RGEM/NAM within about 20 miles on the 0.1" QPF line... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 RGEM looks similar to the NAMOh damn, these models keep playing with us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Well the 12z GFS has initialized, important run for many reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Dry air is something else to consider on the NW edge of the snow shield-how much will be eaten by the dry air mass? I don't think much falls to the ground northwest of where the 0.1" line is on the models, but we'll see. I'd be quite surprised if I end up with more than 1-2" IMBY, maybe 1" in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 What a close call! Wow. Rooting for you guys in NYC, but looks like a def. fringe event up our way regardless of any movement. Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 12z GFS is dry NW of I-95. It does show some very light precip in the area for a few frames but my guess is that's just virga. I still think based on the RGEM/NAM that 1-2" is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 What does it show for NYC and jersey coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Few inches is better than none is suppose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beez Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 What does it show for NYC and jersey coast? looks like .10 line gets into all of monmouth cty with very light precip into nyc. nothing like the nam but a slight improvement from 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 GFS has 0.1" to NYC....very similar to other guidance. I would say a 1-2" event on average for the metro,a little less west, a little more east http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=030ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_030_precip_p24.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 12Z NAM-WRF 24 hr precip ending tomorrow morning. Most of this is done by 5-6 am but this frame captures about the max amounts including Eastern LI. Looks like the 4-6 mm stripe (up to .2"+ qpf) runs from Eastern LI through Monmouth County verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 From HM in mid atlantic forum: A 600mb omega dendrite bomb? If gfs looks similar, I'd double qpf for totals. Well if you sufficiently make dendrites and strongly with omega, the ratios will easily double. Depends on how strong the synoptic lift is and where that convergence zone sets up. GFS naturally makes this less confident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 From HM in mid atlantic forum: A 600mb omega dendrite bomb? If gfs looks similar, I'd double qpf for totals. Well if you sufficiently make dendrites and strongly with omega, the ratios will easily double. Depends on how strong the synoptic lift is and where that convergence zone sets up. GFS naturally makes this less confident. Upton is at 20 to 1 , if we squeeze out .2 , huge win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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