FLweather Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I think as long as the flow gets "backed" to the SW at 500mb, then there will be at least light qpf where the models are showing this. I still think there is a little room to come NW with the qpf over bama and GA through about RDU and CLT. NW of there, IMO this isn't gonna be your storm With all due respect. The way the models have been from one extreme to the other with just last couple runs seeing "better trends". Its still too early to call this anybodys storm imo. Not till the trends are fully caught onto and clear cut consistency from model run to model run. There is still too many questions left un answered to say this is the sweet spot or there is the sweet spot. As far as we all know this could surprise all of us by doing a complete 360... turning this into a heavy mountain snowstorm. But by 0z and 6z tonight and tomorrow should have some clear cut consistent runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 HPC thinks system jogs way way NW per latest >1" snow probabilities. Probably based on climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Ryan Maue's Opinion Based on GFS ptype & 850 mb temps 3-4°C, expecting freezing rain & pellets rather than fluffy/wet snow for Carolinas http://t.co/PTwiF8HCeF Twitter image Yeah this has always been an IP/ZR storm for the GA/SC coast...the NC coastal plain has more of a chance at mostly snow IMO, look at how the ZR just cuts off in NC and it's IP only. I imagine mostly snow for NC, save extreme south east coastal counties, per the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 HPC thinks system jogs way way NW per latest >1" snow probabilities. Probably based on climo. didn't think I would be seeing a map like that 24 hours ago for our area, considering this is going to be a southern al, southern ga, and Carolina's storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 With all due respect. The way the models have been from one extreme to the other with just last couple runs seeing "better trends". Its still too early to call this anybodys storm imo. Not till the trends are fully caught onto and clear cut consistency from model run to model run. There is still too many questions left un answered to say this is the sweet spot or there is the sweet spot. As far as we all know this could surprise all of us by doing a complete 360... turning this into a heavy mountain snowstorm. But by 0z and 6z tonight and tomorrow should have some clear cut consistent runs. I understand that there is wiggle room left in the models, but I just don't see this getting back all the way to lets say HSV CHA GSP and AVL....The setup doesn't favor them right now on this solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Looks like hpc doesn't believe in the sharp cutoff. More than likely just climo though. Happy for people who don't see snow, bury them. Good luck to everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Does anyone know anything about that CRAS Model? It hammers C NC and W NC. It's way inland with rain for most of SC and south and east of Raleigh. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/model_l.html I'm guessing it's just a BS model, though. It does give DC snow, so maybe it is realistic considering the way things have trended for the Mid-Atlantic this year, LMAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Nice graphic from Mike Dross at Wright-Weather 12Z NAM Total Snowfall. #NCwx #SCwx #GAwx #FLwx http://t.co/tyaTPEsaAu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 IMO Climo does NOT favor that much of a NW trend. With an arctic press, chances are its error would be to far NW. I know this can still change a bit more, but I just don't think this goes that much further NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 The GFS now appears to be the NW outlier with respects to the precipitation shield in NC with the NAM a close second. The rest of the guidance keeps the precip confined to the coastal plain/immediate coast. Best I can tell, the GFS drops about .20 qpf around RDU up to my backyard...but much higher and lesser amounts are only ~30 miles away in each direction. There's going to be a lot of whaling and gnashing of teeth for central NC snow lovers the next two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Does anyone know anything about that CRAS Model? It hammers C NC and W NC. It's way inland with rain for most of SC and south and east of Raleigh. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/model_l.html I'm guessing it's just a BS model, though. It is a BS model but much like the NAM at 84 hours and the NOGAPS it's very useful due to having a big west bias, I've seen it tracks lows over NYC when we had 40/70 tracks that gave us snow it tends to be 50-100 miles west of reality much of the time, in this case it's about where I'd expect to see it down south and way west of where I would expect it up in the mid Atlantic and northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Nice graphic from Mike Dross at Wright-Weather 12Z NAM Total Snowfall. #NCwx #SCwx #GAwx #FLwx http://t.co/tyaTPEsaAu Just a 50 mile NW shift at this point would put my area at 3-5 inches. I'm so glad I live towards the East and South of the metro...usually I get burned for it. I think the amounts are going to vary so much in the Atlanta metro just because of how large and expansive it is. North suburbs might not get much, while the South suburbs do a lot better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Looking at the nam, it wouldn't take much of a shift northward to bring a major snowstorm to Atlanta. Looks like there is major snow as far north as La Grange and Macon. Or would that be sleet ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Looking at the nam, it wouldn't take much of a shift northward to bring a major snowstorm to Atlanta. Even if current depictions held I think ATL would see more snow because the overrunning would generate more precipitation than most guidance shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 It is a BS model but much like the NAM at 84 hours and the NOGAPS it's very useful due to having a big west bias, I've seen it tracks lows over NYC when we had 40/70 tracks that gave us snow it tends to be 50-100 miles west of reality much of the time, in this case it's about where I'd expect to see it down south and way west of where I would expect it up in the mid Atlantic and northeast Interesting. Thanks. I've seen it posted in the Mid-Atlantic forum a few times and wasn't sure. Even if current depictions held I think ATL would see more snow because the overrunning would generate more precipitation than most guidance shows Do you think overrunning will generate more precip further westward up into upstate SC and central (or even western) NC, as well? IIRC, there was some serious overrunning with the Christmas/Boxing Day Storm in 2010 which allowed places like Hickory to record over a half-foot of snow. It's interesting what you noted earlier about the Canadian because it had the storm pretty similar to what is now being shown by the GFS and NAM (actually, it was a little further west, but still) and now it has nearly lost it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 GEFS mean ticked NW even from the 6z run, for the Carolinas, I don't know what is going on with this model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Interesting. Thanks. I've seen it posted in the Mid-Atlantic forum a few times and wasn't sure. Do you think overrunning will generate more precip further westward up into upstate SC and central (or even western) NC, as well? IIRC, there was some serious overrunning with the Christmas/Boxing Day Storm in 2010 which allowed places like Hickory to record over a half-foot of snow. Not as sure there, I'm more worried near NRN GA because any WSW or SW flow aloft for them is upslope and tends to be missed in these systems by models on occasion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 For KCHS, 12z GFS Meteostar is insanely warm at 850/925mb level, and would indicate pretty much all ZR with SFC temperatures below 0C pretty much throughout the event. I seriously think the warm nosing is highly overdone in this case, don't know why really, considering both the SLP and SHP are both in classical locations for snow vs ice in this scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 GEFS mean ticked NW even from the 6z run, for the Carolinas, I don't know what is going on with this model Yeah... .50 to RDU and .25 to CLT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 12z GFS ens mean continues its slow trend west with heavier amounts, 0.75 runs from about Augusta to Elizabeth City, 0.5 to Durham. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Yeah... .50 to RDU and .25 to CLT Across the board wetter, the coast is wetter too. 0.75" line almost to RDU, actually really close to Cold Rain. If a single other global model agreed it would give some credence, but it's all alone right now. Not even the JMA. Well I guess the CRAS model agrees, whatever that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cg2916 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 The SREF is still hammering NW Carolinas and Upstate GA. What's up there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 One thing that has been happening the past couple of runs that may be helping to pull the NS energy further SW is some energy diving over the PAC ridge...Also, when comparing the GEM v/s GFS it's completely different in handling the low over Baja, even at hour 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 CHS is supposed to get into the 60s on Monday, the day before all of this is supposed to happen. The Mon temps may affect things farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I would say if your metro and even a bit north or east of there, snow amounts would be lighter, but I still think possible for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I like it. Starting to put I-20 corridor into play. 12z GFS ens mean continues its slow trend west with heavier amounts, 0.75 runs from about Augusta to Elizabeth City, 0.5 to Durham. gfsensmean.JPG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 More from Mike Dross at Wright-Weather NAM simulated winter radar view Tuesday night. #NCwx #SCwx #GAw http://t.co/VSnFK0btDz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 CHS is supposed to get into the 60s on Monday, the day before all of this is supposed to happen. The Mon temps may affect things farther south. noticed that, but the same thing essentially happened in Feb 1973, with KCHS high the previous day was 57 before the storm came in that year. was in the 20's, started out as IP/ZR and transitioned to snow, storm total 7.1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 For those who are interested the CMC took that energy in the bajah and makes it a two contour closed low that just sits there spinning practically like a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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